This text is just a tiny update of what I wrote a month ago. The results are almost unchanged. The La Niña odds have considerably strengthened.
According to RSS AMSU, the first 8 months were the 2nd coldest January-August period in this century so far (second among 11 candidate years).
The top 15 ranking of the years 1979-2011 according to the average temperature during the first eight months is as follows:
- 1998: 0.642
- 2010: 0.546
- 2002: 0.364
- 2005: 0.344
- 2007: 0.310
- 2003: 0.293
- 2001: 0.225
- 2004: 0.211
- 2006: 0.209
- 2009: 0.177
- 1991: 0.163
- 2011: 0.157
- 1995: 0.152
- 1983: 0.116
- 1988: 0.111
Some warming may have been taking place in recent months – because of the delayed effect of the disappearing La Niña a few months ago. But it may be replaced by another cooling in the coming months.
The ENSO oscillations have returned to the negative, La Niña territory after a few months in the neutral interval. For example, the latest weekly ENSO report says that the ONI 3.4 anomaly is at –0.6 °C (and the 1+2 region is at –0.7 °C) – it went down from –0.4 °C a month ago and has slipped below –0.5 °C, the boundary of the La Niña conditions, again.
Some of their models still show that there are equal odds that we will see neutral conditions in the Fall – but the next update is likely to predict another La Niña episode for the winter 2011/2012, in agreement with very recent NOAA press releases. In fact, the picture from Thursday shows a nice blue spot near the South American Western beaches:
I think that the blue spot sits at an important place – and is already big enough – and could help to decide that La Niña conditions will return on a more permanent basis. Just to be sure, that would be the second consecutive La Niña episode.
Whatever will happen to ENSO in the Fall, I think that it will only substantially influence the global temperatures in 2012. In the rest of 2011, we will see comparable temperature anomalies as in the first half of 2011 which may be smaller than the anomalies from July and August. That will mean that 2011 may slightly jump from the 12th warmest place (preliminary ranking), perhaps to a spot in the top ten, or drop slightly – but it will surely not get to the medal places for the warmest years.
It's more likely than not at during 2012 or at the beginning of 2013, we will actually see an RSS climate record that will display a cooling trend during the most recent 15 years – partly because of the expected 2011/2012 La Niña, partly because the warm 1998 year will emerge at the beginning of the 15-year interval. Recent years increasingly paint the story that the "global warming" stopped more than a decade ago.
The first 11 years of this century surely display a cooling trend. One may believe that during the century (e.g. in 2040), the sign of the slope will be reverted but it doesn't have to be. There doesn't exist any convincing scientific evidence that it has to.
Bonus: Gore vs Obama
The video above is about Al Gore's assault against his fellow undeserved peace Nobel prize winner Barack Obama. Imagine how much Gore likes peace if he can't live in peace even with his fellow left-winger.
See Manbearpig's blog for a few authentic words on his new hatred against Obama.
Are cosmic rays driving a significant part of climate change on Earth? Bullshit, Manbearpig says. Henrik Svensmark would surely never dare to suggest such a thing! Gore attacks Anne Jolis of WSJ without even linking to her article. Imagine that this disgraceful, dishonest, and would-be authoritative jerk would have the power to decide about the fate of the media: the Chinese communists would become the golden standards of freedom of press in comparison.
Gore's carbon indulgence company, Generation Investment Management, has just announced that another company called the Alrehaif Group is doing exactly the same thing and stealing tons of the money from people in exactly the same way, even using a similar website design, as Al Gore's company. Al Gore's company thinks that the Alrehaif Group is a fraud who should be arrested. Will someone buy a mirror for Al Gore?
Climate Parody Day
I remind everyone that both climate realists and climate alarmists agreed to organize a Climate Parody Day on September 14th, a kind of climatic April fools' day. Even Al Gore agreed to publish lots of stories about catastrophes caused by global warming on the very same day, to make himself look even more ludicrous than usually. If you have some good ideas about jokes and pranks for this not so serious day, let me know.
Windows 8 and speed of booting
This is completely off-topic but pretty spectacular. So if you have a... second...
Available in 2012.