Saturday, October 08, 2011 ... Français/Deutsch/Español/Česky/Japanese/Related posts from blogosphere

Gore lost the Guardian: weather not caused by humans

Al Gore thinks that unpleasant weather events are caused by humans, namely by evil witches who are telepathically connected to the evil Big Oil and who should be burned at stake in a carbon-neutral way waiting to be discovered. Last week, he said that scientists have a "clear proof that climate change is directly responsible for the extreme and devastating floods, storms and droughts that displaced millions of people this year."

Can you actually find a scientist who would be suggesting such a link?

You may look for for scientists who suggested such a link as a working hypothesis years ago. What will they tell you about Gore's statements? Dr Myles Allen is a textbook example of such a scientist and he says:

Al Gore is doing a disservice to science by overplaying the link between climate change and weather
Myles Allen has co-authored papers such as "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003" but he says that the link is just "plain wrong", as the subtitle in the Guardian says.

There is no theoretical or empirical evidence that would indicate that certain kinds of weather events wouldn't occur at all if there were no humans. But more importantly, there isn't even any evidence that anything unusual is happening about the weather events. This is a point that a remarkably high number of people, including those that call themselves skeptics, still misunderstand.

Thermometers show that during the last century or last 40 years, the global mean temperature changed by 0.6 or 0.4 °C or so. So this innocent and artificial quantity did see a change: its causes remain questionable. However, there is no analogous observation that would indicate that the total precipitation is changing, the frequency of hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts etc. is doing something else than what it has been doing for millions or billions of years – namely to fluctuate.

Off-topic: Seven minutes of the termination of the world economy. Ron Paul and some more radical thinkers are on the show. Rapper Robert Foster has been confiscated by Russia Today, to highlight the changes of the world economy. ;-)

The media are more efficient in making "stories" out of every rain and wind and we're bombarded by all these stories – it's much easier to spread them in the modern Internet era – but the actual underlying events haven't qualitatively changed. And there's no reason to believe that they should have changed. All meteorological events depend on some kind of gradients, fast changes of pressure, humidity, and so on, and "global warming", even if you accept that it makes sense to use this term, only very slowly changes the overall average temperature so it can't have any detectable impact on the statistics of meteorological events.

People should notice that the actual scientists - including those that are supposed to be the ultimate source of Gore's bold proclamations – admit that Gore's propositions are just plain lies. And people should realize that it's not just Al Gore who is a chronic liar: they should spend much more time by checking and rechecking statements done by many other people or all people. Folks, you just shouldn't be mindless sheep!


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reader aaron said...

Global warming should generally stabilize weather and improve crop production and reduce catastrophic weather. However, if there is a 60 year ocean cycle that brings cold water to the surface ~ every 30 years, extreme weather could be worse as the difference between the ocean and atmosphere temperature would be greater than it otherwise would be during cold phases (at least initially). Increased windshear would mean more storm risk and higher humidity from increased winds would mean low temps and high humidity leading to increased communicable disease and crop blight and other diseases.

This would only be for a small part of cold phases. Things would be better the rest of the time. And at the beginning warm phases when the atmosphere is cool there would be similar weather that would be lessened by additional heat retained in the atmosphere.

More important, we need to realize we've been extremely lucky with weather the last 30 years and be prepared to deal with shock regardless if they are made worse or better by global warming.