Wednesday, November 07, 2012

RSS AMSU: 2012 seems to be 11th warmest on record

For almost 15 years, the climate alarmist bigots have been dreaming about another warm year that would dethrone 1998 as the warmest year on the satellite temperature record. It's totally clear by now that year 2012 won't become this divine signal of their holy global warming they have been desperately waiting and praying for. In fact, after the first 10 months, it doesn't seem to make it into the top ten.




The UAH AMSU satellite temperature product recently experienced some problems and had to upgrade to a new version. In this ranking texts, I usually refer to RSS AMSU which seems to be an advantage now.

The ranking of the years 1998-2011 according to RSS AMSU is:

{1998, 0.54871},
{2010, 0.47591},
{2005, 0.330003},
{2003, 0.32197},
{2002, 0.314142},
{2007, 0.258975},
{2001, 0.247164},
{2006, 0.229666},
{2009, 0.225882},
{2004, 0.202923},
{1995, 0.158027},
{2011, 0.147427},
{1999, 0.102792},
{1997, 0.102523},
{1987, 0.0982575},
{2000, 0.0915137},
{1991, 0.081},
{1990, 0.0751534},
{1988, 0.0669781},
{1983, 0.066137},
{2008, 0.0502459},
{1996, 0.0463962},
{1994, 0.0285479},
{1981, 0.0207808},
{1980, 0.0146995},
{1979, –0.0941425},
{1993, –0.117159},
{1989, –0.119378},
{1986, –0.138775},
{1982, –0.1734},
{1992, –0.179363},
{1984, –0.223995},
{1985, –0.260586}.

Sorry for the ludicrous excess precision; I didn't want to spend the time to round the numbers. The average temperature anomaly during the first 10 months of 2012 was +0.2018 °C. If this remained the score for the whole year, 2012 would be the 11th warmest year of the RSS AMSU record.

It's very likely that the November+December 2012 average anomaly will deviate from +0.2018 °C by less than 0.2 °C and because these two months have a 5 times smaller impact than the previous 10 months, I expect the anomaly to change by less than 0.04 °C from the current 0.2018 °C. It seems "very likely" to me.

So 2012 is "very unlikely" to drop to the rank 12th or lower. However, if the last two months of the year will be substantially warmer, 2011 can make it up to the 6th or 7th place, not higher.



BSP (CZ): I don't know. Frost destroys the sunshine...

As I mentioned a month ago, the widely expected 2012-2013 El Niño seems to be delayed, to say the least, and the ENSO neutral conditions continue even though in the latest weekly ENSO report, they're very close to the El Niño threshold again. Without a clear El Niño this winter season, it seems very likely to me that even 2013 will refuse to become the warmest year. That would extend the period without a new warmest year to a whopping 15 years.

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