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Another useless climate conference: Warsaw

Today, COP19/MOP9 began in the Polish capital. It will continue through November 22nd. Yes, it's already the 19th COP (Conference of the [UNFCCC] Parties).

The previous United Nations climate hysteria conferences took place in Berlin, Geneva, Kyoto, Buenos Aires, Bonn, The Hague, Bonn, Marrakech, New Delhi, Milan, Buenos Aires, Montreal, Nairobi, Bali, Poznań, Copenhagen, Cancún, Durban, and Doha. Next year, they will travel somewhere to Peru. I tried to use the bold face for some of the conferences that were more memorable than others – Kyoto because it gave the world the suicidal protocol, Copenhagen because it was the most important failure so far (around the Climategate time), and Bali because it was arguably the most attractive destination. ;-)



Warsaw: some nice modern skyscrapers behind the staircasy Stalinist skyscraper, a copy of similar buildings in Moscow.

Now these clowns go to Poland for the second time – which is a surprising overrepresentation of Poland, a country that produces about 85% of electricity from good old King Coal. (Our percentage in Czechia is just dropping below 50%, from 70+% in 2000 AD, despite the fact that no Czech tries to paint our country as a "green leader", unlike Germany whose usage of coal remained close to 60%.)

In fact, next Monday and Tuesday, Warsaw is also organizing The Coal and Climate Summit. My understanding is that it will be an ordinary coal conference and the name is chosen to fool the stupid environmentalists into thinking that the coal industry is their friend.




It's sort of remarkable that almost no attention of the media is dedicated to the coal conference – even though coal produces 1/3 of the electric power for the world. The climate hysteria produces nothing and these clowns are "only" stealing about 1% of the world's GDP but they're a big story in the media (and yes, I admit, on this blog, too).




It's sort of remarkable that the climate change conferences are still being organized despite the fact that they haven't reached anything useful at all and it is extremely unreasonable to assume that they ever will. Of course that they haven't influenced the climate it any detectable or demonstrable way. In fact, they haven't even influenced the annual production of carbon dioxide. It continues to grow at the usual exponential rate (with \(e\)-folding close to 57 years). In fact, the countries that avoided silly things like the Kyoto protocol (especially the U.S.) have seen a smaller growth and sometimes decrease of the carbon dioxide emissions.

The climate doesn't care about any of these things, of course.

Imagine that about 200 countries send their delegations to a random place of the globe – which is something like 10,000 kilometers from their hometown in average. They negotiate, they don't reach any results, even if they reached any results, they only harm the economy and achieve nothing else. All of it is a lose-lose situation.

I hope that there is no serious threat of a Kyoto-like or worse treaty that could emerge in Warsaw.



At most, there should be vacuous promises, like in this 2008 Polish parody of Ivan Mládek "Joe from the Bog" 1978 hit of my kindergarten years. The parody is called "Donald Marzy" ("Donald Is Dreaming") and Prime Minister Donald Tusk promises many things to the Poles in the song, not only about the Polish prosperity but also that you will be able to go to the Cosmos by foot. (Polish, English, and [my] Czech lyrics here.)

Australia didn't participate in the Kyoto protocol but in recent years, it became a fortress occupied by the climate alarmists. The recent elections have fortunately undone this anomaly and Australia has returned to its usual common-sense attitudes to the carbon dioxide questions. Politicians generally echo Prime Minister Tony Abbott's suggestion that the climate alarmists are watermelons (green on the surface, red inside). The precise wording that Abbott uses is that "the carbon tax was socialism masquerading as environmentalism". The same description holds not only for a national carbon tax but for a treaty that could emerge in Warsaw and Australia won't join any similar nonsense, we were assured.

Canada is more or less denying the usefulness of similar theaters and this formerly "ultimate" politically correct country is being attacked by some green whackos' criticism.

Czechs and Slovaks have had a pretty bad experience with the Warsaw Pact in August 1968 so let's hope that there won't be another Warsaw Pact.

In previous years, I was sort of thinking about the annual gathering of the climate alarmists for weeks or months in advance. I am still highly interested in politics of the climate hysteria but I admit it was just today when I realized that the Bali-like conference of 2013 is taking place in Warsaw. It seems clear to me that it's not just about me; the importance of these particular crackpots has decreased in recent years.

But their willingness to lie about everything related to the climate hasn't decreased, quite on the contrary. Alexander Ač is just one writer among hundreds who say things like "Typhoon Haiyan was the strongest cyclone that ever visited the Earth" and all this stuff. In reality, if you look at a simple table, you will see that Haiyan was just 21st-35th strongest cyclone even if you look at those in the Western North Pacific Ocean only. The data in the table start in the 1950s so you may say that a cyclone like Haiyan or stronger visits that ocean every other year!

The hysterical claims about the strongest cyclone ever were apparently created when some excessively active imbeciles in the media confused miles per hour with kilometers per hour.

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snail feedback (21) :


reader lucretius said...

They made a curious choice of the day for the conference as some people might have noticed. It was even noticed in New York:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/polish-independence-day-march-warsaw-marred-riots-article-1.1513376

I guess you don't see this sort of thing much in the Czechia.

Oh, by the way, the "Palace of Culture" also known as "The cakemakers nightmare", that you can see in the center of the photo, was Stalin's "personal gift to the Polish people" and the inscription is still on it, but there is a long tradition of covering it up with something. In the communist era the Mathematics Department of The University of Warsaw occupied a couple of floors, there were all kind of other cultural and sports activities there. I trained fencing and judo in my communist childhood there.

After the end of communism there was a big debate about what to do with it. Some people wanted to blow it up, but it seemed like a lot of trouble. Others argued that it has a historical value and is a prime example of certain type of architecture (the most famous example is the horrific Moscow State University
http://rusbase.com/media/upload_tmp/msu.jpg



In the end, it was decided to surround it with skyscrapers that would deprive it of its "dominant" impression. I am not sure if they succeeded, but as time passes it arouses less passions (although still quite a lot).


As for the "climate conference", it was totally dominated by the other events (as expected) so that hardly anybody here seems to be aware of it.


reader Uncle Al said...

The average wine bottle, Night Train balancing champagne, masses 600 g of glass. 2.8 billion cases is 33.6 billion bottles or 20 million tonnes/year of glass. Each bottle Officially requires about 480 Whr to arise from sand, soda, and limestone and end up in your hand, or 16 trillion Whr/year. Our whole planet's annual wine bottle output consumes the energy of a 1.84 gigawatt electrical plant. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power has 7.2 GW generating capacity, almost 4 times that - for Los Angeles. Recycle bottles to Save the Earth.



Better yet, ban all alcoholic beverages (use French nuclear generating plants).


reader Jeffrey said...

Lubos, I think the true reason that the UN climate conferences will never stop of their own accord is because to the kleptocratic dysfuncracies that make up most of the General Assembly, they are a lottery that's cheap to enter but could produce a big payoff, especially compared to their tiny economies which are engendered by terrible domestic policies. If we could get those American saps to give us just $100 million once, you can see them daydreaming, how many palaces and Rollses would that buy us ...


reader papertiger0 said...

You know. I keep waiting for the punch line.


Let me ah. Because water in a bag does work? Because goat bladders are hard to come by?


Gimmee a minute. I'll get another one.


reader Brian G Valentine said...

Anybody with the slightest understanding of what Communism really is has no tolerance for it at all and I am surprised that the Polish permit this in Warsaw because they know what Communism is - only too well.


reader Brian G Valentine said...

Evidently he didn't use the same ploy in sympathy for Germans and others who froze to death last winter because they could not afford their utility bills.


reader Tom said...

They permit it for the most capitalistic reason - it is profitable. All those delegates on expense account do wonders for the local economy.


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reader Barbara said...

We really should wait until the final numbers come out regarding the strength of the typhoon, the 895 hPa entered into Wiki are preliminary as far as I can tell, the final number could be lower (NOAA estimates are)

But even if it was the strongest storm in the (short) era of storm measurement, it's only a single data point which can tell us nothing by itself.


reader Luboš Motl said...

Dear Barbara, could you please explain more understandably why you think that the pressure reading is "preliminary" and what should update the pressure?


The pressure was measured immediately when the cyclone was strong, wasn't it? It was measured, not calculated, and if a calculation had to be done to get a figure, it takes split seconds or seconds to complete it, not weeks, am I wrong?


A vast adjustment to the minimal central pressure will surely look untrustworthy to me.


reader Barbara said...

I don't disagree, the measurement shouldn't really take that long.

But the web citation you show is from NOAA, while the rest of the numbers from the Wikipedia list are from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), and that source doesn't have numbers for November yet:
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html.

So for comparability, I suggest we wait until the JMA has published the data, especially when there are other lists with slightly conflicting data, like http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/31W-list.txt. (Low point in this list is ~884hPa).

I just like to have my data from the same source for comparison, that's all.


reader Mike H said...

I guess a gathering of the collectively stupid, at least as how that bastion of CC knowledge George Clooney defines them, gathered in Poland to rally agains the U.N. (sarc off),

http://www.cfact.org/2013/11/12/cfact-rallies-50000-poles-against-climate-treaty/

Much like the Czechs, the Poles can still recall what it is like to live under the cloak of repression. We in N.A., have always lived within the aura of freedom. Repression in Western Europe is a long distant memory or thought of a 2 blips in the last 100 years. Repression is something to a significant degree we've read about, (at least some of us), and more than likely don't have a true understanding of it. Does one need to experience repression in order for it to permeate the soul? I hope note. Wouldn't it be nice if those who most recently escaped repression were the ones to lead us away from it. Wouldn't it be nice if those who most recently escaped repression were the ones to lead us away from it.

I'm curious how much coverage the 50,000 anti UN rally will receive in North American main stream media. Probably none.


reader Brian G Valentine said...

Is there anyone on the face of the Earth with self-esteem so low that they are influenced by anything George Clooney (Barbra Streisand, Robert Redford etc etc) has to say or thinks?


reader Mike H said...

Sadly, yes.


reader lucretius said...

So far the COP conference is attracting no attention at all in the mainstream Polish media, which are overwhelmingly preoccupied with the "local warming" caused by yesterday's "Independence March" and the theatrical attempt at "storming" the Russian Embassy in Warsaw, which achieved the remarkable feat of putting Russia in the position of a "victim", which the Russian authorities are making a full use of.
The Polish Embassy in Moscow was given (unasked for) additional security protection.


As for the other warming, the only thing I managed to find in the Polish papers is a report on the criticism of the Polish organisers and Poland's view of climate in Germany. Apparently Poland is Europe's worst "climate criminal" and the Polish government's aim (according to the German press) is that the conference should achieve nothing substantial. Let's hope that at least in this respect they are right.
Amazingly, the German papers seem to have no doubt that the typhoon Haiyan was "caused" by "global warming". In retrospect, it seems strange that they forgot to blame the Fukushima tsunami on the same cause - seems like a lack of imagination to me.
This only goes to prove that the state of the economy of a country has completely no relation to the intellectual condition of its elite (at least as represented by its media), for if it were otherwise, Germany would be even more broke than Greece.


reader Eugene S said...

In retrospect, it seems strange that they forgot to blame the Fukushima
tsunami on the same cause - seems like a lack of imagination to me
How silly you are. A nuclear power plant in Japan exploded, killing 20,000 people. It was a terrible tragedy. Global warming played no part in it. Are you privateering? Haven't seen you at the Ten Minutes of Hate lately. I've reported you to the authorities. We can't have people like you spread misinformation.


reader Brian G Valentine said...

I guess you're being sacastic but not overly funny.


reader Eugene S said...

Hi, Brian. You guessed right, it was sarcasm. As for not being funny, sorry about that and you can get your money back at the ticket counter :)


But that's truly the takeaway message that many Germans got from their media's relentless hammering of die Reaktorkatastrophe von Fukushima (a quarter million ghits for this phrase).


The tsunami (pun intended) of emotion was so sudden and strong, chancellor Merkel felt she had no choice but to immediately reverse course on her nuclear-power policies by announcing expedited closure of all Germany's nuclear power plants, if she did not want to be swept away herself. One may criticize her for not taking a more principled stand, but she has proven a very astute observer of the popular mood and she probably was right that she stood no chance against the media-fueled outpouring of irrationality.



The outcome of the government-mandated transition is that indeed, several nuclear power plants have been shut down. Their output has been partly taken about by heavily subsidized wind and solar, horrendously expensive to ratepayers and energy-dependent businesses. (A number of industries have already announced plans to close down production in Germany and move their plants abroad to where energy is much cheaper, e.g., the U.S.) At the same time, because output from wind and solar are so unreliable, more coal-fired power plants have come online, and as a result German CO2 output is on the rise again for the past two years in a row.


Having a rational conversation about nuclear power is impossible in Germany.


reader Brian G Valentine said...

People have not figured out yet that Communism will not make Solar Power viable, any more than it made Lysenkoism viable.



Unfortunately a lot of people perish at the expense of an "educated elite" learning something ...


Merkel ostensibly holds a PhD of physical chemistry, which ought to be taken away for demonstrating unfathomable, ineffable, unconscionable stupidity - which none of her spineless Cabinet are capable of expressing or more likely comprehending


reader lucretius said...

I did not see Eugene's reply until I got up this morning, but although I am not sure it is the kind of thing that should make one lough, I immediately remembered that the only victims of the nuclear accident at Fukushima (unlike the tsunami that caused it) were some local farmers who committed suicide after the authorities banned the sales of the produce leaving them without any means of earning a living:

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/06/07/national/tepco-admits-culpability-in-fukushima-farmers-suicide/#.UoMr4ZGsCnw

For that matter, most people still don't realise that the once widely predicted terrible consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident also remain a myth:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/nuclear-scaremongers-inflate-risks/story-e6frg6so-1226032889919


reader Andrzej said...

People with some serious problems are posting here. Looks to me that "flat earth" society is well represented in this discussion