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BBC friendly towards gluinos at LHC

After Two Years' Vacation, the Large Hadron Collider will be restarted next month. At least since the discovery of the Higgs boson, most of the readers of mainstream media were overwhelmed by tirades against modern particle physics – especially supersymmetry and similar things. The writers of such stories have often emulated assorted Shwolins and Shmoits in effect, if not in intent.

Gluino vampire alchemist. The doll only costs $690, below several billions needed for a chance to see the much smaller gluino at the LHC.

Well, ATLAS' new (deputy) spokeswoman Beate Heinemann of UC Berkeley (Gianotti is superseding Heuer as CERN's director general) made a difference today and several stories that she inspired at visible places have conveyed the excitement in the particle physics community and the nonzero chance that a bigger discovery than the Higgs boson may be made in 2015 – and perhaps announced at the SUSY-related conferences in August and September.

The three main stories involving her and gluino that I am talking about are

BBC: Collider hopes for a 'super' restart

NBC: After the Higgs, LHC Rounds Up the Unusual Suspects in Particle Physics

Wall Street Hedge: What’s next for Large Hadron Collider? May be a supersymmetric particle

Other sources via Google News
The titles look more upbeat than the stuff that dominated in recent years, don't they? ;-)

Amos, Boyle, and Baits communicate some of the emotions as well as the detailed expectations about "what the LHC may tell us soon". The official authority of one of the ATLAS' spokespersons, combined with his or her politically correct sex and gender, was enough to amplify the message.

So of course that supersymmetry remains the most important "class of phenomena" that may occur – but aren't quite obliged to occur – at the LHC during the looming run. Physicists are waiting for it and will be carefully looking for its signs.

Heinemann says that we may be at the threshold – and the discovery of the first superpartner would be analogously important as the discovery of antimatter a century ago. I think that this comparison is more or less fair although I can think of reasons to think that either antimatter is more important; or supermatter is more revolutionary.

Equally interestingly, she offered one detailed piece of quasi-information. It's the gluino, the fermionic superpartner of the gauge boson called gluon (which communicates the strong force between the colored quark) that could be the first supersymmetric partner particle that is going to be discovered at the LHC.

The question which particle should be the first one – if we don't know the exact model or "version" of supersymmetry incorporated in Nature – is rather complicated and lots of experience may be needed for a qualified opinion. And lots of experience may also be useless because no one really knows. ;-)

But to say the least, I do think that Heinemann correctly reproduces the expectation of top particle phenomenologists. I think that if you asked 20 most cited beyond-the-Standard-Model phenomenologists what is their idea about the most likely first particle that will be observed in the superworld, the largest fraction of them if not the majority would answer "gluino".

If the masses etc. were equal, gluino is the easiest particle to be produced, largely because the very high energy proton-proton collisions are microscopically "mostly" gluon-gluon collisions and the gluino is the easiest particle to be obtained from the boson. This is a reason why the gluino could be the first one to be created.

However, the very same argument has a negative side. Because the gluino should be so easy to produce and it hasn't been produced yet, the lower limit on the gluino mass is also higher (more constraining) than the lower limit on other superpartner masses. Except for some loopholes that may exist in some models, the gluino should be heavier than about \(0.9\)-\(1.4\TeV\) (depending especially on the LSP mass) according to results from the previous LHC run. But up to \(1.6\TeV\) or perhaps \(2\TeV\) as the gluino mass, the models still look natural.

Which of the arguments for/against gluino is stronger? They would be about equally strong if the energy were unchanged. But I think that the higher center-of-mass energy, \(13\TeV\) to start with, is making the dominance of the gluon-gluon collision even more intense and the higher energy brings us into a new realm. These two observations strengthen the first positive argument and weaken the second negative argument. So there are reasons to think that the gluino could be the first superpartner to be observed.

ATLAS' new spokeswoman

Of course, supersymmetry doesn't have to apply to low-energy physics at all. The naturalness problems may be either just self-inflicted injuries or Nature may solve the problem very differently than many people were thinking.

But even if the conventional ideas about naturalness are mostly right, gluino may still be much heavier. I admit that I am quite fond of the growing literature of papers with new models involving Dirac gluinos – effectively gluinos resulting from a theory that allows extended, \(\NNN=2\) supersymmetry for the gauge bosons. These models may be natural even if the gluino mass is something like \(5\TeV\).

One should also appreciate that a light gluino is somewhat less needed for naturalness – for the supersymmetric explanation why the Higgs boson is so light – than other particles. It's especially the stop and the higgsino that should be very light if this explanation of the hierarchy problem is right. But the stop and the higgsino have various ways to hide. The gluino is produced more easily and can't hide too well.

We will see – or we will see nothing. And we will see which part of the previous sentence is more relevant – and maybe we won't see even that. We will see. And so on. ;-)

Stay tuned.

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reader Luboš Motl said...

Dear Peter, which missing matter do you mean? ;-)

reader Mikael said...

Well I would agree. I would just point out that the key word in your statement is "civillized country" and that the line between civilized and none-civilized may become fuzzy. When we think about the Euro zone, even the word country is not applicable which is part of the problem.

reader Peter F. said...

yes! :-)
(Might try to blame the mistake on too much bubbly this time. :>)

reader wiz said...

Beate Heinemann is deputy spokesman, Dave Charlton is the ATLAS spokesman

reader Luboš Motl said...

Thanks for the clarification - if my wording is erroneous, it's copied from BBC and NBC.

reader Luboš Motl said...

Then yes, it's possible! The gluino is most likely to be created as the first superpartner but the gluino can't be dark matter because it's not quite dark.

But gluino quickly decays to other particles, including the LSP, the lightest superpartner, which is what dark matter is composed of if it is composed of superpartners at all.

reader JollyJoker said...

I hope Philip Gibbs restarts his blog as well. That was the best place to follow the last LHC run, imo.

Tired of seeing the "Did a skydiver" etc story when I open all my physics blogs bookmarks. :(

reader Dilaton said...

Exactly, Phil Gibbs has well deserved the title of Mr. Higgs ;-)

So he should now be thinking about hunting for the title of Mr. Gluino ...!

It still makes me chuckle when thinking about how annoyed some experimenters have been when Phil nicely combined ATLAS and CMS plotts, while they were not allowed to combine the data for "political", strategical, or other rather stupid sourballish party pooping reasons ;-P


reader kashyap vasavada said...

Interesting blog. Is there a reference to understand little better " It's especially the stop and the higgsino that should be very light if this explanation of the hierarchy problem is right. "

reader Luboš Motl said...

Dear Kashyap, some references may contain lots of detailed calculations but the basic idea is obvious.

The Higgs boson gets loops corrections to its mass that cancel for unbroken supersymmetry - bosons and fermions (their superpartners) cancel.

This cancellation is inaccurate when SUSY is broken - when the boson and its fermionic superpartners differ in masses. But when it comes to the Higgs mass, only the mismatches of the particles that actually run in the loops of important enough contributions matter.

The loop diagrams with the two Higgs boson external legs either change the Higgs to a Higgsino, while emitting some fermionic superpartner, or they contain a loop of some slepton or squark, and the stop squark is the only sfermion whose loop gives a large enough contribution because the top is heavy and therefore the top Yukawa coupling is close to one.

The much heavier masses of other superpartners also mean mismatches for supersymmetry, but these mismatches don't affect the Higgs boson mass (and its low value) much because all these contributions are low, due to small couplings of the Higgs with these other particles.

It's the higgsino and stop that matter most, and the gluino that is after them because more complicated loop diagrams with extra gluinos could still make things bad because the strong QCD coupling is high.

reader John Harley said...

Brian Williams: In 2014 before the LHC shut down, I observed a super partner.

reader mar o said...

The trade surplus of Germany in the last 10-15 years is influenced by another fact which you don't mention: inflation-adjusted wages in Germany have been stagnating or even dropping in this time frame.

This hugely increased the trade surplus because two thirds of German exports go to European countries and there, the wages did increase with the growing economy.

So no, Germany is not a role model for other European countries for two reasons:

(a) Although the trade surplus leads to a well-growing GDP, the average worker does not participate.

(b) If all European states go the German way, the trade surplus of Germany will decrease significantly and with it the GDP. The German system only works because the others don't go the German way.

Also, it isn't sustainable. If the other European countries have trade deficiencies, where do they get the money from to buy German goods? In the long run, they have to borrow it from countries with a trade surplus so the cat bites its tail: giving other countries money in order to buy your products may make sense in a trade war but not as a sustainable business model.

reader Werdna said...

It's not so much the size of the inflation or deflation rate that matters. In an economy where the real supply of goods is rapidly increasing, prices should generally drop similarly fast.

One really needs to distinguish between supply driven inflation and deflation, which are good or necessary, and demand driven inflation and deflation, which occur as a result of the monetary policy or policy regime, and are neither good nor necessary.

To be sure, the entrepreneurial process of price discovery faces a harder burden when prices must change faster. But this same process constrains the ability of the real supply of goods to grow in the first place.

Arguably the ideal conditions would involve de facto long run deflationary NGDP targeting-prices also need to be allowed to rise in the event of adverse shocks to the real supply of goods. And any attempt to "take advantage" of this deflation by reducing one's real present consumption and investment, would be self thwarting, because it would cause inflation.

This could be accomplished by deregulating banking (as I've been saying) and setting up the monetary base to be determined by a computer program, either with a fixed amount, or a growth rate that is determined input data designed to achieve a growth rate of nominal spending somewhat lower than the real economic growth rate.

reader kashyap vasavada said...

Thanks Lubos. Sounds good enough argument to me!

reader Werdna said...

Of course, apart from suggesting real supply shifts rather than nominal demand shifts, should be the determinant of price changes in general, with nominal demand shifts only influencing, ideally, relative prices, and never all in the same direction at once, I have not made it clear in the above why the optimal long run rate of inflation should be negative (and, at least for a fixed population, equal to the economic growth rate itself, ie a constant nominal GDP) that requires a more thorough exposition.

I would point to one fairly "mainstream" argument that the optimal inflation rate in the long run is negative: Friedman's "Optimum Quantity of Money" argument, that the opportunity cost of holding should be equal to the marginal cost of creating fiat money: that is, "the" nominal interest rate should be zero, or rather the rate of inflation should be the additive inverse of "the" real interest rate. I point out this argument, not because I think it's the best argument, but because it's a monetarist argument for long run deflation.

See also George Selgin's book advocating the "Productivity Norm" Less than Zero, which has a lot more arguments.

reader Luboš Motl said...

Dear mar,

1) it is an exaggeration to say that the real wages stagnated or dropped in Germany in 10-15 years, there was a growth

2) this growth was limited by the biggest depression since the Great Depression that happens to land in the middle of the period you picked

3) the growth of wages wasn't decided by the ECB or banks or the German governments, it was predominantly decided by private employers

4) the limited income growth was decided very wisely, unlike in other countries, because from the overall perspective, the reason why the real wages should have grown in this period was very small

5) much of the money from trade surpluses etc. is still earned by "rather ordinary Germans" and they chose to save as well which was sensible given the threats that manifested themselves

6) there is absolutely nothing unsustainable about these matters. It's always possible to increase the real wages and spend the savings. What's not easy is to return to the black (surplus, profit) numbers if one is in red numbers.

reader Michael said...

""The purpose of the job of a journalist is to inform (and perhaps, partly entertain) the readers, viewers etc. and the purpose of the job of politicians is to protect the interests and values of those who elected them and whom they represent and to manage a country or province or something.

Because there is competition for people who want to become journalists or politicians and the Jews are overrepresented among journalists and politicians, that's enough to see that they're doing a *better* job in these occupations than the goyim.""""

I find this a strange statement from you. Journalists twist and turn the truth to serve special interest groups all the time. Look at what you thought about western media regarding Ukraine. That hired journalists are the best ones to find the truth and inform people about it? What? It is so easy to get frustrated watching the news, with -for example - left wing truth-distorting propaganda, that I know you hate. And that the politicians that ""win" are the ones best suited to serve the people? Politics is a game of power and manipulation, fundamentally built on dishonesty and violence. People who are attracted to politics are on average people who are obsessed with wanting to control and manipulate others. Exactly the kind of people you don't want in power if you think about it. I don't get this part of your comment at all, but perhaps I read too much into it.

reader Luboš Motl said...

Sorry, Shannon, the idea that Jews are so represented in the media (and you would probably say it for other occupations as well) because "once there is one Jew, he hires other Jews" shows that your anti-Semitic paranoia has made you psychiatrically ill.

reader Luboš Motl said...

Don't be silly, Shannon, this has nothing to do with "people's help to each other". It's about talents.

Despite centuries of sophisticated and intensive education system in France where everyone helps each other as much as he can, no Frenchman has ever done as much e.g. for theoretical physics (I mean discovering the important thing, regardless of whether they lead to jobs or prizes) as Einstein or Feynman or Weinberg or Gell-Mann or Witten or... there are quite certainly dozens of Jews that would be above the first Frenchman.

You are detached from reality - as detached from reality as the feminists or any other "everyone is equal" social justice warrior - if you explain these things by some conspiracy between Jews who unfairly help each other. Your viewpoint only helps to show how Nazism, communism, and feminism, among similar things, are all derived from the same seed, the same hysterical delusion.

reader Shannon said...

You might be an atheist but you certainly worship the jews ;-). I hope they'll thank you for this.

reader davideisenstadt said...

I can understand islamic peoples' fears...a quarter million or so have been killed in syria alone recently...and in the iraq /ran war, a million or so died, so clearly islamic people have reason to be fearful...the question is who they should fear.
danish people? the swedes? the french?
Islamic immigrants are responsible for roughly 100% of sexual assaults in copenhagen, and apparently these guys aren't fearful enough to stop gang raping swedish women.
really, you amaze me sometimes Qsa..More obtuse than the warden in "The Shawshank Redemption" you are.

reader davideisenstadt said...

so you import your whores from elsewhere as well.
why dontcha eff your own hairy women. oh yes, I think we know why.

reader davideisenstadt said...

If you would stop writng, no one would know what a pompous fool you are shannon.

reader davideisenstadt said...

geez lubos...this post brought the jew haters out eh?

reader Swine flu said...

"I wish there was such a thing as safe haven."

There is a reason why hate crimes are considered to be a special category of crimes. There are no safe havens from ordinary crimes, but healthy societies make an extra effort to combat hate crimes and the attitudes that allow hate crimes.

I don't have a ready list of incidents to recite as I don't follow these matters closely, but as just one example, I have run on a couple of occasions into reports of some schools in Denmark telling prospective Jewish students that it wouldn't be safe for them to go to that school. That's an example of a society giving up rather than an example of strict laws and peaceful atmosphere that you consider the hallmarks of Europe.

reader Uncle Al said...

European history: Jews are kicked out of somewhere else and arrive in your country. Two generations later, you have a Renaissance - the economy works, STEM and culture are making big strides, you are spitting back at your aggressive neighbors. Goddamned Jews are kicked out, going somewhere else. Bad luck returns your country to mud.

Putin the Hammer embraced an entire culture of Soviet Jewish black marketeers (if they would embrace him). Billionaires sprouted like grass after a spring rain. He seems to have tired of their influence. Russia is falling off its peak.

Breed for intelligence not smartlessness. Failing that, import.

reader Shannon said...

Hi David, an interesting talk for you. You can start at 5:30 to skip the intro. Atzmon is a great jazzman too. Shalom ;-)

reader Swine flu said...

David, I am just curious. How old are you?

reader TomVonk said...

You are quite right Lubos to strongly distinguish politics and anti-semitism.
And yes it is true that many people in our lands didn't fundamentally object to the Protektorat (if only because we were indeed "protected" - out of 6 years of war, we have really experienced only 1 month and even that was WWII "light").
However simultaneously these same people would not feel anti-semite for a cent and there have not been any "popular" anti semitic actions even if they would have probably been encouraged by the powers that be.
I have a good jewish friend in Paris and in a discussion I told him once that I could not be anti semite even if I wanted to because I simply couldn't tell that HE was a jew.
Hating something that one cannot even recognize seems to me rather a strong signal of a mental disease.
So while about anybody could be fascist, marxist, liberal or royalist for different and quite rationnal reasons, it takes a serious mental disorder to be anti semite.
Anecdotically my friend told me yesterday that he was now seriously contemplating leaving France because the muslim part of the French population was becoming a real danger.
As he's quite bright and creative, I find that it is a very bad result to swap 1 jew for 5 illiterate future Kouachis.

reader davideisenstadt said...

old enough to be a great grandfather in an islamic country...elsewhere , past middle age, if one assumes the life expectancy of a male in the united
As for my comments regarding islamic people and their tastes for alcohol and other countries whores... it goes to the hypocrisy and misogyny so endemic in the arab world.

reader Tony said...

Heh, that was very entertaining, in the most non-PC way

reader Rehbock said...

They can't win back the world's good opinion. These fanatics commit crimes to force their beliefs upon us.

reader mesocyclone said...

I compare Mohammed and Jesus because their follows care very much how their leaders lived and thought. This influences their behavior today - a lot.

I mentioned the Islamic uprisings outside the Arab world. You are ignoring:

-Boko Haram in Nigeria
-Islamists who control most of Somalia
-Non-Arab Islamists in Libya (not all Libyans are Arabs)
-The Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan
-Taliban based terrorist groups that attack India. The Mumbai attacks were done by them, not Arabs
-The Islamist uprising in the Phillipines
-Islamist terrorists operating from Indonesia and Malaysia.
-Chechen Islamist terrorists like the Boston Marathon bombers.

NATO did not support the Libyan uprising. Some NATO members did. I think it was a mistake, but it is also irrelevant to this much larger trend.

The Muslim Brotherhood is the root of Al Qaeda, whose current leader started in Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. They were removed in a very popular coup because the Egyptian people discovered how loathesome they were.

Turkey indeed has an Islamic regime and it also is non-Arab. It is only nominally a US ally, because of its former explicitely secular regime. If the Islamists remain in power, the alliance will go away.

While it is clear that you do not know what I am talking about, which is appropriate because you also don't know what you are talking about. You have shown zero evidence that the Islamist uprisings are part of the international game that you mentioned.

reader Cogniscentum said...

Since they have high IQs, and this puts them at such a disadvantage economically, it only makes sense that they would have to create other schemes to allow them to succeed in spite of this burdensom handicap.

reader Cogniscentum said...

" I find that it is a very bad result to swap 1 jew for 5 illiterate future Kouachis."

It will decrease income inequality by making everybody poorer. That makes it a good result.

reader QsaTheory said...

French people are plenty intelligent and they exist in large numbers, their history shows that. They don't have to depend or on anybody or be degraded by anybody.

reader QsaTheory said...

Lubos, I just clarified the political stands of the parties involved adding to the analysis you gave.

I do not advocate any war, because any war between Israel and Iran means my country to be effected severely, just like your country will be effected by a Russia/Europe war. Iran sends mixed messages, to US it says I will raze oil countries in case of attack, to us don't worry everything will be fine.

I don't want war, nobody does. I have been in three of them and they are not pleasant. First during Iran/Iraq war. The second one, Iraqi invasion, everyday we had to run to the basement with my two months first born with untold miseries. The third 2003, the Iraqi's fired a sea to land missile about three Km away from us, which shook our concrete house and in seconds we could smell the gun powder, most of the other missiles were intercepted.

I was saying about Israel that the situation is fluid.

reader Shannon said...

When is having a high IQ a disadvantage economically, Cogniscentum?

reader Swine flu said...

Yes, the issue of the larger society tolerating attacks on members of a minority is a moral one that has nothing to do with how successful that minority may or may not be.

reader Shannon said...

When do we "tolerate" attacks in France,Swine Flu ?

reader Shannon said...

A friend of mine went to London as an au-pair in a jewish family. Every Friday evenings she was asked to stay in her room or she could go out. She was never invited at the diner table any other days either. She wasn't impressed. Same for another au-pair in the same street.

reader Shannon said...

France is not the US, Cogniscentum ;-)

reader Swine flu said...

It was a general remark that wasn't directed specifically at France - I was actually thinking of Denmark at the time of writing it. But it is a good question, are things all that different elsewhere, including in France.

Once an attack takes place, the attackers certainly get pursed and either shot or caught and persecuted anywhere in Europe, so that's clearly not the issue. Whether the attitudes and behaviors that eventually lead to attacks are not dealt with vigorously enough is the real question. It takes tolerating a certain social climate for the attacks to be getting increasingly common and increasingly violent, as they seem to be.

reader Swine flu said...

make that prosecuted ... sigh

reader Swine flu said...

No, it is not. The Muslims are more successful economically and less discriminated against in the US and are less radicalized as a result.

reader QsaTheory said...

Everybody fears war, especially the ones that constantly are engaged in.

These people who went to Sweden .. they thought they got to the safe haven promised land. But I guess you can never escape completely from those who squirt their venom.

Bring official statistics, or just stop.
The Arab world has some of the lowest crime statistics in the world.

reader Shannon said...

They still destroyed two towers and airplanes totalling 3000 people Swine Flu. They haven't reached that number in Europe yet.

reader Swine flu said...

But then, poor immigrant groups generally tend to exhibit higher crime rates, so I am not sure what to make of those numbers.

reader Shannon said...

We have to stay zen ;-)

reader Swine flu said...

Were they from the US? I remember something about a Hamburg mosque, but the whole thing happened 14 years ago, and I never really followed all the details even at the time.

But yes, you are right, prosperity does not eliminate radicalism - it does mitigate it, however.

reader QsaTheory said...

I was attacked in London by three kids while I was doing my Masters. In the US a punk approached my mother while we were on a visit and started talking some rubbish, I had to control myself for the safety of my mother.

I said generally, of course UK is a bad case relatively. But I also said I am on a lookout for a Utopia.

reader Swine flu said...

I don't disagree with your general premise that there will always be crime and that will always be some amount of racism and bigotry. The questions to ask are whether they remains within certain bounds and whether things are getting worse and possibly spinning out of control. Also important is the issue of the climate, which is more subtle than the issue of what the law says.

reader QsaTheory said...

Yes, that is to be expected. In my country thirty years ago hearing about a murder was something to talk about in social gatherings. Now, it is as normal, nothing strange.
But david said 100% sex crime which looks unbelievable.

reader Swine flu said...

I actually also recall seeing claims of high sex crime rates by immigrants in Sweden, but I don't remember how reputable the source was. Just typing 'immigrant sex crimes sweden' into google, the following are among the things that come up.

The probably more measured source - - simply states that "immigrants were ... five times more likely to be investigated for sex crimes."

The other two sources are more shrill and with a likely islamophobic bent. They do provide additional links one can further investigate for credibility:

reader QsaTheory said...

I have visited Europe many times and I speak from experience. Despite all the talk about Muslims taking over and all that, in fact other than some southern France cities where you could see them as "visible" The rest of Europe you hardly see them especially outside major cities.
I was in the Netherlands last month and we went to a small city one hour by train from Amsterdam (It has a large medical school and a hospital), people treated us like we came from the moon, they kept asking what are you doing here, we don't see the like of you here.

Swine flu check the statistics for yourself, not more than 2% , something like Chinese in San Francisco. You know, big cities has lots of support jobs that these people do economically. In Frankfurt, a lot of Turkish people mostly driving Taxi and since they are white sometimes it is hard to distinguish them.

But outside these cities, where big junk of the population live foreigners are aliens and understood to be tourists. So generally the Europeans don't seem to care. An Iraqi Taxi driver in Sweden told us if somebody says anything bad to him he will call the police and they will be there in no time.

reader QsaTheory said...

You will be hanged for rape. Kuwaiti man was convicted of rape and attempted murder of a Philippine girl and sentenced to death. he has just one more appeal.

reader Shannon said...

Why don't they send him to Sweden?... heh only joking... :-D
I know. It's not funny.

reader QsaTheory said...

Dear Lubos, You can see many reports of racial based hate crimes on the net. In an earlier post I said I was attacked in London for no reason. Despite that I don't hold Europeans or Christians responsible for the action of the few deranged ones. So it is unreasonable to do the same with Muslims.

That is because outside these politically or racially motivated the evidence of cooperation and friendship is literally millions of times greater. Just the statistics about trade, expats in both regions , cultural exchange like number of students and so on.

reader Cogniscentum said...

I assume it must be to force Jews to such nefarious means to gain advantages.

reader dave1964b said...

"They don't have to depend on anybody"

Except when they get their butts kicked in wars.

reader dave1964b said...

"it's rather frequent to see religious people who think that their religion is the only valid one, and that others will burn in hell." That is fine with me as long as they don't try to enforce their viewpoint here on earth. That is the problem with the radical Islamists, they want us to go to hell in the here and now.

reader dave1964b said...

"Muslim Brotherhood has nothing to do with AlQaeda whatsoever"

I am sorry but that is false. Al Qaeda came out of the Muslim brotherhood. The Muslim brotherhood may not be actively engaging in terrorism but it was the foundation for many of these groups coming up today.

reader QsaTheory said...

While my comment's context was clear, your statement is still shaky. It was not in the interest of the US to appear a super power like old Germany or pan Eurasia super socialist state. That much sense of geopolitics should be easy to understand ,right?

reader QsaTheory said...

Nonesense dave. I think radical Islamist were created as a target practice for drones to really make them efficient. You can't get more real simulation than that , can you?

reader QsaTheory said...

this is the wiki of alqaeda, show me where it says that it came out of MB organization.

reader QsaTheory said...

david, the whore population representation follows the population breakup.
As for hairy, I don't know which cave you been living in. These days laser removal hair is very cheap, works better for darker skinned people. Moreover, vagina tightening ,nose jobs and many other plastic surgeries are available.

Unfortunately, there is nothing that can be done for a slow brain.

reader QsaTheory said...

All people are prone to be hypocrites when they want something. Worse they can be liars as in "misogyny so endemic in the arab world"

reader Gene Day said...

They were just being snotty English, not Jewish.

reader Zephir said...

Ten hours at Paris as a Jew

reader Gene Day said...

Come now, Shannon. We get along very well with our Muslims and with our Jews.
The 9/11 murderers were not American. You know that.
There is very little discrimination against either Jew or Muslim here. I have known tons of Muslims and have never experienced a single one that was anything but a solid citizen.
Of course Jews have contributed immensely to the richness of our lives for which I am deeply grateful.

reader QsaTheory said...

Meso, you skipped 2000 years of chaotic history of Christianity and Europe to say that after all this time ,NOW your folks have got it and have become angel like, get real man.

Now to your cataclysmic analysis of the "uprising"

Boko Haram in Nigeria:

5000 renegades trying to start a revolution on behalf of 50-60 million, good luck to them.

Islamists who control most of Somalia:

Penniless Somalia which has been in a civil war for the past 30 years is going to start an earth shaking Islamic uprising. May you next example is a lot better.

Non-Arab Islamists in Libya (not all Libyans are Arabs):


The Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan:

This one revolution that has no resolution. A left over mess from soviet invasion and subsequent US and company entanglement you call a revolution/uprising.

Pakistan based terrorist groups that attack India. The Mumbai attacks were done by them, not Arabs:

how on earth such events constitute uprising. These are political problems over Kashmir which has been going on for 60 years.

The Islamist uprising in the Philippines:

How is this local insurgency which asks for their rights and have negotiated with Manila government and have reach peace is an Islamic uprising.

-Islamist terrorists operating from Indonesia and Malaysia.
-Chechen Islamist terrorists like the Boston Marathon bombers:

Are you sure you understand what the word uprising means or have you defined it as to suit you need.

"the Egyptian people discovered how loathesome they were."

Meso, aren't the Egyptian Muslims and by your logic that Islam teaches evil, why didn't they accept evil when they had the chance. What a mammoth of a contradiction.


My dear meso, international politics don't work according to your philosophy but the needs of the countries interest, including yours. And the US has been an ally of KSA which is the devil in your book in the last ,oh, god knows how many years.

It is clear that The US and its gulf(and Turkey) ally have helped the groups that fight Assad. One of them is isis, I am sure they new that, wouldn't you expect. The US has a treaty with Iraq. How is it that isis over run the area without any intelligence information, does that make sense to you.

Now, whether they got out of hand on purpose or unexpectedly that is something only those in the know know.

reader QsaTheory said...

Yes, Muslims in Canada, US and Australia are very successful because they were mostly students with mostly affluent background that stayed for one reason or another( including many of my friends). Or immigrated legally with the right qualification.

However, in Europe the situation is different, especially France and UK because of their Colonial past and proximity to north Africa. Many of those who were nationalized were from background of Soldiers who fought in their imperial armies, so they had already a weak social background, you expect their offspring even for minority of them no to be energetic. And of of course you get many illegal people like Mexicans in the US. The US however is Large and able to absorb them unlike Europe.

reader MikeN said...

When someone said this in Denmark, that the Islamic people are responsible for the rapes, he was put in jail.

reader MikeN said...

Yes, crime will not be a big deal in Europe, so long as the population learns to live according to the wishes of Muslim sharia law.

reader Swine flu said...

Well, Major Hasan of Fort Hood - - was even American-born, so invulnerable we are most certainly not. Still, the US is not based on a single ethnicity the way some major European states have been historically, so it is easier for us not to discriminate against an immigrant group. It is not a panacea, but it helps.

I suspect another ingredient is that having to absorb such diverse groups we may have evolved a greater degree of political correctness in certain matters. In controlled doses, that can probably be a good thing, although unintended consequences always loom large in such matters. Basically, it must be applied symmetrically between all groups, and that is not at all always the case here. And yet, it may still be a factor in whatever differences one sees between the US and Europe.

reader davideisenstadt said...

nigger please, as my african american friends would say.
your comment is beneath contempt.

reader davideisenstadt said...

yeah, if the victim could round up four eyewitnesses to the event....
take your sharia law and your outdated misogynist culture and stick it up your ass, along with some guys penis.
As if we dont know that womens' testimony isn't worth that of a mans under sharia law.
Unfortunately for you, some of have read the koran that the hadiths, and are on to your bullshit.
lie to others, who dont know your game.
hypocrite, liar. you are lower than whale shit at low tide.
you dont even have the decency to live by the backward, neanderthal beliefs that you defend.

reader davideisenstadt said...

If you seriously want to be considered as a thoughtful commenter on this blog, I would concede this point.

reader davideisenstadt said...

sad, isn't it?

reader davideisenstadt said...

thats why you guys drink camel urine?

reader davideisenstadt said...

they were degraded by the germans, and were saved by the last 70 years...take your face out of mein kamf, and get into the non psychotic world.

reader davideisenstadt said...

therefore it is okay that your country rounded up jewish kids to be killed by the nazis, and at the same time stole the jews' belongings and property?
you should have been killed with the collaborators after the war.

reader Shannon said...

Zephir, this jew has chosen the worst places to walk (north Paris probably, and at a pro-Palestinian gathering. He shouldn't be wearing his kippa either, as none of the muslims should be wearing their niqab and the blacks shouldn't be allowed to put their hoods on.
Clothes send messages.

reader Shannon said...

David, FYI the boss of LICRA, Alain Jakubowicz (French Jewish association), has firmly asked Netanyahu to stop at once asking French jewish people to go to Israel. He added "you (Netanyahu) are implying that French jewish are less French than their fellow citizens. This is what French jewish hear when they listen to you".

reader Shannon said...

If you say so...

reader Shannon said...

Shalom my friend. Take it easy. Why don't you say: oh well we jews are not very open to non jews, good or bad, that's the way we are. No instead you always feel a need to shout.
French people have hidden a lot of jewish kids from the Nazis during the war, and you know it. Swiss might have stolen a lot of belongings and money from you guys. Not the French.
Heh I have an idea: why don't Netanyahu hire a few non jews in his government ? I think it would be a great idea, don't you ?

reader Shannon said...

Haha! Probably...

reader Shannon said...

Yes that is true for the US. . Jews have contributed to the collapse of the economy too, Gene. I am not blaming them as a race, I am wondering if their Talmudist view of the world hasn't contributed to this mayhem.

reader QsaTheory said...


Adultery in traditional Judaism applies to both parties, but depends on the marital status of the woman (Lev. 20:10). Though the Torah prescribes the death penalty for adultery, the legal procedural requirements were very exacting and required the testimony of two eyewitnesses of good character for conviction. The defendant also must have been warned immediately before performing the act.[56] A death sentence could be issued only during the period when the Holy Temple stood, and only so long as the Supreme Torah Court convened in its chamber within the Temple complex.[57] Today, therefore, no death penalty applies.[58] The death penalty for adultery was strangulation,[59] except in the case of a woman who was the daughter of a Kohain (Aaronic priestly caste), which was specifically mentioned by Scripture by the death penalty of burning (pouring molten lead down the throat).[60] Ipso facto, there never was mentioned in Pharisaic or Rabbinic Judaism sources a punishment of stoning for adulterers as mentioned in John 8.

The Talmud derives these laws from a close reading of the biblical passage:

“If a man finds a virgin girl who was not betrothed, and seizes her and lies with her, and they are found, then the man who lay with her shall give fifty [shekels of] silver to the girl’s father, and she shall become his wife, because he violated her. He shall not be able to send her away all the days of his life.”1

These are very old religions, you just pretend that you don't understand such simple concept.

David, my earlier post were meant partly to say that your vulgar style of writing can be matched. However, it is useless, but it seems that you have become very good at it because your arguments are very weak.

I have disagreed with many people here , but none showed your personality.

I am done with wasting my time with you.

reader Shannon said...

Qsa, I am a very curious/nosy person and I'd like to know if you, a Koweitian, has more than one wife ? Please don't take it as racist question because it is not. Pure curiosity.

reader QsaTheory said...

I have been happily married for the past 26 years, I have four grown up children. One is an engineer, another Radiologist, this studying to be a doctor and my fourth daughter is still in school with top grades, she is a little devil.

Vast majority of Arabs are of urban areas and have one wife it is simply impractical.

Second wives still exist for people of tribal origins although it is becoming less popular because of economics.

reader Shannon said...

Thanks Qsa for your answer.
As a French woman I would be unconfortable with the idea of a man with a harem of wives. I am sure you can understand this. I hope this custom will disappear from the Arab world eventually.

reader QsaTheory said...

women feel strongly all over the world.

reader Luboš Motl said...

I assure you that I attended e.g. a Jewish thanksgiving dinner in my adviser's household, among other things.

reader cynholt said...

Good thing Obama took out Gaddafi. Let's see how many more Christians get beheaded.

reader Shannon said...

Good to hear ;-)

reader cynholt said...

This is all interconnected geopolitically. The goal of the aggressors is total global domination -- the control of coveted resources and populations who want to create indigenous alternatives. I read a policy statement from a liberalhawk think tank the other day which stated that the real issue with Iran is not over nuclear fuels. It is that Iran is setting a "bad" example in insisting on sovereignty, in refusing to submit to the powerful, military-backed Washington consensus whose stated goal is total global dominance.

One effect of the Paris attack is to rally the EU public to war against so-called Islamist extremists, fueling racism, militarism, and runaway inequality and poverty. Missing from media coverage is the fact that France, like other Western powers, has funded, armed, trained, and sheltered both mercenaries and true believers who converge in hot spots to fight the West's imperial wars. So embedded in this mess are feedback loops that are gaining momentum, making things hotter and hotter, more and more violent, runaway barbarism -- if more level heads don't prevail.

reader davideisenstadt said...

beneath contempt.

reader davideisenstadt said...

why dont you just say "we french are thieves, murderers of little children, spineless ingrates who waste the gift of freedom, and are nothing more than cheese eating surrender monkeys"?

reader cynholt said...

We, the US citizens, are being played. The government has found a way to keep us constantly at war and a war that has the support of the majority. This has been the goal for decades. Billions of dollars are pouring into the coffers of those who supply and finance the military and everything else associated with war.

In addition, our rights are being taken away at a breakneck pace. No longer do we have a right to a lawyer or even a phone call under the the Patriot Act. We can be locked up indefinitely or even be executed with no opportunity to face an accuser. Sounds a lot like Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union

These are the reasons we are at war.

reader cynholt said...

The disgusting, racist, sexist Saudi government beheaded over twenty men last month for violating Islamic "law". But the US not only refuses to act, it refuses to discuss such crimes, preferring to bomb the ISIS monster, which it created.

We're being played, folks.

reader Swine flu said...

"In our secular republic of France we shouldn't be wearing kippas, niqab or any distinctive religious signs."

Churches (and all other identifiably constructed houses of worship) are also rather distinctive and indicate a connection with religion. Should they all be closed? Or just made to look like an office building from the outside? Is the goal perfect secularism or freedom? Would you not be infringing on someone's fundamental human rights by not letting him wear a little cross on a chain while walking down the street? Or a kippa? Or a Muslim scarf?

It only makes sense to restrict what clothes people can wear in public areas under two circumstances. One is security. If a state finds that a fully covered face is a safety hazard, they can outlaw wearing clothes that fully cover a face. I think they may have adopted such a measure in Italy after Aldo Moro's assassination back in the 1970's, but I am not sure. In any case, banning a burqa - - seems like a legitimate option for a state. Scarves and such do not fall under this category.

The other, harder to define situation would be combating discrimination against women. I've seen claims that in some urban zones in Europe, women are forced to cover their hair for safety despite even quite a few of them having immigrated from the countries where this was not obligatory. The atmosphere of intimidation against women, if it exists, should certainly be dealt with most vigorously, but is the petty approach of telling people exactly how they may and may not cover their hair the right approach? And what about Muslim women who actually want to wear a scarf?

reader Swine flu said...

Have a little patience. We are not yet energy-independent.

And since I missed that bit of news, what were the charges against them?

reader mesocyclone said...

Yeah, that was a dumb move. It was especially bad because the US had cut a deal with Gaddafi where he gave up his WMD program (notably, to the US, not the UN) and we didn't invade him. The later move by Obama, just like his failure to support the Sunni's in Iraq, tells the world that the US cannot be trusted as an ally.

reader Tomas said...

Dear Lubos, grate post. The only thing which is not clear in my mind is the following: if the predicted inflation is to be reflected in the home credit interest rates, how it is possible that despite the foreseen inflation of 2% in Eurozone, people get credits well below this value (my new home credit in Germany is 1,49%), and the tendency is even decreasing. Best Tomas

reader Luboš Motl said...

Dear Tomas, a very important question of yours, and I don't know any answer that I could be certain of.

More generally, you are asking how it's possible that the real interest rates (well, sometimes even nominal interest rates!) become negative.

If it's just the real interest rates that are negative, it's not really a true paradox. It simply means that one may be certain of having "increasing real wealth" by getting a home credit loan. The inflation rate is different for different kinds of products or services, so the homes may have a lower rate than some other products from which the inflation rate is calculated.

So this is not really paradoxical. Below, I will talk about the possibility that the *nominal* interest rates are negative as well - something that should mean that it's better to store cash under the pillows.

One possible loophole is that the participants of the (home credit-like) transactions just believe that the inflation will average much lower than 2% over the coming decade or two.

Another one is that the market has been distorted and is still being distorted so that similar absurdities exist. People were pumped banknotes through their throats and they often feel sick.

A third one is that maybe it's not an absurdity and it's possible even without distortions. People may grow hysterically afraid of being in debt, because it may be a big problem in the future, so even 0% interest rate isn't acceptable for them.

They may also be afraid that the large cash under pillows will be devalued (failed to be stamped, like in February 1993 currency separation of Czechoslovakia) so they sometimes prefer to lend it even for negative rates.

And so on.

I don't really know what's the right explanation of these strangely low rates and at the end, I do believe that it's some anomalous period depending on distortions and irrationality which has to be superseded by a sensible period in which the interest rates are positive - and quite larger.

reader Tomas said...

Dear Lubos, thank you for your replay. Neither know I the right answer, neither does my banker. Being asked he told me that they do not lend their own money. They actually book the money for a home loan by the ECB and get them "ALMOST FOR FREE": for 0,01% per year. Consequently, they make nominal profit at almost any interest rate.

Let me now use the nice parable about a government printing money and giving it for free to the "prodigal" state officers, and please correct flaws in my reasoning. If I suppose that the ECB prints money to lend them almost for free to banks, I may clearly identify the ECB with that irresponsible government, and banks with those "prodigal" state officers. Let me now use the conclusion you made: people in such a fictive country would gradually lose their confidence in their local (in your model still fictive) currency, and will try to find something else to put value in (since their currency becomes quickly unpredictable), e.g. to buy ground, houses, objects of art, if they are able to buy this. If they are unable to buy something of value, they just spend their money in a non reasonable way which they prefer over losing them (2 Porsches of my neighbors being always in location - I don`t judge that, be sure , etc.).

Now you understand that I am talking about Euro and Germany (at least Bayern). Confidence in that currency here in Munich borders global minimum, and reality market got unchained. The prices have doubled in 5 years, and what people didn´t want to pay 5 years ago for a house in an OK location, they pay with joy for small flats in less than average
places of the city. All have become hysterical, one have to fight for even a phone call from a makler. A common credo is: there is no other way to evaluate bank deposits als to kneel down before reality maklers. Isn´t this the same effect on the currency you deduced from your toy model?

You may now object that the ECB cannot be identified with the government of your model just because the existence of that opposing force that would prevent the ECB to print banknotes and provide them to banks ad infinitum. This might be true but I don´t see such a force at work now. Everyone who wants a credit and is able to provide reasonable guarantee, gets it. Not even gets it, banks fight for him lowering interests rates after each visit. Myself, I did 3 rounds, chose one of the banks, and the one I didn´t chose proposed me a re-finincing in a future for 1,3%, providing I sign now (by the way, I was told that I could have come again there and they would have "adjusted" their proposal :-)).

So, that's it. Your post over Germany was entirely positive, I just wanted to point some observation that I do not consider 100% healthy. Your cousin knows the situation better than I, and surely has told you more...

All the best Lubosi, I am grateful for this discussion.

Best regards Doul

reader Luboš Motl said...

Dear Doule, cool, so it is really you and we know each other from school!? ;-) Great to see you here.

I agree with your analysis - the superlow central bank interest rates are sufficient to make arbitrarily low positive interest rates for home credit loans etc. profitable for the banks.

The countering force is that ČNB or ECB are supposed to target inflation. If or when they pump too much money at this technical zero interest rate to the banks, they are expected to produce inflation - sooner or later (it seems largely absent but as you point out, it depends where you look) - and if they see inflation in a few years, they should be expected to honor their targeting of the 2% inflation rate which means that the central banks' interest rates should go up again.

That's why these low interest rates should always be a temporary fluke - because the low inflation must be rather temporary, too. But Japan has seen around-zero inflation for decades, so it's hard to be sure about the timescale.

There must exist some "non-monetary" reasons why people don't want to borrow too much even if the interest rates are so low. Japan is overcrowded, so people are not excited about the idea of new investments in Japan, for example.

reader Tomas said...

Yes, Lumo, I still remember our preparation to the state exam in QFT, before you left for Rutgers - those were the times :-)).

I agree with what you wrote about temporary character of low interest rates. The problem is that German economists are now talking about a permanent state (cf. Der Spiegel Nr.7/7.2.2015; pages 62-70,"Null negative" - "anything else would be a catastrophe"; "game over"; and similar statements). So I am curious how it develops in the future.

I wish you all the best, greetings to the European Capital of Culture. TD

reader mar o said...

Sorry, it's been a while.

Let's forget about the details for the moment and look at a simple example. Let's say a high tech land like Germany buys resources from another country and uses them to make high quality products. A trade surplus now reflects the situation that Germany exports goods with a higher value than the value of the resources to said country. This is precisely what many people criticize about Greece: that the people there have lived beyond their means.

So how can there be a trade surplus without someone living beyond their means?

reader Luboš Motl said...

You're not the first one to write this thing down. Indeed, if trade surpluses exist, there must also exist trade deficits somewhere, and that's a part of "living beyond one's means".

But the previous sentence doesn't mean that the two conditions are equally praiseworthy. Saying that they are equally praiseworthy is just like saying that the OIympic medals are thanks to the athletes with lousy times or other performance.

The athlete with the best time wins the gold while the athletes on the opposite side win šit, and that's how it must be for the competition to be any meaningful.

And hyper PC folks like you must also be told that gold isn't the same thing as šit.

Analogously, trade surplus and trade deficit isn't the same thing. By trade surpluses, a country etc. becomes more resilient in the future, by running deficits, it runs towards self-destruction, and that's how things must be, otherwise nations would stop making things.

reader mar o said...

Since countries running deficits get their money from countries with a surplus, a country running into self-destruction will damage the surplus countries as well.

And your analogy with sports is flawed on another level. A balanced foreign trade doesn't mean that there are no winners or losers. A country which makes high quality goods will still have a superior economy to a country which exports only resources.

reader Luboš Motl said...

Default doesn't mean a major problem for lenders or lender-countries because

1) much of the debt is recovered from the flesh of the bankrupt entity that is torn to pieces and distributed to lenders

2) the part that they don't recover was statistically paid to the lenders because they were getting higher interests - the risk of the default was incorporated in the interest rates, that's how the rates were determined, it was for the lenders not to lose in the long run

3) lenders are lending to many borrowers

The loan is a "symmetric" or "consensual" relationship of two parties up to the moment when the treaty is obeyed along the consensual lines. Default means that one side, the lender, has violated the contract, so all the symmetry evaporates.

You should have understood these things already in the kindergarten but surely well before you post comments on this blog, so I made that your stupid comment above to be your last comment here.

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