We got used to the predictions of the Nobel prize winners by Thomson Reuters. The awards will be announced between October 3rd and 10th. The predictions are in the article
They predict a medicine Nobel for immune systems – related to CD28 and CTLA-4; or for cell death-1 PD-1; or for TOR+mTOR growth regulators.
The chemistry is supposed to go to CRISPR-cas9 gene editing; or the retention EPR (not Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen, I guess) effect of cancer-related drugs.
Economics to Blanchard (fluctuations, employment); or Lazear (personnel economics); or Melitz (heterogeneity in international trade).
Most interestingly, their top physics candidates are
- Marvin Cohen for material science and pseudopotential method (see TRF on a 2004 colloquium)
- Ronald Drever, Kip Thorne, Rainer Weiss for LIGO which detected gravitational waves 1 year and 1 week ago
- Celso Grebogi, Edward Ott, James A. Yorke for OGY control theory of chaotic systems
LIGO members who had the pleasure to see the victory in 2015-2016 have done important things as well but I believe that the contributions of the forefathers of the LIGO experiment were more substantial and I hope that those will be picked.
Note that the candidates have to be nominated by the end of January. But the LIGO discovery was officially announced only on February 11th. However, I can imagine that the forefathers of LIGO were nominated, anyway – without the knowledge of the press conference or with the unofficial, rumor-based knowledge of the press conference – and they may have been considered.
We will see in two weeks.