Technical analysis only "works" as a self-fulfilling prophesy

The Bitcoin price is apparently likely to exhibit the "death cross" within a week. It is a bearish sign that makes people expect a significant collapse of the Bitcoin price. If you click, you will learn that a death cross is the situation when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day one but they are approaching one another and the "death cross" moment is when the short-term, 50-day moving average drops below the long-term, 200-day one.



It tells you that "the recent prices are getting lower than the historical prices" so we're going down. The opposite situation is a "golden cross" which would be a bullish sign, a sign expected to induce an increase in the price.

Is this rule correct? Does it follow from pure mathematics? From the pure laws of economics? From the laws of physics? Or is it a counterpart of astrology? Indeed, these methods are called "technical analysis" (and these astrologers – believing that you may predict the future of a graph just by seeing patterns in the past – are called "chartists") and the first paragraph of the Wikipedia page says that "many Academics consider technical analysis a pseudoscience". Well, of course, I largely endorse that group. But things are more subtle and I would be absolutely dissatisfied with a simple one-word judgement here.

There won't be any nontrivial Fall 2021 Covid wave in CZ, UK, most of Europe, US...

I can guarantee it for you, insure you

The numbers of new positive tests have been dropping in Czechia since early March and this time, it is obvious that this quasi-exponential decrease is the last one. Technically speaking, it is right to say that Czechia has enjoyed the herd immunity (towards the latest, most contagious, variants) since early March (even though the daily casualties were huge and the fraction of infected surely counted as an epidemics) because the quasi-exponential decrease has been statistically guaranteed since that moment because \(R_0\lt 1\) was true, even with relaxed restrictions. But only these days, the number of deaths has dropped to "roughly one or two" and the herd immunity has clearly done an overwhelming fraction of its hard work.



Dr Zdeněk Hostomský, the director of the Institute of Organic Chemistry and Biochemistry of the Czech Academy of Sciences (and a former boss of cancer research at Pfizer!), became the latest competent Czech scientist who has communicated the vital scientific knowledge to the media. For months, he has emphasized that the lockdown didn't work and should have been terminated.

In more recent interviews and essays, he says that lives may still be saved by vaccinating the people in the risk groups (my estimate is that we would have had 40,000 casualties instead of 30,000 if there had been no vaccines; but now, only dozens of lives will be saved by new vaccinations) and it's a good idea to spend energy by persuading them. Also, he says that in the summer, there will be almost no Covid virus in Czechia because we've achieved some sort of herd immunity that will show its muscles.

Why some stopped hiring Ivy League alumni

Russell Ronald (R.R.) Reno III, the editor-in-chief of First Things, an intellectual Christian magazine, wrote a nice essay for the Wall Street Journal,

Why I Stopped Hiring Ivy League Graduates.

A decade ago, he would still consider Princeton, Harvard, and similar graduates as top candidates for a job (of writers). But it has changed. These days, some are woke; some are self-important; but more importantly, most have been stripped of role models and trained to be silent when it matters. I couldn't agree more.

M-theory on \(G_2\) manifolds, heterotic strings, oceans, climate, and carbon

This unattractive Titanic-like building will become Czechia's tallest building (135 meters) and will be built just miles from the Prague Castle, in order to make us remember that the "architect" was impressed by the climate hysteria and willing to promote the lies about the climate.

Among the new hep-th papers that were released today, five mention a "string" in the abstract. I think that the following paper is the most interesting one:

Non-Perturbative Heterotic Duals of M-Theory on \(G_2\) Orbifolds

It's a nice paper that could have been written during the Duality Revolution in string theory of the mid 1990s but it waited up to 2021. It is a six-or-seven-dimensional or \(G_2\) counterpart of the statement that the \(T^4/ \ZZ_2\) orbifold is a special case of a \(K3\) manifold; and that the \(K3\) manifold may degenerate into two "half-\(K3\)" manifolds that are connected by a three-toroidal throat (times a line interval with irregular ends).

The FBI may very well possess most Bitcoin private keys, other passwords in the world

The U.S. and China are among countries whose governments are planning to restrict the cryptocurrency activities. On the other hand, a confederacy of 25,000 gang members known as El Salvador claimed to adopt the Bitcoin as an official currency (these criminals have been using crypto for a long time so it's not really news). Another great friend of the U.S., Iran's mullah-in-chief, has also called for the legalization of the Bitcoin (Iran and North Korea have used Bitcoin to circumvent sanctions etc., too). Meanwhile, Donald Trump said that the Bitcoin seemed like a scam – and a thing that wanted to challenge the global dominance of his preferred currency (it has a name imported from the Czech language). Meanwhile, the FBI did something cool that drove the Bitcoin price below $32k again.



Hackers have hacked and encrypted files on the Colonial Pipeline servers. The breach was harmful, oil stopped flowing, and the company has actually paid some $4 million in Bitcoin in ransom. The files were decrypted (not all extortionists are this honest!) and the oil flows were resumed.

That ransom came to dozens of wallets but... the FBI conquered $2.3 million, a majority of the ransom, because it acquired the private key – the longer gibberish sequence of digits that is needed to send funds (to "sign" the electronic confirmations that the owner wants to send something) – from the largest Bitcoin wallet. How is it possible? It should be impossible (in any realistic timeframe) to calculate the (longer) private key from the publicly known data – which seems to be just the public key.

Lab leaks, bioweapons, and gain of function research

Many TRF readers recommend this Nicholas Wade's article about the artificial origin of the virus

From the beginning of the Covid era, it looked very likely that the appearance of the new virus in Wuhan has something to do with the biological lab over there – which has investigated coronaviruses and bats, among other things. The accumulation of two such things in Wuhan could be coincidental but the geographic evidence is rather strong that it was not coincidental.

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/rbWqqAOCEg

— Hanka (@HankaH13) June 3, 2021

Czech molecular geneticist Ms Soňa Peková was among the first ones, if not the first one in the world, who presented technical arguments that the virus was not quite natural. Unsurprisingly, she was attacked by the (clearly ideologically driven) far left "journalists" and similar folks who know less than 0.1% about genetics compared to what she knows. I don't quite understand these technical arguments. But it is clear that there are many levels of "human intervention" that could have "helped" to spark the epidemics. It could have been a natural virus that was "just" nontrivially isolated, reproduced, and leaked. The leak could have been an accident or not. An existing virus could have been genetically modified and the degree of modification could be minor or substantial, and so on. I don't think that such adjustments to a virus are a cutting-edge science today. The virus could have also been intentionally modified so that it is more harmful to the whites and blacks and less harmful to the East Asians.

There are lots of uncertainties – and there are even greater uncertainties about the motivation behind these acts if there were any.

Predators, hawks are more intelligent than their prey

Left-wing "virtues" are not positively correlated with the intelligence at all

I had a fun chat with a right-wing friend that was dedicated to some recent battles on the Czech political scene (Klaus vs Soros' conspiracy theorists; Babiš vs Pirates), and related events. And I couldn't overlook his assertion that, roughly speaking

a person's preference for non-violent solutions is highly positively correlated with his or her intelligence.

Oh, really? This belief made me worried (and upset) because the conflation of intelligence and left-wing and PC beliefs is clearly one of the most fundamental lies that the New Left is using to accelerate the putrefaction of our civilization. The extreme leftist scum is increasingly filling the media, schools and other institutions with people who aren't good craftsmen according to the old-fashioned meritocratic standards but who are sufficiently convenient for (or compatible with) the left-wing lies. Such as lies about the equality of everything and lies about the reliable superiority of the would-be "oppressed" groups.



The lie about the equivalence of leftism (or snowflakeness or related "left-wing virtues") with intelligence has been a powerful tool designed to increase the influence of degenerated leftists for a simple reason: in its collective wisdom, the society realizes very clearly that the intelligence (and the intelligent people) is a virtue, something that is needed for a nation's (or another group's) successful competition with others and for the sufficiently glorious progress of mankind as a whole. When people fail to distinguish between the intelligence and the snowflakeness, the abused and misdirected collective wisdom will have the effect of promoting the snowflakeness as well, and that was indeed what we were observing in recent decades.

Soviet loan fake news: Václav Klaus Institute responds to a non-apology

IVK's response to the reaction of the editors-in-chief of HN and Aktuálně.cz regarding the false accusation of Václav Klaus of sending 1.3 billion US dollars to the USSR

JIŘÍ WEIGL
PETR MACINKA

Dear editors-in-chief,

We are disappointed by your response to our public letter and request for an apology for fabricating a conspiracy theory about a secret loan to the USSR just before November 1989. The fact that you are unable to acknowledge the misconduct of the media you control, and dare to apologetically call blatant lies "media shorthand", is an example of arrogance and hippopotamus [thick] skin that is contrary to any elementary journalistic ethics.

Steve Koonin responds to an article in SciAm

SciAm rejected to publish the following response by Dr S. Koonin
Koonin responds to a Scientific American article by Oreskes et al.

Scientific American has published a criticism of me and my recent book, Unsettled. Most of that article’s 1,000 words are scurrilous ad hominem and guilt-by-association aspersions from the twelve co-authors. Only three scientific criticisms are buried within their spluttering; here is my response to each them.

12 or 100 totalitarian pseudoscientific authors against Steven E. Koonin

Steven Koonin has released his new 240-page-long book Unsettled where the physicist and a (former) Obama Administration official explains why the climate change talking points are misleading propaganda. It seems to be a bestselling book and the average rating from the 400+ reviews at Amazon.com gives the book 4.8 stars.

Steven E. Koonin got his undergrad degree at Caltech, his PhD from the MIT, and he has been a theoretical physicist for decades. His papers include those about nuclear physics (including the reactions in the Sun), many-body physics, computational physics, biophysics, and physics of renewable energy sources, among other things.

A nasty story about the Soviet debt

A newspaper article was recently published that attacks Czech ex-president Klaus and claims that he has secretly lent a billion dollars to the Soviet Union in late 1989 – and the current president Zeman arguably completed the sin by forgiving the debt later.

The statement by the Václav Klaus Institute below demonstrates why the article is a collection of many independent insulting lies. If the Belorusian passenger has committed just 20% of what these Czech pseudo-journalistic aßholes have done, I would have quite some understanding for the special maneuvers needed to remove this writer from the aircraft. Some people are just amazing scum. Their goal isn't just to spread lies about individuals; they want to cripple the society as a whole. And the readers who take this junk seriously must be incredible morons. Even if the statements were right, well, we were still allies of the Soviet Union in late 1989 – and Moscow was transforming itself in a way that was not so far from our transformation. It would still be completely crazy to interpret the events from the perspective of some contemporaries' unhinged Russophobia.



IVK demands a public apology to Václav Klaus from Hospodářské noviny [a WSJ-like economics-focused Czech daily]

PRESS RELEASES, 29 MAY 2021,
automatically translated by the incredible deepl.com

Mr. Editor-in-Chief Mašek,

On Tuesday, 25 May 2021, your newspaper, along with other media outlets of your parent publishing house Economia, launched a targeted campaign of disparagement against President Václav Klaus by printing a lengthy front-page article with the incredible headline "Klaus secretly sent billions to the Soviets after the revolution". It claims, allegedly on the basis of archival material, that the then first post-communist Czechoslovak finance minister secretly sent USD 1.3 billion to the USSR after the revolution, and that this plan was hatched in 1989 by a clerk at the Federal Ministry of Finance (!!!), a certain Zdeněk Rachač, allegedly an StB agent, who was supposedly Klaus's advisor. You have therefore attempted to impose on the reader the view that Václav Klaus was from the beginning a participant in some kind of communist conspiracy and from his first days in office he was consciously and conspiratorially damaging our country.

Leftist groups and symbiosis of unattractive radicals and moderate hedonists

Wow, I was shocked by the flawlessness of the DeepL machine translation (of my blog) to Czech and Slovak. Try your language pairs and texts, an example with ENG-SVK and my blog https://t.co/dqdxbXDGke

— Luboš Motl (@lumidek) May 30, 2021

TOP 09 is a small Czech political party (which would probably earn below 5% in the coming elections – but it will get to the Parliament through a larger coalition "SPOLU" [together] that it has joined) which is my country's counterpart of the CDU in Germany: an entity pretending to be conservative which has become a hotbed of the most insane "progressive" (and globalist, multicultural, Russophobic...) far left ideology. The leftists who want to preserve some conservative image often pick TOP 09 as their party. It was formed in 2009 when it separated from KDU-ČSL (the acronym KDU means the same as CDU, ČSL is the Czechoslovak People's Party), a much older party.

It was initially founded by Miroslav Kalousek, a skillful and talented polemicist in the Parliament who later served as a Czech minister of finance and got many awards, and I think that rightfully so. His most important buddy was "Prince" Karl Schwarzenberg, an old repeatedly sleeping Austrian aristocrat who has always emphasized his proximity to the Czech ex-president Václav Havel and who has once served as the minister of foreign affairs.



These two dudes were gradually drifting towards the extreme left, perhaps analogously to Angela Merkel and many others, but the newer generation of leaders such as Ms Markéta Adamová-Pekarová, the current chairwoman, are no longer pretending to have some real relationships with genuinely conservative values any longer. She is (and others are) a copy of the Communist Youth organizations before 1989. But the picture above is that of Dominik Feri, a special case.