"Very high probabilities that theorems are true" are fallacious

David B. sent me a recent article by Mussardo and LeClair that uses the Mertens function i.e. the cummulative sum of the Möbius function to produce a statistical argument in favor of the Riemann Hypothesis. It's interesting but at the end, I believe that we already have lots of these incomplete "statistical arguments in favor of the Riemann Hypothesis". They have actually existed for centuries; most mathematicians have believed that the hypothesis was true and the "circumstantial evidence" was always an important reason of that belief.



Yes, this article hugely overlaps with \(P=NP\) is conceivable; there is no partial evidence in purely discrete mathematics (2014). See other blog posts that mention probabilities and Riemann or \(P\), \(NP\), proofs.

Fine, I have spent hundreds of hours with the Riemann Hypothesis in my life. Almost all my attacks on the problem were naturally thinking of "physical systems" where a function related to the Riemann zeta function was a partition sum or something similar. Some of them were just quantum mechanical problems of particles on some graphs (with line intervals whose lengths was related to primes), some of them had creation and annihilation operators for primes, the most sophisticated ones involved the tachyon minimum in string field theory or \(p\)-adic string theory.

Farcical pseudoscience of the new South African variant

Omicron is a dumb story designed to bring the Coronazi ultramorons' hysteria to an even higher level

In the morning, I needed some 10 minutes to find out why the stock futures are collapsing today. Yes, when the movements are sharp, there is usually a single explanation (while the attributions of smaller, noise-like movements are usually fuzzy fairy-tales) and today it is

A new Covid-19 variant could show immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility, South African scientists warn (CNN)

Oh I see. So some African "scientists" have found a new genetic code of a SARS-CoV-2 descendant and called it the B.1.1.529 variant, also called "omicron" by the WHO or "nu" by others or (by the nutty Belgian PM) Covid-21. It has the highest number of mutations and maybe, perhaps, it will not only be more transmissible but also evade the immune system and other things. Millions of people clearly buy the garbage "science" news every day and today, this stuff is apparently enough to subtract 4% from DAX (the German index) while the Prague Index only lost 1.67% at the end (thank God, a lukewarm version of the psychopathy is here); some of the drop is "justifiable" by the fact that politicians are discussing new travel bans and similar things again (VIX, the index of fear, goes up damn 46%). How totally braindead do you have to become to buy something like that and react in this way? I am absolutely shocked by the sheer stupidity of so many people.



Botswana

In fact, everyone who believes any alarmism sold as "science" is a completely braindead pile of šit. There has never been a single prediction made by these alarmist scientists that turned out to be accurate and useful. Instead, virtually every single meme that these "scientists" (which are not scientists in the proper sense) have ever produced to get their dirty money has been deeply harmful for our societies because almost all of them have pushed millions of people to behave completely irrationally.

Václav Klaus's answers to questions posed by the server iUhli.cz (iCoal)

Interview with the Czech ex-president

One of the main topics of today is the Brussels plan for a rapid comprehensive transformation of the EU member states, called the Green Deal (or the Green Destiny in Czechia). It has its supporters and opponents. Which group do you belong to?

I am, of course, a total opponent of the Green Deal. One thing is the reason for the aggressive and destructive fight against global warming and CO2 emissions, the other is the EU's own plan to "green" [verb] Europe, the European economy and to create carbon neutrality in Europe, and presenting it as a way to make the European economy more efficient. The opposite is true. I have been actively involved in these issues – writing and lecturing – for at least 15 years, and passively, that is to say, with marginal comments, for three decades. It's the same "song and dance", the arguments on both sides remain the same. I already saw the "end of the world" in the formation of the Club of Rome in the late 60s and early 70s.

The United States is falling apart

The United States is in danger of chaos and possibly totalitarianism, then a new state will emerge
An interview with Erik Best, a US journalist based in Prague since Feb 1991 (CZ audio)

Host Martina Kociánová: The rapid transformation of society throughout the Western world. This statement could be used to introduce many episodes of our interviews with various experts, scientists, analysts. What is happening? How come so fast? How is the world changing? Where is it heading? Where are the changes coming from, and what can we do about it? These are the most common questions that you, our listeners, and we are equally interested in, and that we always try to ask as well. The answers, of course, often raise concerns, because they usually say nothing about a beautiful bright future in which we will all lovingly hold hands and walk with a happy song towards a sunny horizon. That is how the future is portrayed by ideologues, not by people with their feet on the ground, and perhaps that is why so many people fall for ideologies. Maybe they want to believe the dream because it's more pleasant than facing an increasingly difficult reality. It is about ideologies that we are going to talk today, and how they are gradually metastasizing into our lives, but of course not only about them. For example, we will look at the United States through the eyes of a journalist from America who has lived here for 30 years. I'm going to be talking with my colleague, journalist, commentator, analyst, Erik Best.

Responding to a bunch of Coronazi demagogies

I just saw a very disappointing article written by a person whom I believed to know better. Except for the disappointment, it doesn't seem to matter who wrote it because the fans of Covid fascism seem to parrot the lies (and all the blackmail and insults) they heard from their comrades virtually verbatim. The title says

Everyone has the right to have his opinions but not his facts.

This slogan is not new, it has been popular among the extreme leftists for many years. The problem is that people don't agree what are "facts", either. Another problem is that almost all the "facts" spread by the Covid fascists are lies; and it is mostly the opponents of Covid fascism who mostly (but not always) reproduce the actual facts in their reality. At any rate, people have often disagreed what were the facts and this is why civilized societies of the democratic type have always allowed the freedom of thought and therefore "many possible truths". The truth is the first casualty of war, in this case a war that the Covid fascists wage on the not too harmful virus and especially on everyone who doesn't worship that virus. Covid demagogues suddenly think that they have the right to impose their "truth" on everyone else, including people who know vastly more about viruses than they do.

Czech crown billionaire-mathematician becomes an unlikely hero of anti-Coronazi resistance

A decade ago, billionaire Andrej Babiš created a movement that turned him into a top Czech government politician for many years. The era will end next month. His ANO (=YES) movement was originally all about "his fight against corruption" and populist claims that corruption was omnipresent. One of the folks who were indirectly helping him was another rich dude, Karel Janeček (net worth: $150 mil), who was born a few months before me and who is also an alumnus of the Math-Phys Dpt of the Charles University. (I say indirectly which means "by provoking the anti-corruption hysteria"; Janeček hasn't ever directly worked for Babiš.)

Nedopusťme návrat doby, kdy se nesmí zpívat. pic.twitter.com/kIIdtMLmPu

— Karel Janeček (@janecek252) November 19, 2021

Janeček previously became rich through some clever playing in Las Vegas (first million); and especially through algorithmic trading. He was capable of greatly extending the initial capital from his business partner Václav Dejčmar (who earned some millions from the early Czech Facebooks of the 1990s). Both are philanthropists and sponsors of science, among other things. I have known VD in person, much more than KJ, already from some discussion servers in the mid 1990s. I have met Janeček as well, in the case of KJ only during a dinner in their Field Restaurant in Prague (which just defended its Michelin star; the chef is Radim Kašpárek; it is located in the restaurant with many clocks in Best Offer, a movie).

President Klaus' speech on 17 November was timeless

...highlighting the importance and bravery of students during the events of 1939 and 1989...
By Ivo Strejček, IVK

On the festive day of 17 November 2021, there was only one prepared, thoughtful and serious political speech. It was delivered by President Václav Klaus at the memorial site in front of Hlávka College. This seems to be the only possible place to reflect on the meaning and legacy of 17 November 1939 and 1989 and to use this opportunity to reflect on the connections between these important milestones in modern Czech history and today. Performances with similar political speeches are no longer allowed on the National Avenue that was turned hysterical by the "truth and love warriors" [Czech SJWs named after Václav Havel's appealing but cheesy quote, "the truth and love must defeat the lies and hatred"].

Václav Klaus delivered a statesmanlike and inspiring speech to the high representatives of Czech academia and their students. It is not his fault that the reporter present (or a news editor?) narrowed the content of the speech to a shortened excerpt from his extensive speech to the sentence that "communism was not defeated by students or dissidents", only to have this shortcut subsequently taken up by the rest of the media. This is such a gross and purposeful misrepresentation of the content of the speech (which was subsequently used by all those who take every possible opportunity to smear Václav Klaus) that such journalistic sloppiness cannot go unnoticed.

Other people's inner consciousness is scientifically meaningless for you

...but that doesn't mean that the laws of Nature may be applied without a conscious entity...

Feedly.com threw a text by Sean Carroll at me. He argued in favor of "physicalism" (we live in a P-world where everything follows from consciousness-independent, objectively applied laws of physics) and against "panpsychism" (we live in the Ψ-world where the existence and omnipresence of consciousness is essential for things to work).



Carroll claims that we must live in the P-world because he mentally lives in the world where physical phenomena are described by classical physics.

But as the letter Ψ (Psi) and its well-known affiliation with quantum mechanics makes more than clear, the correct laws of Nature have been known for 96 years to be quantum mechanical i.e. dependent on the observer's consciousness. For quantum mechanical laws to be applied, one needs to insert the information about the results of observations which may be translated to the initial state. For the results of the observations to be well-defined, the observations themselves must be well-defined and the choice "what has been observed" is clearly subjective i.e. dependent on the observer's subjective choices.

Novelties of the non-existent Fall 2021 Covid wave in Europe

The Euromomo charts of the total deaths speaking a clear language.



Covid-19 has caused an enhanced wave of dying in Spring 2020 that was about 100%-200% of the usual excesses in early 2017 and 2018; and another, grander wave of dying in Fall 2020 and Winter 2020-2021 that was some 300% of a usual addition to deaths from flu. Covid, a new flu-like disease, temporarily trumped flu but not "qualitatively".

In Fall 2021, there is clearly absolutely no statistically significant excess of deaths in Europe which is why it's possible for the end of the graph to show the below-the-normal deaths although the latest weeks may be updated soon (yellow). For some 20+ weeks, Czechia has exhibited below-the-normal total deaths in almost all the weeks (and tiny excesses in 2 exceptions), too.

Let's not let finance and banking turn green

Let's not make old mistakes
By former Czech President Klaus

In the early 1990s, I polemicised the use of completely misleading adjectives that usually denied rather than developed the following noun. It was a well-known battle in Europe, which had its main meaning in the German-speaking world, over the so-called soziale Marktwirtschaft (social market economy). The society (not only the economy!) of Germany and Austria was based on it in the second half of the 20th century. And it was to be ours too.



LM: I guess that my choice of this 1989 photo will raise Klaus' blood pressure (he was medically treated for that recently) but it's November 17th today. ;-)

But I and the people around me wanted to introduce a "market without adjectives" in our country. It goes without saying that society must also think socially (I did not deny this for a second, even though many did not and do not want to know), but I considered it necessary that the word "socially" should follow the word "market", not precede it.

Satoshi Nakamoto Florida trial

Willie Soon sent me this fresh article at the Daily Mail (see also Google News, Twitter) talking about an ongoing trial, Dave Kleiman's relatives vs Craig Wright, about the ownership of roughly 1.1 million Bitcoin ($65 billion by current near-record prices) which were mined in the first year of the Bitcoin.



Kleiman died some years ago. These two men clearly knew one another very well, they were friends for some time, Kleiman contributed to the decline of Wright's marriage, the relationship soured for other reasons as well. They had some contract to share those BTC 1 million. The question is whether both of them owned it. A technical "detail" that helps to clarify these things is the question whether Wright himself or Wright+Kleiman were the fathers of the Bitcoin, aka Satoshi Nakamoto. I have discussed this question since 2019 and sketched it already in 2015.

Those who lynch Kyle Rittenhouse are pure evil

I just spent some hours with the Kyle Rittenhouse trial. It is just incredible what many Americans, including (or especially) Americans with lots of influence, do these days. OK, what is going on?

In August 2020, there was a lot of crime on the streets of the U.S. cities. Police forces were being attacked and their activity was suppressed. Organized crime was ruling the streets of many cities, especially the "BLM" criminal organization. That was also the case in Kenosha, Wisconsin, where some anger and looting was "justified" by a (logical) death of a black criminal (sexual assault, was using knife against cops in the car). A 17-year-old dude Kyle Rittenhouse from Antioch, Illinois (an adjacent state) was just attending an event for cadets (policemen in training) in the Kenosha area. He had other emotional attachments to the place.

The absurdly pathetic "result" of COP26

Another summit of the climate psychopaths and their spineless collaborationists ended in Glasgow. The format was the same one that we remembered in dozens of previous summits: 30,000 parasites arrived by private jets and have bullšited about the evil of CO2 emissions for two weeks. The content of their talks was just nonsensical irrelevant gibberish, there was no agreement about anything, the talks had to go to overtime, like always, and some "result" was announced afterwards:

Nations including China and India agreed to say something about the "phaseout" of coal while all words that indicated some substance were deleted or softened to become completely ill-defined.

Even if some of these statements about the future were well-defined, it would still not imply that these statements will have anything to do with the truth. These statements are just would-be prophesies by idiots who think that they are about 1,000 times more important and powerful than they are.

I am sure you don't need to know anything else about this "event". Billions of dollars were wasted for another farce, the CO2 emissions created by these morons are obviously the least of the problems because there exists nothing such as a global problem with the climate, let alone one caused by CO2, and even if there were a problem, the subtraction of carbon dioxide's contribution, at most 0.01-0.02 °C, from the warming per year would clearly do nothing to avoid the problems. Do you really need to move 30,000 morons across the world and store them in hotels for 2 weeks if the only outcome is just another hateful remark about the fossil fuels which is completely detached from reality?

Larry Summers vs inflation deniers

Some media have concluded that Larry Summers has been vindicated and indeed, we can already say that the inflation wasn't "transitory" as way too many Western economists, including those at the Federal Reserve, have been saying for a very long time.

Summers – who explained his success by pointing out that the things are trivial for brilliant brains such as his and the other economists are just way too dumb aßholes (my quote isn't precise) – describes the ongoing inflation as "entrenched". Of course, it may accelerate further.

In the Bloomberg interview above, Summers said that it was easy to see that the inflation would be pretty big. Basic economic models were enough for that. Maybe he wrote it quantitatively but I haven't seen it yet. In reality, I often use my intuition and it is tempting to talk about "models" even though the predictions are pretty much just qualitative in nature. It is hard to make hard-precision predictions, especially at the beginning when it was still possible that there would also be a lasting decrease of the aggregate demand etc.

We face a choice between national sovereignty and European identity

Outgoing Czech Prime Minister's speech at the Core Europe conference: National Sovereignty or European Identity in the Integration of the European Union

On Friday, 12 November 2021, Prime Minister Andrej Babiš spoke via video greeting at the Flagship Europe conference: National Sovereignty or European Identity in the Integration of the European Union. The theme of the conference is the future of strategic autonomy and European federalism in the European Union.



Ladies and gentlemen,

I am delighted to open this conference entitled "Core Europe: National Sovereignty or European Identity?"

The title of your conference suggests that we are clearly faced with a choice between national sovereignty or European identity. However, I believe that this duality is not correct. Membership of the European Union should not present us with such a dilemma, but should, on the contrary, guarantee both. National sovereignty should be the foundation and the concept of European identity the roof of the European Union project. There should be an equal relationship between these two ideas – national sovereignty should support European identity and vice versa.

Can the University of Austin save the U.S. education?

A bunch of well-known public intellectuals, mostly "moderate Democrats", are trying to establish

The University of Austin:
dedicated to the fearless pursuit of truth.

See Google News. So far so good. I know some of the founders well, like Summers and Pinker. Others have been funny, like Boghossian who co-produced all the Sokal-style hoaxes. The description of the problem is clearly correct (although you may easily find psychopaths claiming that there is no problem with the freedom of thought at the U.S. universities today) and the goal is noble. But will the project lead to a fix of the fatal problem with the Academia?