Sunday, July 29, 2007

2007: another weak hurricane season so far

The climate fearmongers were excited during a strong hurricane season of 2005. It was enough for them to merely suggest that global warming could be behind the storms because fear and superstitions are their closest allies. Many people have constructed quasi-scientific, quasi-religious arguments that the number and strength of the tropical storms has been increasing and should be increasing.

Figure 1: The eye of Katrina, 2005

However, the 2006 hurricane season was very weak. It was below the average. Most quantities dropped more than two-fold and the damages decreased by nearly two orders of magnitude from 2005.

What about 2007? We are at the end of July and we have only seen 2 Atlantic tropical storms. Neither of them has been a hurricane. It's less than 3+1 tropical storms (one was unnamed) that have occurred by July 24th, 2006 and of course much less than 7 tropical storms (3 of which were hurricanes, two of which being major hurricanes) that occurred by July 24th, 2005. Klotzbach's team has predicted 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes of Category 3 or higher for 2007. That's the newest June prediction; in April, their numbers were even higher, 17-9-5!

By the end of November when the season officially ends, Nature has to add 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes of Category 3 or higher to match their June predictions and for Klotzbach's team to be right. Good luck: you should better rent a lot of aircraft to fly in circles, Philip. Read "State of Fear" to learn the details. ;-) Also, about 1917 additional hurricanes are needed to realize the predictions of Al Gore. I won't wish good luck to this guy because the irony would be far too obvious.

Relevant links:
2005 Atlantic hurricane season
2006 Atlantic hurricane season
2007 Atlantic hurricane season
National hurricane center
No one seems to be interested in the low number of hurricanes. Only a high number of hurricanes can influence the opinions about the climate held by certain people. That's excusable in the case of ordinary folks who have nothing to do with science; it's not excusable in the case of scientists.

And that's the memo.

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