## Friday, August 03, 2007

### Chaos theory and oceans may determine the climate

A mechanism for major climate shifts

Alexander Ač has reminded me that I forgot our weekly dose of peer-reviewed denier literature on the climate. Here it is. Anastasios Tsonis and his collaborators offer

a new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts (full-text draft of the article, final PDF)
in Geophysical Research Letters. The article, published on July 12th, has a special "editor's highlight". You may also see the abstract in yesterday's ScienceDaily.

The authors focus on the oceans and something that could be called chaos theory - especially the concept of synchronized chaos. What they care about is whether the known ocean cycles - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation - are synchronized or not.

They argue that the synchronization disappears once the coupling between all/most of these cycles gets too high: a major climate shift is a consequence. The amount of synchronization decides about the ENSO variability as well as the global temperature, as they demonstrate by an analysis of major indices in the 20th century. This climate shift may be seen as a bifurcation - branching of one possible solution into two. It is accompanied by changes of the coupling parameter which acts as an external parameter.

If you care, the shifts have occurred or will occur around 1913, 1942, 1978, 2033, 2072.

If you are interested in their predictions, a 0.2 Celsius cooling between 2005 and 2020 should be followed by a 0.3 Celsius warming until 2045 or so and by cooling in the rest of the 21st century. 2100 is seen as more than 0.1 Celsius cooler than 2005. While they admit the possibility that their curves should be superimposed with contributions such as the enhanced greenhouse effect, they have a very different explanation for the climate shift in the late 1970s that has nothing to do with aerosols or greenhouse gases.

Related: an interview with Václav Klaus for Radio Free Europe about the history of communism, the climate, and the radars. Note that on the right side, there is an English video prepared by RFE about the radars in the Brdy hills.
If you thought that the ocean and synchronized chaos was the only paper I could offer you, here are two additional ones:

1. ScienceDaily, Geophysical Research Letters: Camp and Tung, Seattle mathematicians, argue that the maxima of the 11-year cycle of the solar activity are about 0.2 Celsius warmer than the minima and this result is statistically significant. Note that in 5-year intervals, the 0.2 Celsius change is much faster than the trend attributed to global warming.
2. Belgian media inform that the Royal Meteorological Society is preparing a new study to be published in the summer that explains why CO2 cannot be the most important climate driver. Water vapor is responsible for "75 percent" of the climate change. Not sure how this is quantified and what it means.
Via Marc Morano.

England: 85th coldest July ever

In Central England, they have measured the temperatures for 349 years. This table shows that July 2007 was the 85th coldest July in history. Only 24 percent of the Julys were cooler! For comparison, let us look at the previous 11 months:
• August 2006 was the 243rd coldest August,
• May 2007 was the 253th coldest May,
• June 2007 was the 271nd coldest June,
• February 2007 was the 297th coldest February,
• March 2007 was the 311th coldest March,
• December 2006 was the 321st coldest December,
• November 2006 was the 327th coldest November,
• January 2007 was the 345th coldest January,
• October 2006 was the 346th coldest October,
• September 2006 was the 348th coldest i.e. warmest September,
• April 2007 was the 349th coldest i.e. warmest April on record.

In comparison with these numbers between 243 and 349, 85 is really small. July 2007 was a true cassandra of a new ice age. ;-)

Via Bishop Hill.

#### 1 comment:

1. You are right. Oceans are having a major impact on climate change. Oceans are an important element which influence climate.
I found some interesting articles about ocean influence on www.1ocean-1climate.com.
Of course, if we discuss about oceans we have to think about artic warming also.

Recently, there has appeared a new study regarding the arctic warming (www.arctic-warming.com) that may interest you, as it debates the theme and tries to find some answers for the questions regarding climate change periods.

It is very important to focus on the oceans, as every definition we will try to find for the climate, we will get to the point where we will say that "the climate is the continuation of oceans by other means".