Thursday, May 01, 2008

Nature: AMO will stop warming until 2020

In this dose of peer-reviewed literature about the climate, we look into Nature.
Noel Keenlyside et al. (from Kiel, Germany)
wrote an article called "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector." Yes, I mean Kiel where Max Planck was born.

They look at the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influencing the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The Gulf Stream is the part of the MOC along the East Coast of the U.S., mostly driven by Western winds (i.e. directly by the rotation of Earth). Its extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is also supported by thermohaline circulation.

MOC: Warm water flows from the equator to the North and returns at depth in the ocean. The intensity of this circulation depends on the AMO phase. See a detailed picture of Atlantic currents.

The oscillation is a slow quasiperiodic pattern that usually switches into the opposite regime after 60-70 years. It is a slower process than PDO we discussed a few days ago. Because only sea surface temperatures are available for previous decades, they use them to reconstruct the temperatures inside the ocean. The results are incorporated as a new term in their otherwise "conventional" computer model. With this new term, (validation) skill is improved markedly.
Commercial: Prof Roy Spencer: More carbon dioxide, please
Their conclusion? The predictions for a foreseeable future change dramatically. The MOC will weaken to its long-term mean. The Atlantic Ocean, Europe, and America will cool down slightly in the next decade while the Pacific Ocean won't change. In plain English, the AGW hoax may take timeout till 2018.

Their choice of words is a testimony of the political correctness. For example, in Richard Black's article in the BBC, Keenlyside says:
One message from our study is that in the short term, you can see changes in the global mean temperature that you might not expect given the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
If you wonder what this sentence means, it means "Our models, if correct, imply that the IPCC projections for the next 15-20 years are incorrect." Recall the words that are being used when a controversial published article disagrees with a detail of a skeptic's theory: we typically read about one last nail in the coffin of an oil industry stooge. ;-) But when 2,500 hacks are proved wrong in a completely essential aspect of their paper - the projection of temperatures for the whole next decade -, a very different language must be chosen, right?

Even though 1/3 of the people who live today are said to see no more global warming in their lifetime - a problem that is often claimed to be one of the most urgent problems of the current world - and despite the disagreement of their paper with the frantically promoted hysteria about the "settled" catastrophic science, Richard Black writes:
The projection does not come as a surprise to climate scientists, though it may to a public that has perhaps become used to the idea that the rapid temperature rises seen through the 1990s are a permanent phenomenon.
Wow. So the refutation of a prediction of a dangerous warming by the world's top 2,500 scientists ;-) "does not come as a surprise". Note that with no global warming since 1998, the paper predicts 20 years of no warming.

Recall that Al Gore has predicted global destruction in less than 8 years from now. To make you even more certain that scientific papers can have no impact whatsoever on the religious dogmas of the climate debate, Richard Black quotes a Richard Wood from the Hadley Centre:
[Wood] emphasises that even if the Kiel model proves correct, it is not an indication that the longer-term climate projections of the IPCC and many other institutions are wrong.
So a paper showing that a decade of predictions is completely wrong because it has neglected some very important dynamics doesn't even "indicate" that there "might" be something wrong with the projection of the IPCC "and many other institutions" in the long run. Wow. What an amazing [expletive] this Wood is. This is the kind of people who are reviewing articles about climate change to guarantee that "heresies" can't occur. This particular Wood was the reviewer of Keenlyside et al.

The whole validation of all existing climate models is (or should be) mostly based on the data from the previous decades or centuries. If an effect that is argued to be as strong as the greenhouse effect has been neglected while it has the power to change 60-70 years of the temperature dynamics, it implies the existence of a critical flaw in the whole picture. At this moment, no one can really know for sure what will happen with the AMO in 50 years or so. If we add a term whose absolute values is equal to the strength of the greenhouse effect, a term that can exist for 60-70 years, we can get different results for 60-70 years, can't we?

And there might be many other such terms; note that no paper so far has even properly combined the effects of ENSO, PDO, and AMO. Scientists might be ultimately allowed to study these sinful, mostly irrelevant (!!!) terms but they are not allowed to touch the greatness of the holy anthropomorphic God of global warming who is and who must be forever above all of them. ;-)


See also:
Oceans cooling since 2003
Oceans like CO2
Jan 2008: coolest month in a long time
Ocean: carbon sink & Henry's law
Continental drift: history
Oceans & chaos theory
Click at "climate" sticker below to read more articles about the climate.


  1. Dear Mr. Motl,

    I deeply regret to observe that, despite your reporting of the "global cooling to 2015" story, you have failed to make any mention in your blog of Heartland Institute's recent list of scientists who have cast doubts on global warming. Here is a sample of the list, available via :

    ... Rahmstorf, Stefan, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany; Randall, David, A., NASA; Ratto, N., University of Buenos Aires, Argentina; Raymo, Maureen, MIT; Reeh, Niels, Technical University of Denmark; Reynolds, C.P., University of Waikato, New Zealand; Richard, Y., University of Cape Town, S. Africa; Richter, D.K., Ruhr-University, Germany; Rietti-Shati, M., Weizmann Institute, Rehovot, Israel; Rind, David, NASA; Ritz, C., French National Center for Scientific Research; Roberts, Neil, Loughborough University of Technology, UK; Rodrigo, F.S., University of Almerla, Spain; Roth, Kurt, University of Heidelberg, Germany; Rouault, M., University of Bourgogne, France; Ruddiman, William F., University of Virginia; Running, Steven E., University of Montana; Sabade, S.S., Indian Institute of Meteorology; Sagarin, R.D., University of California/Santa Barbara; Salinger, M. J., National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New; Zealand; Sanchez Goni, M.F., University of Bordeaux; Sarnthein, Michael, University of Kiel, Germany; Sass, Louis C., III, Colorado College; Sawada, Michael, University of Ottawa; Saxe, Henrik, Royal Veterinary and Agricultural School of Denmark; Schilman, Bettina, Geological Survey of Israel; Schmidt, Gavin J., University of Virginia; Schmith, Torben, Danish Meteorological Institute; Schoell, Martin, Chevron Petroleum Technology Co.; Schuster, P.F., USGS; Schweingruber, F.H., Swiss Federal Research Institute; Servant, Marie, Orstom, France; Servant-Vildary, Simone, French National Museum of Natural History; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P., Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Shaviv, Nir, Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Shemesh, Aldo, Weizmann Institute, Rehovot, Israel; Shen, Pu Yu, University of Western Ontario; Shindell, Drew T., NASA; Shoji, H., Kitami Institute of Technology, Japan; Showers, William, North Carolina State; Siddoway, Christine, Colorado College; Sidorova, O.V., Sukachev Institute of Forest, Russia; Sigman, Daniel M., Princeton University; Simmons, A.D., University of Leeds; Slingo, Anthony, Hadley Centre, UK; Smith Ronald Lewis, British Antarctic Survey; Smith, Raymond C., University of California/Santa Barbara; Soden, Brian, J., NOAA; Sohlenius, Gunnar, Swedish Royal Institute of Technology; Sonechkin, Dmitry M., Hydrometeorological Research Centre of Russia; Soon, Willie, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Atmospheric Research; Sousa, A., University of Sevilla; Southward, A.J., Marine Biological Association; Spaulding, W. Geoffrey, University of Arizona; Stammerjohn, Sharon, University of California/Santa Barbara; Steffenson, J.P., University of Copenhagen; Stockton, Charles W., University of Arizona; Stone, John, University of Washington; Street-Perrott, Alayne A., Oxford University; Stuiver, Minze, University of Washington; Sturm, Matthew, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research; Sud, Y.C., Goddard Institute; Sugden, David E., University of Edinborough, Scotland; Sun, Weizhen, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Susskind, Joel, Goddard Institute; Sveinbjornsdottir, A.E., University of Iceland; Svenared, O., University of Stockholm; Svensmark, Hendrik, Danish Space Research Institute; Tape, Kenneth, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research; Tappa, Eric, University of South Carolina; Thomas, Chris D., University of Leeds; Thompson, L.G., Ohio State; ...

    As a concerned citizen and defender of freedom and all that it stands for, I have a few questions I need to ask. May I know why you are being silent on the Heartland 500 list, and the oppression from the scientific inquisiton against the academics that are mentioned on the list? Has your good self been intimidated by the forces of the Left into keeping quiet as well? Is your blog now selling out to the freedom-destroying agenda of Al Gore?

    I would appreciate it if you can offer me answers to my humble questions. Thank you.

    -- Frank Bi, International Journal of Inactivism,

  2. Dear zarquon, thanks for your criticism. That's the kind of criticism I enjoy.

    It is great to see RealClimate.ORG's Stefan Rahmstorf on the top of a list that casts doubts on global warming. ;-)

    Otherwise, I've covered Heartland's conference in New York and a similar list of 400-500 skeptical scientists summarized by Sen James Inhofe's office - I am also on that list.

    See Heartland on this blog.

    Thanks for your understanding

  3. "Otherwise, I've covered Heartland's conference in New York and a similar list of 400-500 skeptical scientists summarized by Sen James Inhofe's office - I am also on that list."

    How can I get on that list? I'm not a tenured climatologist, but still ... Any list with Mr Motl on it is an illustrious list!