Sunday, July 13, 2008

Predicting Barack Obama

As various outlets including MSNBC pointed out, Barack Obama is moving to the political center.

According to some criteria, Obama's voting record has been the most liberal one among all U.S. senators (in 2007, and also previously). On the other hand, as far as I remember, he has never made me really upset, unlike most left-wingers who have appeared in the media (or the blogosphere or my real life).

I generally believe that most of the blacks, including the educated ones, don't buy into political correctness - at least when it comes to "sexism" i.e. the rudimentary knowledge about the differences between men and women. And he also has the Christian background.

Recently, he has been moving to the middle. Of course, he is now fighting for a different voter - the U.S. voter rather than the Democratic voter - so this whole approach could be a part of his personal strategy. His highly left-wing voting record could have been a matter of strategy, too, one designed to win the party nomination. The policies he has endorsed lately include

  • intelligence surveillance bill (a compromise)
  • North American Free Trade Agreement (at least softened his anti-trade rhetoric)
  • handguns (he was against a D.C. ban)
  • death penalty for child rape (Obama criticized a high court that opposed it)
And in two weeks, he even wants to follow Ronald Reagan - whom Obama has repeatedly praised - and scream "tear down this wall" in the same place of Berlin. (Too late, Barack, the wall is already gone! By the way, see some Reagan humor.)

When you take all these and other things into account, you may crystallize your own forecasts and participate in the poll below.

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