Friday, October 17, 2008

Cuba adds 1% to world's oil reserves

This is a natural continuation to our discussions about peak oil.

BBC and others report that Cuba claims to have 20 billion barrels of offshore oil. This amount is twice as large as previously indicated. If true, Cuba's reserves will actually match all of the United States. Lucky commie bastards. ;-) The United States should surely try to add the post-Fidel Cuba into the Union.

Recall that the proven world's oil reserves are 1,240 billion barrels so the discovery - or a better geological analysis - increases the reserves by 1%. Because the proven reserves are enough for nearly 50 years of consumption, assuming current consumption, the discovery amounts to 6 months of global consumption.

Another obvious point is that if such an increase of proven reserves by 10+ billion barrels occurs every 6 months in average, the "expected" end of oil reserves will always be more than 40 years in the future. ;-) That's certainly not a far-fetched estimate. Half a year ago, Venezuela added 30 billion barrels to its estimates and Iraq increased them, too.

We are clearly extremely far from the point when we could be reasonably certain that the oil production has "peaked". The people who want the whole national economies bet on "peak oil" are insane gamblers trying to inflate an absolutely crazy bubble.

The economic impact of the discovery on Cuba is also cute. At USD 70 per barrel, 20 billion barrels is USD 1.4 trillion which is nominally something like 30 years of their GDP. Not bad.

Off-topic: elections

For the first time since 1996, I actually voted today. When I was in the U.S., it would have been silly to make all these difficult exercises and try to vote from a distance because it would have been costly (a trip to NYC?) while an equivalent vote of one gipsy was bought by the social democrats for USD 5 or so. ;-)

The Senate choice was a no-brainer. The gynecologist - oops, the spell-checker says that the word doesn't exist: I mean a vagina physician - was an independent on the Civic Democratic ticket that I would normally support. A typical achieved person who should be sitting in the Czech Senate, I think.

For the regional bodies, I also voted for the Civic Democratic ticket led by the mayor of Pilsen. At the end, I abandoned my intent to give preferential votes to individuals because these issues, while somewhat important to me, are infinitesimal in comparison with the fact that most of the people in my district probably vote for the social democrats if not communists.

There were other candidates whom I could potentially vote for. For example, the funny guys from the Czech Crown who want to restore constitutional monarchy. But such options sometimes look like jokes so I went mainstream.

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