Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Nir Shaviv: Solar fluctuations are amplified

In this dose of skeptical peer-reviewed climatological literature, we follow a kind recommendation by Werdna and look to Journal of Geophysical Research, Space Physics. Nir Shaviv wrote an article called
Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing.
By using three independent records linked to the heat in the world's oceans, he deduces that a mostly unknown mechanism amplifies the total radiative forcing connected with 11-year solar cycles by a factor between 5 and 7.
CO2 Science story
In other words, the Sun is much more important for the energy budget than what you would think by looking at the small variations of the total power of our beloved star.


1 comment:

  1. Cloud cover over the Pacific varies significantly during El Nino events.

    In “ENSO Surface Shortwave Radiation Forcing over the Tropical Pacific” (2008), Pavlakis et al illustrated the correlation between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and Downward Shortwave Radiation (visible light) anomaly (DSR-A) at the surface for the Western Pacific (10S–5N, 120–140E).
    http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/6697/2008/acpd-8-6697-2008-print.pdf

    They further explain that the changes in Downward Shortwave Radiation are caused mostly by changes in Cloud Amount. As illustrated in Figure 10, during the 1997/98 El Nino, Downward Shortwave Radiation (black curve) rose almost 25 Watts/meter^2 as a result. During the El Nino events with lower NINO3.4 SST anomalies, the increases in Downward Shortwave Radiation were proportionately lower.
    http://i41.tinypic.com/2435kbb.jpg

    And to put a change of 25Watts/Meter^2 into technical terms, it's a chunk.

    The above is part of my post here:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/02/what-causes-sea-surface-temperature-sst.html

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