Friday, April 03, 2009

RSS MSU: 0.06 °C month-on-month cooling

If you remember a discussion that was posted one month ago, RSS MSU (Remote Sensing Systems, advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) was one of the teams that reported that February 2009 was (0.09 °C) cooler than January 2009, in terms of the global temperature anomaly.



It turns out that March 2009 was even cooler, matching the anomaly from December 2008:
2008/12: 0.172 °C
2009/01: 0.322 °C
2009/02: 0.230 °C
2009/03: 0.172 °C
Two months are enough for 0.15 °C of cooling. Let us see whether our climate realist friends at UAH MSU will continue in their warming trend - and in their divergence away from RSS MSU. :-)

Update: no. As expected, UAH MSU reported cooling, too. But guess how much: 0.14 °C per month!




The mid troposphere cooled by 0.09 °C in one month (RSS). In this layer, the anomaly of the Arctic dropped (cooled) by 1.5 °C in one month!

The cooling appears despite the fact that the recent La Nina conditions are essentially over. During the most recent week, they have been replaced by ENSO-neutral conditions.

In the U.S., 358 low temperature records and 409 snowfall records were broken during the most recent week. New blizzards are expected.



Meanwhile, the Sun remains officially spotless for the 26th day in a row, delaying a sharp beginning of the 24th solar cycle. The Dalton minimum may be repeated, indeed.

The sunspot number behaves much like the Dow Jones index. Just when you think that you have hit the bottom, it goes even lower. ;-)

By the way, the global sea ice area anomaly is actually slightly positive right now. It means that the excess of ice on the Southern Hemisphere, relatively to a typical early April since the late 1970s, exceeds the deficit of ice on the Nothern Hemisphere.

Of course, such facts - and no other facts - can't prevent the champions of climate hysteria from writing about a catastrophically melting ice. The threats and stakes are infinite, after all, and (their) rational thinking breaks down whenever infinities are encountered.

Keep on reading this blog. :-)

Bonus: parameters of solar cycles

You may download this Mathematica notebook or its PDF preview.

It downloads the sun spot numbers from January 1749 to March 2009 (as reformatted by JunkScience.com - very convenient); it divides them to 23 pretty much complete cycles (the zeroth cycle at the beginning is incomplete and the 24th cycle is barely starting now) using a Lumo formula; it calculates the length, average strength, and a Lumo asymmetry of the cycles; and it shows the correlations between these three quantities for a given cycle (and the previous cycle).

Not too surprisingly, the two strongest correlations tell you that a long previous cycle means a weak and delayed (with a positive asymmetry, i.e. the maximum of sun spots is closer to the end) new cycle.

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