Thursday, July 23, 2009

Pacific shift behind 70% of recent warming

In this weekly dose of peer-reviewed denialist literature on the climate, we look into Journal of Geophysical Research. J.D. McLean, C.R. de Freitas, and R.M. Carter, in their
Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature (abstract),
have compared the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA).

By looking at the derivatives of both functions, they argue that the Pacific events are responsible for roughly 70% of the tropospheric temperature changes in the last 30-50 years, a dominant contribution. When we consider the tropical troposphere only, the percentage increases to 81%.

If true, that leaves less than 1/3 of the changes to man-made factors - because there may be additional natural factors, too (volcanoes are the partially isolated factor in their paper). The alleged Pacific cause was extracted from a correlation that included a 6-month lag.

It's very nice but I guess that one should still be very careful about the difference between the correlation and causation. The correlation may still be due to a) accidents and b) common causes behind both correlated quantities.

Via Climate Depot.

Monopsony in climate science

I recommend you a great paper by Joanne Nova, Climate Money (PDF), in which it is explained how the billions for climate science is wasted. If you don't know, monopsony is like a monopoly, but there is one buyer for all the products (instead of one seller). The real testing of the scientific hypotheses is largely left to unpaid volunteers.

Richard Lindzen's new paper

Richard Lindzen has updated his and Yong-Sang Choi's new paper, whose presentation you could have seen already, to appear in Geophysical Research Letters. See the full paper and Anthony Watts' blog. The CO2 climate sensitivity is extracted to be near 0.5 °C which would predict no or negative CO2-related warming by 2100.

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