It seems that the Copenhagen summit is finally over. It ended with a vague, non-binding declaration which almost coincides with the document I posted yesterday morning. Because the document is so unimportant, I don't really think that you have to investigate which words have changed a bit.
Nevertheless, most third-world countries have disagreed even with this modest outcome. So the U.N. will only say it has "taken note of" the declaration but it won't dare to put it to vote because everyone knows it couldn't be adopted by the required consensus (given the fact that e.g. Sudan considers the agreement to be equivalent to the Holocaust).
I think and hope that this Copenhagen failure is the beginning of the end of the AGW hysteria in the realm of politics. The Danish capital was effectively able to cope'n'hang (with) the political ambitions of the AGW champions. The key facts behind the dynamics of the "action against climate change" are not hard to understand.
Outsourcing vs suppressing economy
The third-world countries have only endorsed the Kyoto Protocol because it only brought them advantages but no obligations or expenses. Obviously, they will only endorse a new framework that effectively reproduces the advantages of Kyoto.
Most of the sensible people in the richer countries have understood that the only possible effect of the Kyoto arrangement was that some factories and other economic activity has been moved from them to the third-world countries.
As far as the CO2 emissions go, only the difference between the rich countries' emissions and poor countries' emissions was modestly lowered: some redistribution took place. But to affect the CO2 in the atmosphere - and, by tiny fractions of a Celsius degree, the global mean temperature - you need to lower the sum of the rich and poor emissions. The sum hasn't been affected at all. The sum is completely independent from the difference. ;-)
It seems likely that only agreements that actually suppress the industrial activity in the poor world will be politically acceptable in the rich countries. But this is the most impossible part of the story. While some of the rich countries could afford to build ludicrous and alternative sources of energy instead of the proper ones, the poor countries surely can't afford it.
Delegates carefully listen to the talks.
There are billions of poor people in the world. Feel free to check that you can't buy solar panels to cover all their energy needs for those 100 billion dollars that the poor countries may have been promised (Froogle): the required costs are higher by orders of magnitude. You surely need trillions just for carbon-free sources of energy just for the poor world. And it would still be just an energy source.
This is where the reality has finally entered the negotiations. In the rich countries, it's possible to waste hundreds of billions of dollars and almost no one takes notice. But in poor countries, such things are simply not possible. In the third world, the gigantically absurd wasteful character of the CO2-regulating policies reveals itself in its full nakedness.
Obama's "breakthrough". At least the weather was good. At the end, Barack apologizes he has to leave early because of the snowstorm in D.C. At least they don't have -15 °C like in Pilsen.
Words vs actions
Copenhagen may have been lethal for the AGW hysteria in the political world for another big reason: the train has accelerated enough so that acts were and are being expected instead of the words. Lots of cheap politicians have benefited from empty clichés about the climate change that they have been emitting - and they used to contaminate the political atmosphere - for years. They looked like saviors. It was great because no one would ever verify their pledges.
Absurd words about 50% reductions of the CO2 output can be easily said, and with superficial, cowardly, and gullible enough listeners, you won't even be criticized for having said similar piles of crap.
But the words are no longer enough. The politicians have escalated what is "normal" so intensely that they actually expect these absurd suicidal measures from each other. They have trained the journalists and the laymen to expect them as well. Of course, that can't work.
In fact, when the reality actually arrives, people start to return to their common sense. Much like the numerous expeditions of AGW-brainwashed polar researchers who came to see the North Pole in their swimming suits, expecting a few balmy days due to global warming, and who were nearly frozen to death, the bureaucrats also start to realize the reality when their countries are supposed to pay hundreds of billions of dollars - and it's supposed to be just the beginning because everyone knows that these modest expenses can't make any difference.
France was another very active country.
I don't think it is possible for the nations to agree upon anything substantial. The poor countries will only accept a deal that has no impact on the total emissions and whose only possible result may be a wealth redistribution from the rich world to their countries - that's the dimension of the AGW hysteria that they have liked, for obvious reasons. The rich are the sinners! And the carbon regulation champions in the rich countries actually want to lower the CO2 emissions of all the countries which is clearly lethal and unacceptable, especially for the poor countries that actually need cheap sources of energy.
The fight against climate change in Copenhagen had nothing, but really nothing to do with communism. Right?
The game may be over, political kibitzers and fringe lunatics who have benefited from spreading nonsense about AGW have become sore losers who don't sleep for many nights but who can't ever reach any results. And regardless of the opinions about the potential AGW threat, the media and others are starting to appreciate that all of you are fraudulent and hypocritical kibitzers and losers. Your stocks will plummet and you will feel like pieces of trash. You deserve it because you've been lying all the time - you are pieces of trash, after all.
And that's the memo.