Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Public support for AGW plummets after ClimateGate

The National Post offers some of the newest, December 23rd, 2009 numbers coming from Angus Reid quantifying the belief of the key native English speakers (US, UK, CA) in various parts of the climate change orthodoxy.

First, people are hopeful that no binding treaty will arise from the Copenhagen Accord. Will there be a binding treaty?

USA: 19% Yes vs 37% No
BRI: 16% Yes vs 43% No
U.K.: 12% Yes vs 44% No.

The rest is undecided. The "Yes" percentage is higher among warmists - around 25% vs 10% for the skeptics. The evolution of the scientific opinions about AGW between November 2009 and December 2009 (written as Nov ⇒ Dec) may reveal the fingerprint of ClimateGate although the decline couldn't have been hidden already for several years. Is man-made global warming a fact?

Canada: 63% ⇒ 52%
U.S.: 49% ⇒ 46%
U.K.: 47% ⇒ 43%

In the U.K., the number was 55% in July. In Canada, the average of 52% - the only place where the percentage surpassed 50% - results from figures as high as 61% in Quebec and as low as 38% in Alberta.

At any rate, about 1/5 of the AGW supporters have evaporated in five months. Most of them have disappeared in 1 month: the life expectancy of global warming would be close to a year ;-) if you linearly extrapolated the trend - which doesn't look terribly sustainable. :-)

Interestingly enough, 72% of Great Britain (and 57%-58% of the U.S. and Canada) want to (insanely) reduce CO2 production by 50% before 2020 (note the complete nonsense encoded in the figure) - a much bigger percentage than the percentage of AGW believers!

Most people, especially Britons, have been brainwashed by the media and they clearly have no idea how paramount the fossil fuels have to remain for a decade and probably many decades. In this sense, people may have been taught much more climate science than the facts about the economy and the origin and importance of energy in it. It's surprising that their common sense is not enough to settle such questions.

The ratings of Harper's, Brown's, and Obama's performance in Copenhagen seem to be random, mutually incomparable numbers to me.

Interestingly, 60% people in the U.S. and 75% in the U.K. (and similarly in Canada, where they asked a finer question) think that the temperature changes won't be kept under 2 °C - you know this particular bureaucratic sleight-of-hand - and the percentage doesn't seem to strongly depend on whether the people believe in natural global warming, man-made global warming, or they're generally skeptical.

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