Thursday, August 05, 2010

Study: Arctic cooler in 1989 than in 1870

Off-topic: In The Guardian, John Cook claims that "Our Climate" iPhone app shows that deniers are evil deniers and devils. Do you agree with him? Create a Guardian account and tell him.
The Czech media just informed the nation about another study that rules out the industrial activity as the cause of the bulk of the 20th century climate change.
Warming is not related to the mankind's industrial activity, a study shows (novinky.cz)
That's a pretty clear title, isn't it? ;-)

You may find it even more remarkable if I tell you that novinky.cz is a top left-wing news server on the Czech Internet - with loose institutional links to Právo, the newspapers that used to belong to the Communist Party - and that the story above is the "story of the day" on the server's main page.

Half a day later, the Public Czech TV channel, ČT24, printed an article on the same topic:
German-Russian study: global warming is not a people's fault
I will discuss it at the very end (maybe: later) but let's return to the first article.

If you want to have an idea about the discussion under the article, the most favorably rated comment (Goodvotes - Badvotes = +449 within 20 hours) was written by Mr Martin Poláček. It says: "So at the end, it turns out that our president was right. Who will apologize to him for all the mockery?"




A vast majority of the other comments are anti-AGW, too. The readers point out that the Goreo-Bursík green industrial complex (Bursík is the most famous among the ex-chairmen of the Czech Green Party that was just eliminated from the Parliament) is highly profitable so these folks are unlikely to make a U-turn anytime soon.

Another reader mentions that it's being confirmed that Mr Bursík and his biomass (a nickname for Ms Kateřina Jacques, a vice-chairwoman of the Green Party who didn't know what biomass was on a TV show - she recommended him to burn carrots and conjectured that biomass is always just a gas - and who has produced a baby with Mr Bursík) are ordinary green amateurs. ;-)

The story is based on an article,
Kononov, Friedrich, Böttger: Regional Summer Temperature Reconstruction in the Khibiny Low Mountains (Kola Peninsula, NW Russia) by Means of Tree-ring Width during the Last Four Centuries,
previously mentioned at Climate Audit, Science Centric, and Science Daily. See
Signs of reversal of Arctic cooling in some areas (press release)
A tree-ring reconstruction of the summer temperatures at the Kola peninsula - near Murmansk and the Arctic (Polar) Circle - by a German-Russian team has shown diverse changes of the Arctic temperatures in a recent century or so. The period 1630-1840 has crystallized as a Little Ice Age. The years 1935-1955 turned out to be the warmest ones while the years prior to 1990 were cooler than those around 1870. Warming returned after 1990.



Northern lights as seen from Kola.

The media mention that the results clash against the theories of anthropogenic climate change that hypothesize a significant industrial influence on the climate and that the solar activity seems to be more tightly correlated with the observed Arctic temperatures. The authors summarize this finding in the last sentence of the abstract:
The good coherence of multi-decadal to secular trends of our reconstruction and series of observed solar activity indicate that solar activity may have been one major driving factor of past climate on Kola Peninsula.
Well, it's nice but I think that the readers - and the journalists - overestimate the importance of this single particular scientific article in Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research. The exchange kind of shows that many people are gullible. Still, it's somewhat refreshing when simplified conclusions are also being presented on the "other side". And be sure that the global warming orthodoxy is indefensible among most Czechs.

After all, President Klaus met the new Minister of Environment, Mr Drobil, a few days ago. They agreed about the environmental issues and they plan to discuss the matters on a regular basis.

I would still prefer the situation in which journalists and readers would actually be both able and willing to assign a reasonable degree of importance to any argument and any paper about the climate - and many other things.


Texas vs EPA

But when we talk about the AGW power that is beginning to fail at many places, Texas rejected to comply with the federal EPA demands to include CO2 among pollutants. The Texan officials consider Obama's attempts to regulate CO2 illegal. Via Jaynie, thanks!

8 comments:

  1. Saw this and thought you 've probably seen it already but if you haven't....

    http://www.physorg.com/news200224981.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Lumo for posting this interesting article, I think it helps to highlight how much of the science around global warming has not been done in a very legitimately. It is commonplace that everyone overstates the conclusions that they prefer based on whatever evidence they think they see.

    Zephir, I think the point is that this study is not just comparing two years but comparing trends over several years around these two times. There are many people that claim there is evidence of trends the conclusively point to measurable global warming that is explained best by human factors. This article suggests that there are just as significant trends that are not explained by those factors.

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  3. I thought there were only isolated short term records in 1870. Was this, will this be, published in a peer-reviewed journal

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  4. Dear Rick, all the statements of this paper about the past temperatures were based on reconstructions computed from tree rings.

    The paper has already been published in a peer-reviewed journal called Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research.

    ReplyDelete
  5. oh yes tree rings a very nice artefact
    how many trees...
    400 years of rings ...where
    micloclimatic regions in the north have variations of 9ºF sometimes 12ºF

    everybody and everything is iluminated
    biologists that change into acta geophisica members
    bosonic or bozo's that are true climatologists
    that's nice
    why not ...nobody does a true global analysis in years

    gee...only itsy bitsy small scale ones
    objectivity?
    where?

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  6. a peer-reviewed.... indeed

    not a good peer or pear


    journal called
    ............i need more funds?

    Vol. 42 (2010) and Vol. 43 (2011)
    (U.S. dollars; Agent discount: $10 per subscription)

    Library, Institution U.S.A. Foreign
    Print Only: $255 $275
    Online Only: $235 $235
    Print + Online: $270 $290
    Single Print Issue: $65 $75
    Personal U.S.A. Foreign
    Print Only: $115 $125
    Online Only: $110 $110
    Print + Online: $125 $135

    yep
    peer-reviewed journal
    what kind of peer's?
    with more than a million of physics geophys...klimatsurmpanzers
    geologists bio's agricultural researchers
    doing papers about AGW
    i hate americans LOL AGW
    they achieve simplification everywhere ...RUR
    simplification of procedures also..

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear clicky hacky scribble chap, couldn't you please see your doctor before leaving additional comments on this blog? Thank you a bunch. Luboš

    ReplyDelete
  8. I think he is under the care of one now, as the resident of a mental institution who somehow got his hands on a staff computer

    ReplyDelete