Wednesday, March 09, 2011

Hansen: warming should have been 2-4 °F in the last decade

According to all the datasets except for GISS (and try to guess who is the boss of GISS), the 2001-2010 decade saw a very slight cooling trend.

In 1988, James Hansen gave a testimony in front of the U.S. Congress in which he overestimated the warming trend for the next 20 years by a factor of 5 or so. His graphs were somewhat chaotic. They disagreed with the actual temperature record and some people have disputed that his prediction was this bad.

Well, Steven Goddard found a fascinating newspaper article by Combined Miami News Services that eliminates all doubts.

Click to zoom in

In 1986, James Hansen was already predicting a man-made global warming doomsday, and among lots of other utter nonsense, he comprehensibly articulated the following prediction for the temperature change during the first decade of this century:
Hansen said that the global temperature would rise by 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade (after 2000).
Wow. Today, we know that the actual temperature change (from linear regression) was minus 0.1 Fahrenheit degrees or something of this kind, depending on the dataset. For James Hansen, once again, the trend should have been plus 2-4 °F per decade. That's 20-40 °F per century which is 11-22 °C per century.

No kidding. The exaggeration is at least by a factor of 10 or so.

Everyone who believes in the explanation that James Hansen has become senile has been proved wrong. As a younger man, he was at least as big a psychopath if not a bigger one than what he is now. At least since 1918 or so, Jehovah's Witnesses were much more sensible and careful about the end of the world. Why would a sane person declare that the temperature change will suddenly jump by a factor of 10 or 20?

The article also explicitly predicts a doubling of CO2 to 560 ppm by 2040 (in reality, it will be around 2080) and a warming by 8 degrees by the 2030s. ;-) It's kind of amazing that a self-evident crackpot of this caliber who has been discredited so thoroughly and irreversibly has the chutzpah to show up in the public or even in NASA.

Progress tracker

Some news from the high-tech carbon business: I just learned from Al Gore that the United Nations carbon office has introduced a new great tool for several billion dollars:
Progress Tracker (at the top of the page)
This great invention may look like a calendar - well, a horizontal list of months of the year 2011. But don't be fooled: it also shows the number 21 below February 2011 and the number 28 below March 2011! The most spectacular feature of the new progress tracker is that it also displays the local time not only in New York but even in Bonn and Kyoto.

Imagine: it's the same Kyoto where the famous Kyoto protocol was signed! And billions of people may suddenly watch the local time in this important city that is carefully watching, 24 hours a day, the progress in realizing the Cancún's declarations where the participants have vowed to meet again, at yet another exotic destination.

It's so handy. Thank you for the tip, Al! Too bad that the technology behind the cell phones can't make a similarly fast progress as the high-tech know-how of the U.N. climate experts and Al Gore. Just imagine that the evil capitalists such as Steve Jobs would become able to produce a spectacular Cancún Progress Tracker with the Kyoto Local Time. The world would be a stunning place.

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