Sunday, July 31, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

The Cloud Mystery

Henrik Svensmark on climate change

If you have 53 spare minutes and you haven't seen the 2007 Danish documentary (in English) yet, here it is:

Saturday, July 30, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

HadCRUT3: 30% of stations recorded a cooling trend in their whole history

Update: See also a blog entry analogous to this one but truncated to the 1979-2011 era
In a previous blog entry, I encouraged you to notice that HadCRUT3 has released the (nearly) raw data from their 5,000+ stations.

Temperature trends (in °C/century, in terms of colors) over the whole history as recorded by roughly 5,000 stations included in HadCRUT3. To be discussed below.

The 5,113 files cover the whole world - mostly continents and some islands. I have fully converted the data into a format that is usable and understandable in Mathematica. There are some irregularities, missing longitudes, latitudes, heights of a small fraction of the stations. Some extra entries appear for a very small number of stations and I have classified these anomalies as well.

As Shawn has also noticed, the worst defect is associated with the 863th (out of 5,113) station in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. This one hasn't submitted any data. For many stations, some months (and sometimes whole years) are missing so you get -99 instead. This shouldn't be confused with numbers like -78.9: believe me, stations in Antarctica have recorded average monthly temperatures as low as -78.9 °C. It's not just a minimum experienced for an hour: it's the monthly average.

Clearly, 110 °C of warming would be helpful over there.

HadCRUT3: raw data released

Update on Saturday 6 pm: I have completely digitized the HadCRUT3 zip file to arrays that are verified. There are lots of usually minor inconsistencies and missing entries but surely lots of useful data, too.

For example, below is the map of the stations I have made in a simple way. Does the distribution of the stations resemble something that you have already encountered somewhere? :-)

Ctrl/click to zoom in into a new tab. The map contains 5070 different coordinates of the 5113 stations - some of them had missing longitude and/or latitude (replaced by numbers like -199).

Text below was originally posted on Friday.

Many climate blogs and media have reminded us that the Met Office has released the raw data from the weather stations that the HadCRUT3 dataset is based upon. (This dataset is co-managed by East Anglia University which was the main player of the Climategate.)

I re-learned about the URL from Marko Dumić, thanks!

Met Office: web page with links and explanations

Direct link to the newest key ZIP file

Mathematica *.m file with all the data (by LM)
Command to import the array (30 seconds):
all = <<"path\\filename.m";
The unzipped files/directories have about 32-35 MB; the zipped ones about 8 MB.

I think it's cool and it's likely that I will spend many hours playing with it. Nude Socialist, a center of hardcore alarmism, has made a nice confession while informing about the data:
Climate skeptics, here is the raw data you wanted
Needless to say, the raw data from something like 3,000+ stations [official figure] (the directory seems to have 5,113 files and the same number of numerical IDs [LM's counting], however) is something that only climate skeptics are interested in.

For example, the other "climate scientists" (who are neither Jones nor skeptics) would never ever dare to be interested in the historical local temperature data. That would be a heresy. They may prove "global warming" without any data whatsoever. Just find the appropriate segment in Al Gore's movie or a blog article at Joe Romm's blog. Consensus is immediate. Amen.

The candidness with which they admit that the alarmists are not interested in the observational data is striking. It's pretty clear that they must be proud about their lack of interest in the data.

Barack Obama's addicted to spending

CBS News chose this title - with an extra "Face It" at the beginning - and it is true.

It's true that he has not only borrowed nearly 5 trillion dollars in his first three budgets. We can see it's true because of his way of thinking. His speeches leave no room for doubts that he is only the president of those Americans who live out of debt and social programs and government employees i.e. those who generate no profit (and in an uncontrollably high proportion of cases, nothing good for the society in general). (Plus those who are so ideologically blinded or brainwashed that they defend the same attitudes, despite their own interests and despite the interests of America.)

Friday, July 29, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Greenpeace has paid for a Volkswagen ad

The company thanks

Two days ago, James Delingpole discussed the topic how the environmentalists abuse little children. I agree with his important words but let me look at it from another perspective.

Thursday, July 28, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Main polar bear alarmist put on leave, investigated

Scientific misconduct almost certainly demonstrable

You may have forgotten about it but one of the early stimuli that energized the recent wave of hysteria about the so-called "global warming" was a claimed observation of four dead polar bears floating on the sea after a thunderstorm in September 2004 - exactly when TRF was getting started.

The main relevant articles ultimately appeared in 2005 and 2006:

Potential effects of diminished sea ice on open-water swimming, mortality, and distribution of polar bears during fall in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea (2005)

Observations of mortality associated with extended open-water swimming by polar bears in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea (2006)
The authors of the 2006 article, Charles Monnett (lead author of both articles) and Jeffrey S. Gleason, have de facto claimed that 5/6 of a group of polar bears died in a 16-year period and it's surely due to global warming and it's gonna get worse.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

NASA: astrophysics vs Earth science budget

NASA stands for "The National Aeronautics and Space Administration". You would associate it with astronauts, perhaps pilots, space research, and the Universe. Some young readers may even be ignorant about those things but NASA brought the first men to the Moon and has done lots of other fascinating things.

But look at this graph of funding from Nature:

Between 2011 and 2012, the astrophysics budget is expected to drop from $1.1 to $0.65 billion, i.e. by 40 percent. Astrophysics would become almost as small as heliophysics (physics of the Sun) which keeps its $0.6 billion.

Meanwhile, planetary sciences are proposed to grow by one or a few percent to $1.5 billion and the Earth science should only drop by less than 5 percent to $1.7 billion, preserving its dominant position.

Czech lands face a centennial heat wave

Police guards swimming pools

Original URL (in Czech)
July 25th, '11 - A heat wave reaching 40 °C chased out the citizens of Bohemia as well as Moravia to outdoor swimming pools and rivers. The swimming pools are overcrowded. An unusually high number of people drowned in the rivers. Others have died of a heatstroke or they were killed by lightnings.

Beaches of the Moldau river near Podolí. In the proximity of the river, people had enough energy for sports, too. A photograph from the "Czech World" journal, July '11.

AdS3: gravitational exclusion principle

First, it's the last day of the EPS-HEP 2011 conference in Grenoble. See live stream video here. The final plenary talks combining the continental Higgs boson searches start at 3 pm French Summer Time. See the schedule.
It seems to me that the most interesting hep-th paper today is
The Gravitational Exclusion Principle and Null States in Anti-de Sitter Space
by three bright authors - Alejandra Castro, Thomas Hartman, and Alexander Maloney. In some sense, the paper claims to "derive" the holographic principle!

By the way, on the picture, a boy created a living causal diagrammatic model of a holographic AdS3.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

CERN: CLOUD: Jasper Kirkby's talk in Canada

As far as I remember, this 65-minute talk by Jasper Kirkby that he gave on March 23rd, 2011 at SFU in Vancouver hasn't been embedded on TRF pages yet. Here it is:

Kirkby is the lead scientist in the CERN's CLOUD experiment that was scheduled to release the final papers within a month or so from now but a political intervention could affect the timing as well. He's been focusing on cosmoclimatology for something like a decade.

Klaus: National Press Club Address

The Czech president is a source of some fun in the Australian media. For example, he canceled one of the numerous interviews because he refused to go through a metal detector in the Oz Parliament. :-)

Monday, July 25, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Theory vs phenomenology in the days of experimental reckoning

Exactly twenty years ago, in August 1991, Paul Ginsparg launched the arXiv - which used to be known under the main URL for many years.

The first hep-th paper would be a black hole paper by Horne and Horowitz. However, Paul Ginsparg himself and Sheldon Glashow succeeded in constructing a time machine in 1994, returned to 1986 and submitted the essay Desperately Seeking Superstrings in 1986, five years before Ginsparg created the arXiv and 8 years before Al Gore invented the Internet (1994) and Ginsparg invented the time machine.

Congratulations, Paul (both for the birthday and the time machine)!

The only decent celebration of the arXiv in the mainstream media, as far as I know, was published 10 years ago in the New York Times. Your humble correspondent couldn't avoid some humble memories haha. ;-)

Using the modern terminology, Paul's background is one of a clear and serious theorist. Much like others, he was able to see two loosely separated, partly overlapping - but nevertheless distinct - groups of non-experimenters in high-energy physics.

Breivik's political opinions

The main "intellectual" message of the Norwegian mass killer is "summarized" in this intimidating manifesto:

2083: a European Declaration of Independence (PDF)

Backup links
With its 1,500 pages, it's more modest than the 1905-page manifesto of Mitchell Heisman who committed suicide in Cambridge, Massachusetts. But holy cow: this is quite a piece of text for a young farmer.

The text explains the background of the "European Civil War" that should abolish the existence of cultural Marxists and non-European cultures on the old continent by 2083. Breivik wanted the trial to be public and to explain to the world public why he "had" to do it. But the Norwegian lawyers will try to do their best to silence the mass killer and to close the door which will inevitably create some speculations that they're trying to hide something nontrivial or explosive (although I have no idea what it could be).

He may just need some publicity for his radical anti-Islamist opinions - to loudly read from the freely available PDF file above - so if they silence him, it's not too much a censorship from my point of view.

Sunday, July 24, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Nine days before a possible collision with a debt ceiling

Fox News (I,II) presents a sensible update about the new developments 9 days before a conceivable conflict between the U.S. government and the U.S. debt ceiling.

While there exists no clear glimpse of an agreement between the different groups of lawmakers and politicians at this moment, Obama et al. want to decide about a dozen of future trillions of dollars in 9 days, convince hundreds of lawmakers in two chambers to approve this currently non-existent bill about the debt ceiling as well as details about the future limits on budget imbalances, sign it, and bring it to force. After all, he likes to say

Yes, we can.
But John Boehner, the House Speaker, says it's not physically possible. Well, this is a physics blog so I surely think that Obama should sometimes replace his likable slogan by the less catchy but not less important observation:
Yes, we should always ask whether something is physically possible.
One of the details that separates the Democrats and the Republicans is that the Democrats want to approve the law - well, a law that doesn't exist now - in nine days so that it would instantly tell you all the answers about trillions of dollars at least until 2013. The Republicans defend a two-step approach - in the very limited period of time, they would approve a smaller package and they would have to return to this business in 6 months or a year again.

Why a Higgs boson could also have mass 144 GeV

These have been hugely hectic days in particle physics during which the particle physicists have been drowning in a greater sea of new empirical information than at any 3-day period during the last 35 years, to say the least.

Someone has just observed Higgs at the CMS at CERN's LHC.

Nevertheless, the main result is that the Standard Model works (all new physics without any distinction has been moved above 1 TeV and sometimes several TeV). But the Standard Model's crucial component, the Higgs sector, is only slowly starting to emerge. The mass of the Higgs boson - or masses if there are several Higgs bosons - remains unknown although lots of new data about these things have modified our expectations.

Here is an example of the rapidly changing situation.

Saturday, July 23, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Tevatron+LHC Higgs synthesis: 111-131 GeV

The Higgs mass is more likely than not to be between 110 and 120 GeV

Let me begin with my version of the graph, to be explained at the end.

Now, let's talk about the viXra version first.

Phil Gibbs has digitized the graphs indicating the cross sections and exclusions for the Higgs mass, as presented by the D0, CDF, ATLAS, and CMS Collaborations during the recent two days.

I have gotten a copy of the D0 and CDF numbers and got a similar result in Mathematica as he did even though our methods almost certainly differ. Only on Saturday evening, I could apply my formulae to the combination to the LHC results. But Phil's overall results were surely lovable when I saw them (and my version became even more lovable later haha). See:

Norwegian tragedy

The Norwegian attacks in which over 90+ people were killed had nothing to do with the Muslims. Of course, both attacks on the Labor Party prime minister (who survived) and his soulmates were done by the same guy: it was unthinkable that it would have been a coincidence.

Anders Behring Breivik (32 years, 183 cm, as pure Nordic race as you can get) who lived with his mother and whose only violation of law was related to the traffic (10 years ago) may be classified as a genuine conservative Christian terrorist - something we haven't been used to for quite some time.

Do stratospheric aerosols mask global warming?

In recent months, it has become popular among the climate alarmists to "explain away" the lack of warming in recent 10-15 years.

Aerosols have become their best ally in these efforts. A few weeks ago, we discussed this question:

Did the Chinese coal cause the cooling since 1998?
It was no fluke but an example of a whole new fad. Phys Org, among many others, promoted a new article by Susan Solomon et al.:
NOAA study suggests aerosols might be inhibiting global warming
The article itself is in Science and it's called
The Persistently Variable “Background” Stratospheric Aerosol Layer and Global Climate Change
What they're obsessed by is -0.1 Watts per square meter by which the energy flows may have dropped between 1960 and 1990.

When they evaluate the impact, they decide that the predictions of global warming should be reduced by 1/3 to be more realistic. Fine. It's enough to publish one more paper and reduce the alarmists' prediction by an additional 1/2 and they will be consistent with the observations - and with the climate skeptics.

Friday, July 22, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Using all information from particle collisions

A maximally accurate Bayesian evaluation of hypotheses in particle physics

Experiments in particle physics usually repeat the same collisions - like the 3.5+3.5 TeV proton-proton collisions at the LHC - and study the final state. So far, each major LHC detector has recorded about \( C = \) 100 trillion of such collisions.

For each collision, \( i=1,2,\dots,C \), there are \(N_i\) particles in the final state. Each of the particles carries some 3-momentum \(\vec p_{i,j}\) where \(i\) is the subscript denoting the collision and \( j=1,2,\dots,N_i \) identifies the particle in the final state. The three-dimensional vector knows about the energy and direction (two angles) of each particle in each collision's final state.

On the other hand, we have \( M \) hypotheses \(H_1,H_2,\dots,H_M\) that compete to describe the data. The subscript \(k\) in \(H_k\) may hide the information about qualitatively different quantum field theories but also about its parameters. Let's only consider some of their values. For example, some hypotheses may represent the Standard Model with the Higgs mass between 100 and 300 GeV with a spacing equal to 1 GeV. But there can be many other theories, too.

The fate of the Higgs remains inconclusive

ATLAS' and CMS Higgs', a 350 GeV destructive one, went away once CMS updated their graph

As you can imagine, I have spent hours watching the updated documents on the conference website of EPS-HEP2011. There's a lot of great work but no new physics. And no discovery of a Higgs so far.

See a list of papers with links as summarized by Jay Wacker and viXra blog for the most important papers and graphs from various Higgs talks that were presented today and beyond.

Here is the most important graph so far. It's the combined ATLAS search:

Larry Summers on two as*holes, growth, tech bubbles

I found this 35-minute debate with Larry Summers at Fortune's Brainstorm Tech conference entertaining and thought-provoking.

Shift-click here to play the video: I disabled the embedding.

The Facebook parasites

At the beginning, he has to clarify whether it's true that he treated the Winklevoss twins (who have claimed that they invented Facebook and the idea was stolen) in the way presented in the Social Network movie. So of course, it is true: the movie was accurate in these segments.

It was also accurate when it comes to Larry's complete inability to predict that Facebook as a company could actually become valuable.

He clarifies that as a college president, you learn that if two undergrads wear a suit and tie on Thursday 3 p.m., they're either coming from a job interview or they're assholes. The brothers are an example of the second option. ;-)

Václav Klaus: 20 interviews in Australia

Czech President Václav Klaus has arrived to Australia. The Czech embassy was contacted by a whopping number of 20 outlets - newspapers, TV shows (Andrew Bolt: Klaus will be on TV on Sunday), shock jocks (Klaus will probably visit Alan Jones as well) etc.


So the Czech ambassador had more work and saw more Australian interest in the Czech Republic than during the previous years combined. ;-)

Here is an interview for ABC Perth: click for a 12-minute audio. The host is trying to convince Klaus that there are rational scientists on the alarmist side and Klaus de facto argues that it is probably not the case. In the second half, Klaus explains the difference between the EU and the eurozone (the host apparently thinks that we're members of it) and the fundamental errors in their foundations that he's been pointing out for decades.

Thursday, July 21, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Fermilab: Higgs is probably between 114 and 137 GeV

Two minutes ago, the Fermilab has released a new press release:

Fermilab experiments close in on favored Higgs mass range (

Science Daily, Phys ORG, NewsTV.US
According to some high-precision techniques based both on D0 and CDF data - techniques that are not quite carefully described in the press release but the precise W-boson and top quark mass are the key - the Higgs mass is most likely to be between 114 and 137 GeV.

It is not clear from the press release how much new evidence that this interval is the right one they have actually found.

Grenoble: CDF: a sharp 327 GeV peak in ZZ four leptons

Update: ATLAS at 1.02/fb saw no ZZ events near 325 GeV, among the 12 in general, which - as far as I can see - largely falsifies any theory starting with the assumption that the CDF signal reported below is real. So this is likely to be a third major recent CDF bummer. On the other hand, ATLAS sees 3 high-mass events at 485, 495, and 597 GeV which still looks pretty high.
The Europhysics EPS-HEP2011 conference about particle physics has started in Grenoble, France. It has some potential to become the most groundbreaking experimental physics conference in the last 35 years.

So far, the dozens of available PDF files - posters and transparencies (that I have seen during the day: lots of stuff) - from the LHC (that often seem to use as much as 1 inverse femtobarn of the data) seems to confirm the Standard Model (without a sign of a Higgs so far); see viXra blog for lots of blogging live.

The Standard Model is gradually claiming the sub-1-TeV or sub-few-TeV realm as its domain - which is a bizarre thing to say because its main last key feature, the Higgs sector, hasn't been found yet but (at least) it must exist below 1 TeV, too. This dominance of the Standard Model may change. However, some peaks in the Tevatron and older LHC's papers have already nearly died. For example, the dijet resonance near 3.3 TeV may have gone away. It's sensible to postpone the summary of all the casualties to the end of the conference - it's conceivable that there will be no survivors which will signal a devastating victory of conservative physics. ;-)

The strongest elimination as of Thursday evening is ATLAS' announcement that it sees no signs of SUSY - such as a sub-TeV gluino - in their 1/fb of data. See also newest Tevatron on SUSY (SM works).

EU subsidizes private jets for everyone

PC World and many others bring us some great news about the future methods of transportation.

Cars have become obsolete and they consume too much energy. So the EU has started an official EU project

MyCopter.EU: Enabling Technologies for Personal Aerial Transportation Systems.
The purpose of the project is to reduce the transportation by cars and the traffic jams on the roads and to transform every European citizen, especially the women, children, minorities, and the elderly, to pilots of personal helicopters. The gadgets will cost $250,000 - it's a small price for many TRF readers - and they are pretty:

Wednesday, July 20, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Romm: Murdoch hacked UEA

His News Corp launched Climategate

Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit has been writing about the links between the University of East Anglia and the recently arrested Neil Wallis, a former editor of the now-abolished "News of the World", a journal of Rupert Murdoch that's been listening to telephone calls of lots of people:

“Covert” Operations by East Anglia’s CRU (CA)

East Anglia’s Toxic Reputation Manager
Of course, the link is a little bit indirect: after the Climategate, University of East Anglia hired the "reputation managers" around Neil Wallis - currently arrested - but very many celebrities, parties, and other people have done the same thing.

IMO 2011: a solution to Q5

Your time is over. You only had 4 hours 30 minutes for the 3 problems of the second day. The TRF problem was this one:

Q5: Let \(f\) be a function from the set of integers to the set of positive integers. Suppose that, for any two integers \(m\) and \(n\), the difference \(f(m)-f(n)\) is divisible by \(f(m-n)\). Prove that, for all integers \(m\) and \(n\) with \(f(m)\leq f(n)\), the number \(f(n)\) is divisible by \(f(m)\).

Spoilers: solution

Let's just look at the last sentence what we should prove. The values of \(f(m)\) are positive (i.e. also nonzero: see the first sentence in the formulation of the problem!) integers. We should prove that for any two allowed values of \(f(m),f(n)\), the greater one among the two is a multiple of the smaller one.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

International Math Olympiad 2011

When I participated at IMO 1992 in Moscow, people were laughing that our year was so unlucky to have Moscow - but I am actually happy it was Moscow.

This year, kids compete in Amsterdam which I visited in 1997 and 2002, to make you start to think about functions with period 5 which you will actually find helpful momentarily. ;-)

Terence Tao will probably ask his readers to solve the most difficult problem, Q6. Phil Gibbs is modest so he chose Q1, maybe the easiest one.

As you know, I am even more modest, so let's start with a special problem for Miss USA participants of the IMO 2011:

Larry Summers: U.S. default would make Lehman look like a baby truck

Although many people have some idea, I consider the opinions of Lawrence Summers concerning the state of the U.S. economy to be more relevant than the opinion of others - at least those in the Democrat Party.

In the video above, he says that the daddy truck - the U.S. government - was carrying a baby truck - Lehman Brothers. So the U.S. default would make the demise of the Lehman brothers look like a rather small event.

It's likely - just compare the size of the two toy trucks - but given the probable temporary character of the crisis, it's not guaranteed. Moreover, I find it very important to stress that the decision not to raise the debt ceiling doesn not imply default. There's lots of money within the ceiling to pay the interest etc. which should almost certainly be a priority if some money would have to be slashed.

In a continuation of the video above, he talks about the deficit. He praises the second black president among those who were his bosses for his will to make a compromise.

Daily Kos: a good article on imminent Higgs developments

The Daily Kos, a far left-wing U.S. community website, has been often mentioned on this blog but I guess that this is the first time when it happens in a positive way. (Well, it's actually the second time.)

A writer nicknamed "Science" has written an article about the expected imminent key findings about the Higgs sector later this week

Higgs Boson Announcement Coming Soon
and I happen to think that the article is good.

TRF beats Al Gore's megaproject

If you forgot about the name, Al Gore is a former U.S. vice-president and the de facto leader of the world's global warming alarmist movement. He remains at large; he hasn't even been forced to return the Nobel Prize yet.

One week ago, on July 12th, he has launched his new Climate Reality Project: he and the whole world he apparently possesses will try to live in the reality chosen by Gore himself for a whopping 24 hours - on September 14th.

The center of the new project is Al Gore's new server which starts with yet another doomsday countdown. This is where the devout fans will be allowed to watch their Master live - next to a dying polar bear and a melting glacier - on September 14th.

There's only one problem. You may see that on July 12th when lots of media praised the man for his amazing new stunt, inviting the whole world to join, his project actually beat The Reference Frame by a factor of six. However, on July 16th, this blog was ahead of Gore's megaproject again - by a factor of six. And on July 17th, Gore was de facto back to zero.

Monday, July 18, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

CERN boss: I forbade employees to interpret our climate experiment

Political pressure on scientific research even at CERN began to resemble the undemocratic regimes of the past

Veteran science journalist Nigel Calder has found an incredible interview with Rolf-Dieter Heuer, the boss of CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, in "Die Welt" (see also The Register, Ace Mu Nu, dozens of blogs):

Wie "Illuminati" den Cern-Forschern geholfen hat (German)

How did "Angels" helped the CERN researchers (autom. transl.)
Heuer is also asked about the CLOUD experiment (TRF) that will release its results on its simulation of the formation of clouds by the cosmic rays momentarily.

Galactic elementary particles - cosmic rays (the left picture is our Galaxy) - may help to produce the condensation seeds of water droplets and therefore clouds in the atmosphere (the right picture), much like in the case of the lines left by an ionizing particle in a cloud chamber (middle picture). A more active Sun - which is what we observed in recent decades - may also help to magnetically shield the Earth from the cosmic rays. A smaller number of cosmic rays could mean a lower cloud cover and therefore higher temperatures.

His answer contains these shocking sentences:
I have asked the colleagues to present the results clearly, but not to interpret them. That would go immediately into the highly political arena of the climate change debate. One has to make clear that cosmic radiation is only one of many parameters.
In reality, the relevance of the experiment for the fashionable debate about the "global climate change" is the only sensible justification of the investment of 9+ million euros by CERN whose job is something completely different than atmospheric science. CERN is Europe's - and arguably world's - top place to study elementary particles and is primarily running the LHC collider.

CMS: a near 3-sigma excess of 390 GeV 3-jet RPV-gluino-like signal

Many 3-sigma deviations have been reported, especially by the Tevatron, and especially by its CDF, and most of us mostly ignore them. CDF in particular has recently produced many claims that seem to be rubbish.

However, this new paper:

Search for Three-Jet Resonances in pp Collisions at \(\sqrt s = 7\) TeV
is special because it shows an excess at the LHC after 35/pb of the data collected by the CMS detector.

Click to zoom in.

Let me explain the graph.

Sunday, July 17, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Why is the Earth so fat?

From Physics Stack Exchange: click for more answers, details, and discussions
Mark Eichenlaub: I made a naive calculation of the height of Earth's equatorial bulge and found that it should be about 10 km. The true height is about 20 km. My question is: why is there this discrepancy?

Don't be too scared: global warming hasn't melted the Earth yet. The picture is exaggerated.

The calculation I did was to imagine placing a ball down on the spinning Earth. Wherever I place it, it shouldn't move.

Climate soothers begin to show their teeth

In the recent years, we have witnessed hundreds of attacks against the dignity and sometimes physical safety of the climate skeptics. Death threats; tattooing; fired climatologists; Nuremberg trials; No Pressure 10:10 and detonating skeptical children; and constant demonization in the media and the alarmist blogosphere, among many other physical examples.

The ClimateGate has shown that the researchers around the University of East Anglia have been doing a part of the dirty work, too.

Even though the percentage of people in the public who have believed the legend about a dangerous climate change wasn't too much higher than 50%, if it were ever higher than 50% at all, the amount of threats, bullying, harassment, and intimidation against the skeptics was overwhelmingly larger than the number going in the opposite direction.

Carbon indulgences: AUD 23 per ton

Is the number relevant for anything?

Australian officials decided about the magnitude of their carbon tax. As Google News sources indicate, it is 23 Australian dollars which is about 24 U.S. dollars per ton of CO2. So far it's the highest price ever imposed on carbon indulgences.

Of course, while this fee is outrageous as a matter of principle, this tax is still too small to make any difference in the emission of CO2 - a pretty much similar price of carbon indulgences in Europe hasn't made any difference, either. I am not even going to talk about the impact on the climate because only lunatics believe that such policies may have a detectable and provable impact on the climate.

Saturday, July 16, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Deadly New York heat wave kills 50 people a day

Via Týden (The Week), a Czech daily. Translation by LM. Autom. translation


July 15th, '11: The New World has been hit by a modern counterpart of the plague of Egypt in the form of a deadly heat wave. This phenomenon ultimately poured over to Europe as well and it began to plunder the Czech lands, too.

In the wake of the tropical weather, the New York City has been completely crippled.

The New World was struck by a new-age plague of Egypt. "The commercial activities have largely come to a halt. The thermometer is climbing to breathtaking heights. Some people are grovelling on the shadowy side of the sidewalks and one can't find any humans on the squares. Who doesn't have to, doesn't leave his house and is looking for the coldest places of the buildings and their basements," the situation in New York was presented in the Saturday issue of the Czech daily called "National Politics" (Národní politika) from July 15th, '11.

Next week, a big Higgs secret may be unmasked

On Thursday, July 21nd, the European Physical Society's (EPS) conference on high-energy physics (HEP), EPS-HEP2011, is getting started in Grenoble, Southeastern France.

Chances are higher than one year ago that we will be told something truly new, truly spectacular. Phil Gibbs has described his excited expectations, too. He even believes that the arXiv will be so overflooded by papers that physicists will start to send lots of papers to viXra, too. Well, I am not sure that it will be this big a game-changed but I do share his expectations that the conference will be a game-changer.

Friday, July 15, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

The stationarity fallacy

I just met my new personal banker in LBBW, a German-owned Czech bank, and he looked like a rather competent investor and adviser relatively to many others.

Just to entertain some of the multi-millionaire TRF readers, the interesting discussion included an offer to have a regular checking account where I would save a whopping monthly $3 fee relatively to some other accounts where people are forced to pay this insanely huge fee. ;-)

Well, we have had some more general discussion about the LBBW products, the markets etc. Your humble correspondent is just a theorist. ;-) And the guy also reminded me that a deposit product has just matured. It's only interesting because it was previously discussed on this blog, I made a prediction, and we can now evaluate the prediction - which is an important feedback that most people who predict things usually avoid.

(That's why almost no one notices that most predictions about complex systems that "experts" do, especially the self-confident ones, are wrong.)

One year ago, I wrote about

betting on the stability of currency exchange rates

Thursday, July 14, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Obama has failed as a manager

In February 2010, the U.S. debt ceiling - the maximum number of dollars that the U.S. government is allowed to borrow (in the form of the treasuries, i.e. the U.S. bonds, held by China, Japan, and many others) was raised from $12.394 trillion to $14.294 trillion.

Note that one digit was raised by two but another one was lowered by one - so the change is almost zero. ;-) Just to be sure, a trillion is \( 10^{12} \): it has twelve zeros.

Well, the increase was actually 15%. The new figure is almost exactly 100 percent of the U.S. GDP. This huge increase was justified as a tool to deal with the recession. Well, the global recession had been clearly over in February 2010 so the debt shouldn't have been increasing at all.

Instead, 17 months later, President Obama is playing childish blackmailing games, expecting the debt ceiling to be automatically increased again - maybe by another 15%? Well, I am actually not exaggerating - I am underselling: a 17% or $2.4 trillion increase of the debt ceiling may be needed for the U.S. government to operate under business-as-usual by the end of 2012 (when the Mayan end of the world comes, anyway).

I assure you that if you increase the debt ceiling by 1% every month, you need about 4 years to get to the same situation as Greece - the situation of a nearly inevitable default and long-term insolvency. As the interest rates will be increasing, the situation will be getting worse increasingly quickly.

Given the genuinely high risk that Obama will be re-elected in 2012, this could mean a high probability of the end of the United States as we know it by 2016.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Regularization and renormalization

Eighty years ago, people encountered the first divergences - infinities - in the calculations based on quantum field theory: I chose Julian Schwinger as the top representative of these developments. It was a somewhat technical development but in some sense, it was as big a revolution and a source of new puzzles as relativity or quantum mechanics themselves.

Albert Einstein was a pioneer of relativity and has actually made major contributions to early quantum mechanics, too. (And he also encouraged people to think about entanglement etc.) However, he didn't really accept quantum mechanics because he has never understood it. Paul Dirac, a big shot from a newer generation, understood relativity as well as quantum mechanics (he was a major co-father of it) but he has never accepted renormalization. Of course, this theme gets repeated all the time. Richard Feynman was a big shot guy from another younger generation who understood and accepted relativity, quantum mechanics as well as renormalization but he was already too old to understand and accept string theory.

I want to discuss the divergences and renormalization in quantum field theory in some detail.

EU, tax, official languages, and bureaucracy

Your humble correspondent had another amazing bureaucratic day today. I was so jealous that the Spanish bureaucrats were so fast and efficient and could give the blondie her stamp so relatively quickly and without much hassle.

I received a letter from a French publisher than my royalties for 2010 - from my French book, "L'Equation Bogdanov", published in 2008 - were ready. It's not a new book so let's say that the relevant royalties for 2010 are of order hundreds of euros. However, I have to send them an affidavit of residence to avoid a withholding tax. France is a socialist country so this tax is huge - 33%. The corresponding rate is just 15% in post-socialist Czechia.

Al Gore will choose his reality on September 14th

See also: What Al Gore has (not) learned from No Pressure (a newer blog entry on Climate Parody Day)

See also: Gore effect on Climate Reality Day (newest information on the weather)
In 2008, Al Gore misappropriated 300 million dollars in an attempt to brainwash the population and spread his delusions about a "climate crisis". He has paid lots of people - including corrupt politicians such as Nancy Pelosi and Newt Gingrich - to act as pimps and say any nonsense Gore wanted them to say.

He has also established an al-Climate training camp and trained 2,000 little Al Gores who have memorized his 2005 PowerPoint presentation which is a sequence of emotional outbursts and scientific misconceptions and misinformation. Imagine: two thousand self-evidently brainwashed (and openly confessed) hired guns who can only say the same rubbish as Al Gore and moreover, they're less (in)famous than Al Gore. That's not exactly a way to change the world.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Testing Mathjax

I want to ask all users who suddenly find this blog annoyingly slow because of Mathjax to complain in the comments here. If the number of complaints will exceed a certain threshold, I will disable Mathjax again. You see, the Mathjax javascript support is loading in the grey rectangles in the lower left corner...

Mathjax is the seventh web system for LaTeX I am testing on this blog. TeX - by Donald Knuth - or LaTeX - with some help from Leslie Lamport - is the experts' standard to write mathematical expressions and formulae - and texts with lots of formulae. Most papers at are originally written in TeX or LaTeX.

We clearly cannot afford to reserve $...$ for the inline mathematics because this blog is full of the dollar signs which usually denote the U.S. currency. However, we may be getting ready for the default of the U.S. government so if you fairly replace one dollar by three dollars, things will be fine. For example, $$$ E=mc^2 $$$ will appear as $$$ E=mc^2 $$$.

Alternatively, you may use \( x^2+y^2=r^2 \) to type in-line maths, \( x^2 + y^2 = r^2 \).

Why is the sum of integers equal to -1/12

Older blog post: This text is a loose continuation of the 2007 essay on Zeta function regularization
The answer is copied from Math Stackexchange

Dear perplexed, there are many ways to see that your result is the right one. What does it mean the right one?

It means that whenever such a sum appears anywhere in physics - I explicitly emphasize that not just in string theory, also in experimentally doable measurements of the [Casimir force][1] (between parallel metals resulting from quantized standing electromagnetic waves in between) - and one knows that the result is finite, the only possible finite part of the result that may be consistent with other symmetries of the problem (and that is actually confirmed experimentally whenever it is possible) is equal to $$$-1/12$$$.

Monday, July 11, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

AdS/CFT amplitudes are crisp in Mellin space

I urge all advanced theorists who happen to be reading TRF to study the following two new hep-th papers on AdS/CFT in the Mellin variables:

A Natural Language for AdS/CFT Correlators by Fitzpatrick, Kaplan, Penedones, Raju, and Rees

Towards Feynman rules for Mellin amplitudes in AdS/CFT by Paulos
Robert Hjalmar Mellin (1854-1933) was a Finnish (anti-Swedish) nationalist, an early crackpot who criticized the theory of relativity by his own philosophical babbling, and the author of his not too famous Mellin transform.

Because the transform is related to the Laplace transform, it wasn't terribly important. However, the name of Mellin will probably start to be used frequently by the world's top theoretical physicists from today on. That's because of the two papers above which are building on this 2009 paper with this very simple and concise title:
D-independent representation of Conformal Field Theories in D dimensions via transformation to auxiliary Dual Resonance Models. Scalar amplitudes by Gerhard Mack

Saturday, July 09, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Climate "scientists": 95 percent of people fry to death at 20 °C

The Sydney Morning Herald has discussed what happens when the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C:

Too hot to handle: can we afford a 4-degree rise?
Kevin Anderson, a director of a Tyndall Centre somewhere in the U.K., sees it in this way:
If you have got a population of 9 billion by 2050 and you hit 4 degrees, 5 degrees or 6 degrees, you might have half a billion people surviving.
So the population will happily continue to rise to 9 billion by 2050. Suddenly, the global mean temperature will apparently jump from 15 °C to 20 °C, we're told, and 8.5 billion people will suddenly die because 20 °C is surely deadly.

I wonder whether those loons actively realize what they are saying - and what their colleagues are saying - and whether at least some of them know that the likes of Mr Anderson are mentally ill. You see that the U.K. doesn't have any counterpart of the ObamaCare if they can't afford to store Mr Anderson in a psychiatric asylum.

CMS after 0.9/fb: Higgs preferred at 115, 140, 205 GeV

A yesterday's seminar about the latest CMS Higgs results probably should have stayed obscure. However, it has penetrated through Phil Gibbs' blog all the way to The Reference Frame, so here is the key graph:

Shift-click the picture to zoom in in another window.

In total, 0.9 inverse femtobarns of data were looked for the decay of the Higgs to ZZ. For lower Higgs masses, other decay channels are preferred but only 0.2/fb of them were included. The graph above shows you the outcome of a combination of all these sources.

Large black holes have a nearly continuous spectrum

Gia Dvali, Cesar Gomez, and Slava Mukhanov are clever chaps but their newest paper,

Black hole masses is quantized
is just silly. A similar team was promoting classicalons that cannot exist. When I was reading those articles by these authors, articles that try to say that quantum gravity is nothing special and one may have lots of states behaving similarly to black holes even without gravity, I was sure that what they must be misunderstanding is gravity itself.

The newest paper has proved this point explicitly.

Friday, July 08, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

CERN: open source hardware movement

ArsTechnica informs about a new initiative at CERN. Everyone knows open source software production. Linux and similar systems are full of it.

Atlantis has been launched: will terminate the space shuttle era

The last launch of a space shuttle will take place today after 5 p.m. Prague Summer Time.

Thursday, July 07, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

ZX Spectrum: Higgs boson at the LHC

Mark Zuckerberg introduced a video chat in Facebook, being convinced that people want to video chat.

Chris Mooney defends growth, becomes a heretic

Chris Mooney has always been a kind of opportunist who figured out that it was possible to make profit out of spreading the environmentalist delusions - but he has arguably never believed them. If he were a politician, he would be the ultimate insider in Washington D.C.

Such a position has worked for years but it no longer works. Environemtalism and its most radical reincarnation, global warming alarmism, is gradually regaining the status of a fringe movement promoted by the lunatics. Mooney has clearly not noticed the difference yet.

In a recent article,

In the Climate Debate, The Misunderstanding Is Mutual (Mooney's article plus fiery debate),
he has complained about a panel discussion at the Sixth Heartland Climate Conference. Around 57:00, panelists Marc Morano, Chris Horner, and Alan Carlin (no, it's not Noam Chomsky) confirm the suggestions from the audience that the primary driver behind the climate movement is an attempt to reorganize the society, a new green version of socialism or communism or anti-capitalism.

Wednesday, July 06, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Should America raise the debt ceiling?

Jon Stewart answered the question in the simplest possible way: he looked into the two future parallel worlds according to Everett's Many-Worlds Interpretation where the debt ceiling was either raised or not:

Via A.A.

I was wrong: DjVu may have created all Obama certificate anomalies

During the most recent 24 hours, I spent a few hours by looking for some additional anomalies in the long form Obama certificate. And I have spent a very similar amount of time by trying to look for alternative explanations - i.e. methods to create a multi-layered PDF file with similar bizarre properties that have been observed in the official PDF file.

See my previous dramatic article about this issue.

And I think that both lines of "research" have been successful. While I have found many new anomalies in the PDF file, I have also found a possible answer - something that may actually be the only possible answer. It's called DjVu. Let me credit a Russian guy on YouTube with the original discovery of the DjVu explanation: he has posted his video more than 2 months ago but it still only has 150 views - a very small number given the controversial character of the PDF file.

Did Chinese coal cause the cooling since 1998?

BBC and others celebrate a great new paper in PNAS that claims to finally explain why there hasn't been any warming in the last decade or so.

How did the research start?

China is considered by Al Gore to be the world's leader in the improvements of the environment. He screamed WOW when he looked at the new "astonishing" 5-year plan of their communist party. They made him piss in his pants and he dreams about the United States that are controlled by these comrades, too.

A Robert Kauffman of Boston University was listening to Fox News and an older Gentleman - a viewer - asked why there hasn't been any warming in the last decade. For Kauffman, that was a shocking insight. You know, Kauffman is a part of the climate research community that has swallowed 50+ billions of dollars in a decade but he needed an old viewer of Fox News to learn about the absence of warming in recent ten years!

Tuesday, July 05, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Obama's long form birth certificate may have been a forgery

Update on Wednesday: democracy in America may still be operational. A Hawaii court has ordered a new investigation into the certificategate and asks the Hawaii Department of Health to produce the original copy of the birth certificate: a subpoena.

Update: The best alternative explanation to forgery I have heard of is that the file used to be a DjVU file at some point. See a description of DjVU compression that could explain many things. I reproduced most the anomalies via DjVU encoders: see a new article about Obama and DjVu. Meanwhile, here is a high-res JPG picture of the certificate (without the green junk):

Shift-click to zoom in.

I used to be a lukewarm birther but when Obama's folks released the

long form birth certificate (key PDF for this article),

White House April 2011 press conference (announcing the PDF file)
I lost most of my interest. The birthers gradually began to resemble those who doubted moonlanding. Well, the analogy surely wasn't that perfect but I did decide to wait for another good reason to doubt that Obama's Hawaii birth certificates are legitimate.

Click to zoom in: a hugely magnified long form birth certificate. Aren't some letters missing? Did they ever fit together with the letters above? That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Details will be discussed below.

Well, the surprising event came today. I received a Tea Party Telegram by e-mail that claimed to have new evidence that the certificate is forger. I thought: well, it's some kind of conspiracy rubbish again. However, they claimed to have an analysis by Mara Zebest, a photoshop expert with quite some experience:
YouTube: Zebest's 3-minute introduction
YouTube: Zebest's 43-minute discussion
Zebest's written final draft

Mark Lynas: how far the new wisdom of ex-green fanatics may go?

I have also been pleased by climate activist Mark Lynas' article in the Daily Mail:

You mustn't believe the lies of the Green zealots. And I should know - I was one
Well, I surely agree with both points in the title - you mustn't believe the lies of the Green zealots; and Mark Lynas should know because he was one of them.

However, I am not sure about another statement that can be found in between the lines of the title, namely that Mark Lynas is no longer a green zealot. ;-)

Sunday, July 03, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Jeff Harvey: summary of Strings 2011

Strings 2011 in Uppsala, Sweden is over. Here are the videos sorted according to the speaker.

I decided to embed the summary talk by Jeff Harvey - a co-father of heterotic strings, orbifolds, and assorted solitons and instantons in string theory and elsewhere - because it's fun and comprehensible to semi-experts such as many TRF readers:

Saturday, July 02, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

INTEGRAL / IBIS: Lorentz symmetry at the Planck scale holds at 1 part per 100 trillion

Bob has pointed out the following June 2011 preprint:

Constraints on Lorentz Invariance Violation using INTEGRAL/IBIS observations of GRB041219A
They used IBIS, the imager on board of the INTEGRAL satellite, to look at gamma ray bursts in the Crab Nebula. The most relevant gamma ray burst allowed them to improve a certain upper bound on the Lorentz violation at the Planck scale by 4 orders of magnitude.

Petra Kvitová wins her first Wimbledon

Czech tennis player Ms Petra Kvitová (21) didn't care that Mr Maria Sharapova (24) was more experienced, richer, taller (Petra's 6 feet is 2 inches too little!), prettier - or, let's say, even prettier :-) - born in a larger country, and emitting annoying sounds all the time.

When it comes to the last complication, it wasn't too much of a problem for Kvitová because in the previous match, she had to defeat Ms Victoria Azarenka of Belarus whose sounds are almost identical to Sharapova's ones. :-)

Swedish monetary policy: a success

Nominal GDP targeting seems clever

Sweden is one of the EU countries that didn't enter the eurozone and it's arguably the most healthy country when it comes to the recovery from the recent recession. Sweden would be led by the socialists for decades which didn't destroy the Scandinavia country for many reasons (although their crisis in the early 1990s wasn't too nice). The private sector was kept very strong and the Swedes are just hardened enough people.

However, in the recent years, Sweden has been led by the center-right "moderate" party and there are other reasons why Sweden's economy got even better.

Friday, July 01, 2011 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

IBM: phase-change memory, PCM

Phys Org (and those who follow them) informs about a new breakthrough of IBM that could lead to a two-order-of-magnitude improvement of flash-like memories. The technical paper is here:

Drift-tolerant multilevel phase-change memory (PDF)
The first author is Papandreou - clearly a chap from a family that brought Greece to the edge of bankruptcy and that is now trying to save it or at least delay its death by a year. How are the bits stored?

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