The top 15 ranking of the years 1979-2011 according to the average temperature during the first seven months is as follows:
- 1998: 0.652
- 2010: 0.545
- 2002: 0.373
- 2005: 0.356
- 2007: 0.310
- 2003: 0.295
- 2004: 0.230
- 2006: 0.206
- 2001: 0.195
- 2009: 0.168
- 1991: 0.163
- 2011: 0.138
- 1995: 0.134
- 1988: 0.121
- 1983: 0.118
Some warming may have been taking place in recent months - because of the delayed effect of the disappearing La Nina a few months ago.
Right now, the ENSO oscillations are finding themselves in ENSO neutral conditions. However, the latest weekly ENSO report says that the ONI 3.4 anomaly is at -0.4 °C - it went down again and is approaching -0.5 °C, the boundary of the La Nina conditions, again.
Also, their models show that there are equal odds that we will see continuing neutral conditions in the Fall - or that we will see another La Nina episode. In fact, the picture from Thursday shows a nice blue spot near the South American Western beaches:
I think that the blue spot sits at an important place - and is already big enough - and could help to decide that La Nina conditions will return. Just to be sure, that would be the second consecutive La Nina episode.
Whatever will happen to ENSO in the Fall, I think that it will only substantially influence the global temperatures in 2012. In the rest of 2011, we will almost certainly see higher temperature anomalies than in the first half of 2011. That will mean that 2011 will jump from the 12th warmest place (preliminary ranking) to a spot in the top ten - but surely not at the medal places.
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