Monday, April 02, 2012

La Niña conditions are over

According to the newest weekly ENSO report, the Niño region 3.4 anomaly increased to –0.2 °C, closer to zero. It's the first time since Summer 2011 when the value is strictly above the –0.5 °C threshold below which we live in the La Niña conditions, by definition.

The 2011-2012 was the second La Niña in a row after the 2010-2011 La Niña. However, the recent one was much weaker. You see that the Pacific equatorial region near South American beaches is already warmer-than-average which, in my opinion, makes the arrival of ENSO-neutral and/or El Niño conditions more likely.

While the demise of the La Niña has a warming effect on the globe, one may expect something like half a year of a delay. So most of the year could still be comparably cold as the year 2011.

The apparent "Pacific warming" hasn't affected the poles yet. In fact, according to The Cryosphere Today, the total amount of sea ice on the Earth is above the 1979-2008 average, their "normal", as the negative anomaly –0.142 million square kilometers in the Northern Hemisphere is overcompensated by +0.406 square kilometeres in the Southern Hemisphere.

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