Tuesday, January 07, 2014

Cold weather: comments welcome

In previous days, we in Central Europe have experienced near-freezing (0 °C, 32 °F) temperatures with a very small amount of snow. Things improved today: we enjoyed an almost sunny day with temperatures reaching almost 10 °C, 50 °F. Slightly more than 1/2 of the TRF readers are located in the U.S. (which I still consider the leader of the civilization, greetings). North America has suffered a weather that is almost a mirror image of what we have in Europe.

The purple color feels chilly; it is near 0 °F.

One may perhaps blame this asymmetric fate on the counterclockwise winds in the Northern Atlantic. It no longer looks like a vortex but it's clear that the winds are mostly coming from the South to Europe – but mostly from the North to the Northeast and Midwest of the U.S.

The current temperatures in Boston are slightly above 0 °F, i.e. –18 °C. The webcam looking at the Harvard physics department where I have worked for 6 years looks normal to me, however. Some places near the Great Lakes etc. are getting up to 70 inches, or 175 cm, of snow.

The polar bears in a Chicago zoo decided that the United States are too cold for them; the conditions would be even worse, by 0.0001 °C, if the U.S. had closed the economy as demanded by the climate radicals a few years ago. The bears have demanded some extra time inside and the managers of the zoo have surrendered the pressure from the polar bears' labor unions.

Incredibly enough, there still exist idiots who say that the cold weather in America is caused by "global warming". When I think of the polar bears who are kind of sensible, I am ashamed of being a human being – genetically speaking, a relatively close relative of the climate alarmists. I surely don't intend to debate these idiots but some of them are pushy and force you to debate them. But I believe that even skeptical websites are offering an increasing room to increasingly insane alarmist "theories" and I consider this trend counterproductive, to put it diplomatically.

The weather has been discussed by the higher society for centuries. English Gentlemen and many others have been starting their social conversations by comments about the weather for a very long time. We live in a highly advanced civilization whose numerous habits are however stupider than anything that people would be willing to participate in 300 years ago. The weather has been politicized and there exists a whole movement that likes to abuse the unpleasant weather, in one way or another, for pathological political goals – including tons of regulations, higher and new taxes, and even restrictions of the human freedoms including the freedom of speech. These people should be neutralized but the human civilization hasn't been courageous enough to remove these fraudsters and terrorists off the surface of the Earth which is why they keep on contaminating the public discourse by lies and ideologically motivated crap and threatening our freedom and prosperity. However, it's true that the belief in their crap is dying in this cold weather as quickly as the mosquitoes.

I wish the readers in North America to survive this weather. I am sure you will!

Stephen Hawking wrote an application for Apple devices that teaches you relativity, Snapshots of the Universe. Some people experience crashes and others will surely think that the realization is amateurish but look, it is Stephen Hawking's app! ;-)

Stephen Hawking is 72 tomorrow, congratulations. (The same thing to Galileo Galilei.)


  1. MoptopTheLibertarianJan 7, 2014, 6:35:00 PM

    Yes it is cold here. It was colder last week, reaching -18F, but it is plenty cold now. I like it. I choose to live here. This whole winter has been cold, the lake outside froze a month earlier than usual, so this is not some recent blip. However, I have it on good blog commenter authority that Europe's mild winter proves global warming is continuing on its inexorable destructive path.

  2. @MopTop... Key is a good science. Data not skewed by 400% fudge factors (NOAA hockey-stick temperature graph). Here is one undeniable, re-testable and re-tested result, global temperatures over last 10000 years from Greenland ice core (published, peer reviewed) http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/easterbrook_fig5.png

    Is climate in general warming over last 200 years? Yes. But FROM what? - From the coldest period in last 10000 years, little ice age. Just because our fathers, grandfathers,... experienced colder climate that does not make such state "normal". Also, despite 200 years of warming (from whatever cause) - we are still in 10% of COLDEST years in 10000 years of human civilization. Far down from even average, never mind warm.
    But it maybe bad for us? - See human civilization progress vs. temperature. Booming cultures in warm peaks. Wars and collapse during cold periods. But polar bears? - If they survived 9000 years of much warmer T's - they'll manage during coldest 1000...
    Important independent confirmation of both trains of thought stated above: 2006. Archaeological remains of large medieval farming community settlement emerged from under retreating ice of Greenland. Studied, published, peer reviewed. Large scale farming, not possible on modern Greenland, never mind just yards from retreating glacier. People lived and prospered. Ice was not "always" there. Matching medieval warming peak in attached graph.
    AGW is all human ideology. Sad to see so many scientist fall for it. (Too short space here to list details of two good existing proofs that this is not CO2 [search 1990's NASA/MIT study proving that whatever is warming Earth is not greenhouse effect] and what is main climate driver [2011 CERN Cloud exp.]).

  3. The cold front is just moving through Nova Scotia (~400mi NE of Boston). It went from +11C to -4C between 1am and 2pm. Projected low tonight is -13C which is cold but not unusual for this time of year. It's been a cold and snowy winter here. Looking forward to a week in the Carribean in March.

  4. Dusanmal, just tell me, when the graphs ends? Thanks,


  5. MoptopTheLibertarianJan 7, 2014, 8:37:00 PM

    Thanks Alexander. Now provide a weather situation which doesn't prove global warming.

  6. http://hint.fm/wind/
    Europe. Click at a spot; drag to rotate. Anybody criticizing Global Warming is unqualified to comment.

    Einstein's inertial elevator fails, still consistent with prior observations, given falsified postulates. Massless boson photons detect zero vacuum refraction, dispersion, dissipation, dichroism, or gyrotropy. Appy to fermionic matter (quarks), get parity violations, chiral anomalies, symmetry breakings; Chern-Simons repair of Einstein-Hilbert action. The vacuum is trace chiral toward matter. Opposite shoes embed within chiral vacuum (mount a left foot) with different energies. They vacuum free fall non-identically: Equivalence Principle violation. Crystallography's opposite shoes are visually and chemically identical, single crystal test masses in enantiomorphic space groups. Do it.

  7. MoptopTheLibertarianJan 7, 2014, 8:38:00 PM

    I have to give you credit for that one Alex, it ends 95 years ago. I would like to see the graph continued to the present, or at least until the year 2000, but I have never seen it.

  8. MoptopTheLibertarianJan 7, 2014, 8:40:00 PM

    So Lubos is not allowed to comment? Churlish of you to post it on his blog then, eh?

  9. Hi Lubos,

    No doubt some animals possess an internal compass. I don't know about dogs, but it's been observed in a lot of animals; birds and turtles are maybe the most well-known examples. Especially for turtles it's trivial to confirm; some researchers have simply placed them in an "artificial" magnetic field in a small pool and when the researchers flip the poles the turtles change their direction immediately. I've seen this in a documentary once. Other interesting navigation skills from the animal kingdom include bees (and many other insects) ability to use the sun and their amazing ability to communicate a route to other bees through "dancing". Also there is evidence that some birds have the ability to detect the centre of rotation of the stars and use this when migrating.

  10. Ann, according to Lumo your dog could be a Santa worshiper ;-). I strongly support this conjecture.

  11. I took the average daily temperatures from the NCEP reanalysis from 24 N to 49 N, and 235 E to 293 E, roughly corresponding to the continental USA. I then ranked each day within each year from coldest to warmest (in non leap years, I added an additional "average day" that was the average of all days) So that I would have 366 time series of days from 1979-2013. I then calculated the slope of linear trends for each day rank (from 1 being the coldest and 366 being the warmest day of each year)-the fastest warming trend was on the third coldest day of the year, warming about 0.057 K per year. That's almost six degrees per century. The two colder days saw similar trends. By contrast, the warmest day of the year warmed at a rate of about 0.016 K per year. I also calculated the standard errors of the regressions slopes and can show the two sigma intervals, interestingly warmest day warming is not different from zero at that confidence level, although the warming of the coldest days *is*. Here is a pretty graph:


    It looks like, if anything, warming ought to be drastically reducing the frequency of events like this, and not changing the really hot temperatures very much.

  12. It's worse than that, the Crackpot Theory is empirically wrong. See my graph above

  13. I'd say about 1905 ± a year or so but the tone of your question carries the risk of seeming a little snide.

    What's your point?

  14. So if I download BEST temperature data for Greenland...

    Well, first problem: the resolution of the GISP 2 Ice core data is low and smoothed. It looks like frequencies below about 30 years are totally attenuated out, possibly more. So I have to smooth the temperature data to make it comparable.

    Second problem, I have to make the datasets have the same average where the overlap. Easy enough.

    Third problem, ideally I could scale the data since the temperatures might vary by different factors at the location of the core versus the average over all of Greenland. This last problem I couldn't really surmount, so take thinks with a bit a grain of salt.

    At any rate, here they are, 30 year smoothed BEST data and GISP 2 Greenland Ice Core data, since 8000 BC:


    Now I know what some boneheads out there are probably thinking: AHA! The red goes a tiny bit higher than the MWP!

    Yes it does. In the 1930's. The most recent point is in fact about the same.

  15. Even cooler, I can regress each ranked day on the average annual temperature, to find: for every one K the year warms, or cools, how much does each rank day warm or cool, on average.

    *Only* the coldest days have a coefficient significantly greater than 1, that is to say that a one degree warming or cooling of the whole year is associated with a greater than 1 degree warming or cooling of the coldest days, but in most days of the year, the change in temperature is no significantly different from a warming uniform throughout the year of 1 degree.

  16. 2013 was the first year in 20 that saw more all-time lows than highs recorded. Even in the peak warm year, there were over a thousand record lows recorded versus three thousand new highs. The wealth of new records in both directions suggests that the series is still too short to establish the actual normal range. Anyway, Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, long acknowledged dean of solar astrophysicists until the great genius Al Gore jumped on the media stage and showed everybody the Real Climate Science, has been predicting for some time that 2014 would usher in a new era of global cooling. http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/apr/article/view/14754

  17. If the next impending eruption of a super-volcano were marketed with more muscle by the media it would create a counter-scare that would not only stop most Warmers in their tracks but turn them around to be advocates for burning fossil fuels as a buffer against the massive cooling calamity that would ensue. ;-}

  18. Am looking forward to soon free up and tap the same sense of direction during defecation in us humans; i.e. do so via my soon to be lodged patent-application for a rotatable toilet-bowl/stool.©

  19. Our favourite science site is disagreeing with the Polar vortex and blaming jet streams ;-)


  20. Dear Dilaton,
    Best recovery wishes from me too!

  21. You can't patent "existing art," even if it's not already patented. See my earlier message below. :-)


  22. You should publish!

  23. You made a dose of fun for today, Wierdna, thanks! ;-)


  24. And now, try to do the same without "smoothing", which is kind of removind the global warming signal, eh?


  25. OK, let's say that's possible, and that the resulting figures are consistent with the pattern of global warming since 1905. Then what?

    I.e. what's your point? Do you have one? You seem reluctant to follow through.

    Come on, let's see your logic here. Do you have any?

    So far your observations are about as relevant to the topic as the price of eggs. The best you've achieved so far is snide innuendo—and all piss and wind at that—as if to imply that the lack of figures to date clinch it for the greentard agenda. They don't.

  26. I was not deliberately half-stealing your almost identical and almost as brilliant thinking (as mine) in terms of turning toilets. However, my placating tone ends here.
    I'm NOT [shouted and cried] sorry that my free will (which I intended to help Lumo define, but, finally, the will wasn't there) is operating within a market economy free enough for me not to have to give any credit to you and your almost identical idea as I will selfishly soon enjoy using the finished product of my soon Fairyland registered patent.
    You have to comfort yourself by thinking that the similarity of our ideas were an example of convergent "fine-cultural" evolution. ;-)
    P.S. I suggest that you get control of your frustrated feeling by smoking the much less harmful electronic cigarettes that are now available. I wich I would have patented them instead. :-)

  27. MoptopTheLibertarianJan 8, 2014, 1:17:00 PM

    What would be cool is if we could get the earlier data unsmoothed by physical processe in the ice. It would no doubt show peaks much higher than those that appear with, of course, plenty of compensating valleys. Unless you are suggesting that the temperature actually was that smooth back then.

    I think a better criticism is that we know that solar insolation at high latitudes peaked several thousand years ago, and has been declining since. What would be helpful is to show a trendline of solar insolation at the latitude of the ice core.

  28. I found article done by professional seismologist to be rather informative (warning - it is on Croatian, but should not be a problem for any modern browser) - see http://www.crometeo.hr/kontrasti-europe-i-amerike-ili-sto-se-dogada-s-vremenom/

  29. Ouch Moptop,

    since we HAVE global warming, it is not our job to show that it has an (obvious) effect on weather, More importantly, you should show why warming of the atmosphere should NOT have an effect on (any) weather. The line of evidence is on your side. Clearly -- different climate = different weather...


  30. Brilliant Alexander! You don't have to prove that the world is facing a catastrophe, it is we "sceptics" who have to prove that it isn't and without any time limit either.

    Is someone paying your for this or are you like on of these British journalists that Humbert Wolfe wrote about:

    You cannot hope
    to bribe or twist,
    thank God! the
    British journalist.
    But, seeing what
    the man will do
    unbribed, there's
    no occasion to.

  31. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/06/can-global-warming-be-real-if-its-cold-in-the-u-s-um-yes/

  32. Oh cut it out the the damn cheer, I don't think you know what that word means. Hey wasn't you who claimed some years back that you willing to bet that we would see more warming by now. Do you coincide that you would have lost that bet?

  33. You might find this post interesting:


    It shows a high anti-correlation between high latitude solar insolation and rate of change in ice volume (zero lagged). I've seen other graphs that show a correlation between ice volume and temperature, so it seems that temperature should be the integral of solar insolation.


    I'm still puzzled by why global temperature is correlated with ice volume rather than it's rate of change. That is, I'd think that ice would melt fastest when it is hottest and would be at it's minimum volume a quarter cycle later. Apparently the isotope analysis shows otherwise.

  34. Actually, my finding is established in the existing literature, for example:


    I don't know if it would be worth the trouble, for such a relatively simple analysis. Maybe? I'll look into it.

  35. Strange world, in which warming causes cold and this is an "obvious" effect.

    Being silly and evil I naturally think if there would be an *obvious* effect of warming on whether it would be making there be *less* of it.

    And being especially evil, and especially silly, I look at the data, and the data indeed agrees with me, warming reduces cold weather. Hm, strange that, it was so obvious that the opposite was true.

  36. No, it doesn't remove any signal, it removes short term noise that goes up and down. And it is needed because directly comparing the observed data, which has a monthly resolution, with the ice core data, which has a multi-year resolution and was smoothed when I retrieved it (not by me!) would be comparing apples and oranges.

    It isn't "removing the global warming signal." Saying something like that strongly supports the hypothesis that someone has already removed your brain.

  37. Hee. She probably does, but Santa will excommunicate her for chasing his reindeer!

  38. That's it, Alexander? Your ability to formulate a cogent reply to empirical points is breathtaking.

  39. Look up dip angle.

    If they were serious they would have imposed a rather stronger field in a dog run

  40. Ok guys, just try to simply explain my why do you believe there is a FREE LUNCH in the case of climate?

    In the same vein, do you believe there is a FREE LUNCH in economics, like taking on debt FOREVER?

    Comments welcome as Luboš says ;-)


  41. "... falsification of a grand principle." — good summary of Milgrom's achievment

    http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1983ApJ...270..365M "A modification of the Newtonian dynamics as a possible alternative to the hidden mass hypothesis" by M. Milgrom

  42. MoptopTheLibertarianJan 8, 2014, 10:47:00 PM

    Can catastrophic global warming be false if it is hot in Australia? -- Yes.

  43. Members of a cult will increase their rhetoric when their predictions of doom come to be seen as false.

  44. Well as long as you welcome comment, please say something worth comment.

  45. Gore's Global Warming Secret

    You'll never guess what initially inspired Al Gore's "temperature" mania - the one that's raised our tempers.
    Well, Gore is from Tennessee where you can hear Bible belt preachers warning about "Hell fire" in the next life.

    And Gore, concerned about this life, is surrounded by those who also
    know about the prediction in Revelation (chapter 16) of the coming time
    when a change in the sun will result in humans being "scorched with
    great heat"!
    It wouldn't be convenient if folks were to discover
    that Gore, a liberal, was influenced by the handbook closely associated
    with Christian fundamentalists!
    If Tennessee fundy preachers
    could look at the same predictions-packed apocalyptic book and stretch
    forward in time some future events, Gore could surely do the same thing
    and stretch forward the "great heat" and turn it into cold cash.

    All of us are well aware of the incredible influence that the
    Gore-orrhea plague has had on the whole world including the White House!
    But Gore's overlooked another Bible verse which says that "there is nothing hid that shall not be revealed."
    The real "inconvenient truth" is that the SS Al Gore is now stuck in ice - and what we need is a Gorebreaker!

  46. This is the most revealing comment you have made so far Alexander. You obviously believe that “there is no free lunch” is a religious principle, established by an austere god that rules over Climate, Economics and everything else.

    Unfortunately, Alexander, the “absence of arbitrage” principle in economics, is an approximate principle that applies only to equilibrium in relatively free markets. It simply says that if in some market there existed a risk free way of making money than it would eventually become known and market participants would take advantage of it, resulting in its disappearance. An simplified example says: “there are no hundred dollar notes lying on the street” (because they would have already been found and collected).

    Perhaps this also applies to “climate” but not in the way you think. There are indeed opportunities to make a career and money for nothing in the pseudo-science called “climate research”. If the market was really free, they would start disappearing and eventually be gone for good. The fact that it hasn’t happened yet only means that it is rigged market dominated by inside traders who ought to be (and let’s hope will end up) in jail.

  47. Every time I see Alexander's name, I get the uncontrollable urge to grab a Greenpeace activist off the street and slowly, methodically beat his face to a bloody pulp. I'm a bad person!

    AA is just another specimen that proves how the desire to follow a religion is hard-wired in human nature. For some, it is the fear of extinction, for others the need to follow a moral compass, and for others the craving to be at one with some form of "cosmic justice". Gaia worshippers have found their own little toxic cult, but without the checks and balances that have grown in established religions over milleniae.

  48. My dog "Feynman" exploded from constipation after I gave him a magnetic dog collar whose seller claimed that it would cure the dog of cancer.

    After reading about this ground-breaking research, I'll be planting old fridge magents in my front yard to stop the neighbourhood's dog doing their business there.


  49. But there is a "free lunch" in climate because nobody pays for the energy that creates climate , it is free from the sun.

    It is a religious ethic that wants one to "pay" for everything, to expiate oneself from the original sin:

    "Behold, I was brought forth in iniquity, And in sin my mother conceived me." http://biblehub.com/psalms/51-5.htm

  50. Anna, unfortunately, you misunderstood my question, but I am not surprised.

    And yes, whatever people do, they have to pay for it - in terms of making an effort to achieve it (and as it happens, also creating a modification/destruction of natural habitat along the way..).

    You should study some very basic things such as termodynamics etc.


  51. As it happens Lucretius, your comment is that much more revealing. Welcome to the group of free-lunchers, free-market-all-solvers or how to call this group of crazy lunatics...


  52. Of, greenpeace activist commenting on a blog of famous (?) theoretical physicist? Really?

    They dont waste time on such things...

    Dont know about religion (I dont follow any of it) - I usually read scientific paper, how about you?

  53. O.T., but given your tendency to quote Shakespeare, I thought you might enjoy this:

    and this:

  54. Lets hypothesize that dogs evolved on the plains. When dogs leave their dens to poop I would imagine that they would pretty reasonably want look back at the den to watch-over their pack. The simplest most reliable way for a dog to accomplish this directional task would be come out of the den head due north and poop pointing south or vice-versa. It would also be easy for a pup who is heading out of the den to poop in its first few weeks to return back without getting lost. I am assuming the dogs would not want to poop close to their den so senses like smell and sound can be misleading when at greater distances. Ought to be easy to confirm if my bird-brain hypothesis is true or not among wild canines that build dens by observing which direction they head out for pooping. I am assuming such patterns were already analyzed and the hypothesis does not hold. For other purposes such as foraging they would of course use every source of directional information that they can get their hands on. Maybe akin to us dogs feel more vulnerable when nature calls for the long one and looking back at the den gives them reassurance?