Wednesday, June 04, 2014

New Russia can no longer reunify with a Kiev-led country

The fights in the Novorussian Confederacy – the newly declared union of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic – continue and we have gotten used to this sad situation, to women and children who have to live in basements, to save their lives from hostile airstrikes organized by the Maidan regime that has declared the whole large ethnic population of what used to be Ukraine as terrorists and that is working 24/7 to invade the newly born republics and to violently force everyone to obedience.
Sad news in climate science: George Kukla, a Czech American who would be a Nixon adviser and who would suggest as early as in 1972 that people should think about global warming, passed away on Monday. Later, he would become a prominent climate skeptic and even an advocate of "global cooling". Kukla was close to ex-president Klaus and may also be viewed as one of the top five scientists who have convinced the U.S. not to sign to the Kyoto protocol.
Like Slobodan Miloševič, Saddam Hussein, and other villains of ethnic cleansing, it is very clear now that the likes of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Oleksandr Turchynov, and now even Petro Poroshenko deserve nooses. It is also self-evident, however, that many people will have to die before the basic justice may be restored. The ethnic cleansing will continue for quite some time. The fascist junta in Kiev just boasted that it has murdered 300 citizens of New Russia just in the last 24 hours. 300 murders a day is what some American officials praise as "restraint".

Putin's Russia is trying to convince – completely unsuccessfully, of course – the fascist junta to negotiate with the representatives of the large chunk of the population that doesn't want to be reunified with a Ukraine whose governments are being formed in this way, mostly by aggressive fascist mobs on the street. So far, Putin and his pals are doing nothing material to help the suffering population at all.

But can you imagine how much the folks in Donetsk, Slavyansk, and other cities have to hate the acting government in Kiev? Hundreds of their men – some of the most courageous men – are dying every day. They're relatives and friends of many other people, mostly but not entirely Russian-speaking people. Many of these survivors – especially women – have exactly the same opinions as the Novorussian warriors. The only reason they don't fight is that they don't know how to fight.

Donetsk would be a relatively prosperous city just a few months ago. It was very hospitable and alright when it was hosting my hometown's soccer team, FC Viktoria Pilsen. Pilsen defeated Donetsk – a far richer team owned by Ukraine's wealthiest man – to continue in the Champions League before it was eliminated by Lyon in the following interaction. But things worked. The economy was producing things. People were doing ordinary things on the street. Now, a large part of life in the city was made disappeared.

There are millions of people who must be viscerally hating the perpetrators of the crimes against the population of what used to be a part of Ukraine – and everyone who supports them or enables their hyenic acts. Roughly speaking, there are two possible scenarios. Either the Kiev junta exterminates millions of people, or it will keep on facing millions of people who find their being governed by a similar Kiev junta utterly unacceptable – much more unacceptable than just half a year ago when the relationships between the ethnic groups in Ukraine were pretty much fine (if compared to the present ones).

Let me suppose that the world – and perhaps even the seemingly hopelessly brainwashed West – would wake up in the first case, when millions of people would be exterminated by the fascist junta. At the end, the perpetrators would hopefully be punished by the international community, or Russia's patience would finally stop. If we eliminate this option of a megascale genocide, we're facing the second option: the most open Novorussian warriors will have been murdered but Kiev will still face a hostile, unmanageable territory. Do they really want to control such a territory where almost everyone will be against them? I assure them that if they are at least slightly rational, they don't want such a thing. They should realize that they should allow the people of New Russia to leave the union much like the Czechs calmly allowed the Slovaks to gain the independence, if I simplify the Czechoslovak situation of 1992 a little bit.

Meanwhile, various angry and bloody "professionally Eastern" European nations – those who want to blame the Russian nation for their own inferiority forever – are doing everything they can to strengthen the war rhetoric and increase the tensions. Irresponsible politicians in the U.S. and elsewhere listen to these hateful people and NATO is increasing its presence in Europe. They think that they benefit if they start preparing a big war. Generally, it may work like that except that it doesn't seem to work for them right now. Putin's approval rate goes up but theirs isn't. Maybe they should consider a possibility that they're doing something fundamentally wrong. Most people just don't want a useless war, especially not against the innocent Russian Federation.

Thankfully, at least the otherwise unspectacular Czech government realizes that this trend is a path promoted by hateful and stupid people. The government led by Mr Sobotka opposes NATO's increased presence in Europe while the Czech president Zeman says that the increased presence is OK if it is symbolic. Both of these relatively calm attitudes are probably exceptional in the post-socialist Europe where Russophobia is the king. Well, our Slovak brothers also refuse new NATO troops on their territory. Of course that we have mindless warmongers in the government, too. The hardcore leftist demagogue and the minister of foreign affairs Mr Zaorálek – who is normally full of populist conspiracy theories directed against the wealthy, exactly the kind of junk that doesn't belong to the Western civilization – is one of the leaders of the warmongering today. It is probably no coincidence that these two political features are unified in a single person.

I would like to emphasize to the anti-Russian "professional" Eastern Europeans that the reason why you hate Russia so much is your own inferiority – the need to look for problems outside yourself. Germany has had much tougher experience with Russia and the USSR – the horrible Second World War conflict followed by things like the DDR – but in general, the German nation doesn't hate Russia and is happy to have decent relationships with Russia. In the U.K., a party that considers Putin to be a good politician (UKIP) won the latest elections (to the EU Parliament), proving that Russophobia isn't a ticket to a win in the elections.

The Kiev junta must realize – or must be forced to realize – that they have done way too many unacceptable crimes and at least their control over New Russia whose most citizens realize that the junta's inhuman behavior has been beyond the pale must stop. The only alternative is the continuation of this war which is, like most wars, bringing many more tragedies than benefits. I sort of think that the public opinion in Russia won't allow the Kremlin to remain the indifferent external observer it is nowadays if the casualties in New Russia start to approach the "million(s)".

Please, stop this insanity and punish the perpetrators of the crimes against humanity. The "rebels" in Eastern Ukraine – the relatively conservative citizens who oppose the true rebels and their anti-democratic, violent way to overthrow a legitimate government – deserve to be heard at least as much as the angry demonstrators in Kiev (who were mostly not heard, either, but that's another story).


  1. Technology moves on apace. Good reason to be cheerful.

    What with e-money (no cash), fingerprints, DNA, facial and other biometrics, chipping, brain-wave readers, an ON/OFF switch ... the stunted adolfs in the branch offices of the EU stalinarchy will finally be able to have a field day with societal planning right down to the micro level. Life will be perfect. We'll all be so happy!

  2. I hope Russia will not abandon their own people like they abandoned us during the Orlov revolt;

    as a result we were massacred by the Turks.

  3. True. It's only the beginning though, wait a few more years and newborn babies will be microchipped like cats or dogs are now ;).

    I would gladly invest in a good EMP weapon project on kickstarter or indiegogo at this point.

  4. Yep, seems the worst science fiction nightmares about future societies are finally becoming true ...

    Bureaucrats are much worse and more evil than the Borg or Replicators:

    Set once free, they can not be stopped
    by nothing

  5. BTW, and FYI, the Front National, like the UKIP, also consider Putin as a good politician who defends his country and protects his people.

  6. The Orlov revolt happened 244 years ago, even before the American Revolution. We have long since forgiven the English for slaughtering so many of us. Isn’t it about time to put this behind you?

  7. Many of us are pleased about the changes occurring in France, Shannon.

  8. LOL.
    Good thing they found a usable finger. Who knows what would happen otherwise.:-)

  9. thejollygreenmanJun 4, 2014, 5:31:00 PM

    Gene, there is something wrong in your sentence there. ...Slaughtering so many of us... seems to imply that some of the guys who weren't slaughtered are still around, which, I am sure you will agree, is highly unlikely. All the people from that age are now dead, so the us is not applicable. Our ancestors, our forebears, etc. may be more correct.

  10. I read Biggs comments, the paper claimed an average of 200 deaths a year by hurricanes when it was 47, then they failed to take in account that female name were used for decades and male names are on recently. They did not get the basic facts right, some much for pal review. Of course the C&D students that now compose our media are not bright enough to catch any of this. So much for media watch dogs, they more like puppies lost without mom to follow, to they chase anything that moves.

  11. The simple working model of autocratic oppressive tyranny, a vile abuse of privilege devoted to malicious infliction of cruelties and losses, re Irvine, California,

    Vlad the Hammer only lacks an Enforcement Committee. Any homeowner who does not comply suffers a lien placed on its property. It is evicted pending appeal.

  12. The triumph of the Western-backed oligarchs was a done deal from the moment Victoria Nuland passed out her first cookie on Maidan Square.

    Nuland's merry band of vulture capitalists won't be happy until they've picked Ukraine's corpse clean to the bone.

  13. Would the US working towards this "New World Order" in Ukraine with the help of Brussels ? Just wondering...

  14. Stephen Walt also believes that Putin is the winner here:

    "Given these realities, did it make any sense whatsoever to keep expanding missile defenses in Eastern Europe, to take advantage of Russian cooperation in the Security Council to do "regime change" in Libya, and then to back an ill-conceived effort to pull Ukraine into an economic and strategic partnership with the West? The answer is no, because Russia cares a lot more about Ukraine's fate than we do -- with good reason -- and Putin had many ways to thwart our efforts (as indeed he has). And make no mistake, he's been the big winner here: Crimea is now part of Russia, NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table for good, and Ukraine's new president clearly understands that good relations with Moscow are essential, just as Putin wanted."

  15. Putin knows that America's greatest strength is also its greatest weakness, and that is its ability to create money. If he is smart, and I think he is highly intelligent, he will not ignite another Cold War. Russia will sit back, like China, and watch western central banks crumble into dust. The people will revolt and the elite will beg Russia and China for help. The West is making Russia and China look like the good guys. Slip the jab, Vlad.

    It almost sounds like a plan.

  16. You often hear apologists for this surveillance culture stating that "...if you ain't got nothing to hide then you ain't got nothing to fear!" - I think this naive at best, since that which is considered 'subversive behavior' or even 'terrorist activity' can be changed at the whim of the watcher. As usual, 'the watcher' has no desire to subject himself to the same transparency he would like you to passively accept.

  17. Civil liberties are such intangible concepts that they are always vulnerable to clunking arguments like "it's not a problem unless you're doing something wrong" and "it's necessary to prevent x or y or z." It's hard to say exactly what we suffer if we allow things like this, and hard to point to a clear cause and effect.

    But if you look at free societies, and if you look at societies with extensive state surveillance, and ask yourself where you would rather live, the answer is clear. That is what civil liberties are, and that is their value.

    As governments seek more and more information about us - simply because they can - they become more and more capable of controlling our actions. Knowledge about us is power over us. Unless we believe that governments are beneficent expressions of the popular will (in which case you're a fascist or a communist), we should always seek to limit government power to no more than it needs to be. And we shouldn't listen to government's opinions about what its powers need to be.

  18. The US will continue telling Europeans what to do - even if within certain limits - so long as the US remains involved in European security arrangements. Until Europe pulls some money out of its social programs and buys itself a real military, this will not change.

  19. Very true, Cynthia.

    I - or a person who is working hard to be honest and compatible with the law - only has "nothing to hide" as long as "those who search" are constrained by certain rules what is legal, too.

    But as long as the person "who searches" has the capability of changing what he calls "illegal", i.e. whatever he finds inconvenient for any personal or institutional reason, I always have tons of things to hide.

  20. Right, so far Putin has done a clear round in this nasty trap set by the US.

  21. Lubos, next time you have to do business with officials properly equipped - bring an interpreter.

  22. Too many wars, too much blood…

    Starting from the battle of Manzikert at 1071 we are fighting the Turks for almost 1000 years now. The last war was at 1974.

    In any case people should not live in the past but at the same time they shouldn’t forget their History;

    If you put the past behind you, you will find it again in front of you.

  23. Dear Lubos,
    I am quite sure I wouldn't get problems in Germany losing an old passport and not even the current one. After all I could always say that it is stolen so what could they say. If I lose the current one I have to pay for the new one of course which is kind of fair. I can't imagine that things are really that different in the Czech republic.
    Regarding the finger prints I can understand that the experience was unpleasant. But even companies have bureaucratic procedures and dropping outside their rules usually means some kind of trouble. I wonder what they would have done in your case if taking finger prints would have really been impossible and what the rate of those occurences is. There must be some exceptions for people without hands at least...

  24. Yes.

    But they've got this all on its head. It's the politicos and bureaucrats that are out of control, not us. We need to 'chip' THEM, preferably with small explosive devices implanted in their skulls to be triggered by some kind of popular vote.

    If we'd had this capability a few decades ago then, for example, bliar's problem with his eyes being too close together would have been rapidly fixed.

  25. Didn't the Russian Navy, with help then of the British and French, make good about 50 years later in a big naval battle? But I would not worry about the Donbas, those forces, even lacking heavy weapons are perfectly capable of handling the bullies, they have won 98% of the battles in SE UA.

  26. But why should the state even make it mandatory for you to supply your fingerprints? If it were opt-in, then you could choose whether or not to supply them. I understand there are some arguments in favor of doing so. But I can also think of reasons against. For example, someone in the state apparatus takes a dislike to what you write on your weblog. He knows how to retrieve your prints from the supposedly secure database and leaves a copy at the scene of a crime...

  27. Perhaps one may destroy RFID chip inside passport (using microvawe owen?) and thus avoid the difficulty with unclear fingerprints.

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  29. Yeap, the naval Battle of Navarino almost 60 years later.

  30. Lubos, if there is ethnic cleansing in Eastern Ukraine, then why the dead bodies are shipped to Russia (Russian-Chechen terrorists return home in body bags (in Rus) Instructor from elite Russian FSB centre killed in Donetsk

    And why Russian speaking and Russian Ukrainians in Donbass are afraid of Putin and Russian backed-terrorists more than of Ukrainian army?

    You're towing the Putin line very effectively. Hope you're getting paid.

  31. The dead ethnic Russians are being shipped to Russia because it's the only place where they may safely enjoy peace at least after they die - isn't that obvious? How is this fact about shipping supposed to weaken the fact that the Kiev regime is performing ethnic cleansing in Eastern Ukraine? In my opiinion, it clearly strengthens it.

  32. European governments musn't tolerate terrorism. That's why Russians fought Chechens, and that's why Ukrainian army should exterminate all novorussian criminals occupying ukrainian administrative buildings. Many of those bandits arent even Ukrainian or Russian, but Chechen - it's a fact. So this situation is similar to situation in Syria, but there, I must admit, Russia stands on the good side against terrorists paid by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. And one more thing. In front of the building in Lugansk that got bombed, there was hanging a red, soviet flag. For all true conservatists the only good commies are dead commies. People who support regime that brought great famine on eastern Ukraine, a genocide of over 5 milion people, are excactly the same kind of scum as holocaust denieres, and no decent person should cry for them.

  33. I would like to point out the half-truth reasoning in your argument about the "professional eastern europeans". Yes, my nation is inferior today. There are historical reasons for it, like the Russian occupation from 1944, but that's not the point. No, I don't hate Russia, I hate the Russian State.

    What you're saying is that a weakened body is responsible for its collapsing by a virus attack. Of course you're right. The body must be strengthened in order to resist the attack. But it doesn't change the fact that a virus is a virus. Try living in a septic cesspit (what Russia's neighborhood actually is) and building a strong, healthy body at the same time.

    I'll give you a fresh example to counter your "forever". The European Commission is preparing sanctions for my country, because Gazprom is using our puppet government to gain full monopoly over the South Stream pipeline, violating the European legislation and again our own interests. Should I be happy about it? I'm going to pay for the pleasure of working with the Russian State. This is as peaceful as beating someone for a morning greeting.

    I've no problem with my country having a mutually beneficial relationship with the Russian bear as long as we have power (like Germany) to punch it in the face whenever necessary. Sadly, we don't have the luxury of saying "hey little russians, remember when we've almost exterminated you? We're really sorry, lets be friends now and make some money. Sell us your cheap gas, like a good old third world nation, which rely only on resource export, and then buy our expensive cars!"

    We have trade relationships with America too. They also send their state representatives to negotiate their own energy projects. But when we say no it means no. They don't force us to change our laws! A slight difference which determine the love/hate mood. We're not going to like one desease just because we have several of them. Personally, I'll never support a smerd empire. I like cool, free thinking people ;)

  34. Could you expand on that a little please, Gene? You have me confused as to where you stand.

    From from what I've read of your comments, on the one hand you seem quite ... cheerful ... about the demographic changes taking place whereby whites become a minority in California and possibly eventually the whole of the USA, ostensibly a happy-clappy ultra'liberal' ultra-anti'racist' stand, yet on the other you seem here to be supporting the rise of a party which all 'right-thinking' people can only regard as a 'thoroughly nasty bunch of racist extremists'.

    For the avoidance of doubt, I don't intend my question to be taken as contentious in any way; I am genuinely puzzled. Of course, I have phrased it in such a way as to make my own position rather obvious but that's primarily to highlight the contradictory nature of your position as it might appear to others, and in particular, as it does to me. My first recourse is to assume I have completely misunderstood you and not that you hold contradictory views, which latter seems otherwise out of character.

    Wait! I've got it. Maybe.

    You're pleased about the direction the influx of those barbaric muslimes is having on the demographics of France and with the resulting destruction of the country that this entails? Is that it? In other words, your comment was straight sarcasm?

  35. Ania, the dead bodies on the Ukrainian side might be shipped to the US ;-).
    A lot of people are buried on the land they cherish the most...

  36. Ahhh bureaucracy, it's a global pandemic :-)

  37. "I like cool, free thinking people"

    Me too. So take my advice and stay well away from the EU.

    TOP TIP: The best place for its envoys is in body bags.

    And by the way, if you or any of your pals are thinking about coming to the UK, please don't. I'm sick and tired of seeing and hearing fucking foreigners here.

    "But what about the fucking British abroad?" you might ask, in a clever-dick sort of way.

    That's their lookout, I say. But if their 'freedom of movement' is only to be bought at the quid-pro-quo expense of those of us who stay put, then screw 'em. No deal.

    No ethnic mixing, no ethnic tension. Peace and love forever and ever. Amen.

    Otherwise I hope you all sort your problems out to each other's satisfaction. Good luck with that.

  38. I sort of think that the public opinion in Russia won't allow the Kremlin to remain the indifferent external observer it is nowadays if the casualties in New Russia start to approach the "million(s)".
    Dear Lubos for some unknown reason you seem to leave your usual pragmatic common sense when this particular matter is concerned.
    I am on record on this very blog for having correctly predicted the annexion of Crimea because it obviously made sense.
    Russia had a huge strategic interest, Russia had its army already in place via a long term lease and a majority of the local population (certainly not 90% but significantly more than 50% is enough) looked warmly upon Russia.
    That these initial conditions imply an annexion is almost a natural law.
    The situation in a (small) part of East Ukraine is very different.
    Russia has no strategic interest there and Putin interviewed on the french TV yesterday because he's visiting France for the 70th celebration of the 1944 operation Overlord said very explicitely so.
    Russia has certainly also no interest to get bogged down and spend billions to fight uncontrolled bands of both sides.
    And Russia knows very well that there will be no "millions" of casualties.
    Just look at something we have a big experience with.
    When Russia (helped by its brothers like Poland,East Germany etc) invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968, it faced 14 millions of extremely hostile and hateful citizens.
    Even if the Czech army had interdiction to fight, there still was "fighting" and a big number of violent acts against the Russian invader.
    Virtually every Czech and especially the youth was ready to kill a Russian or to burn a Russian tank with gazoline bottles (I witnessed personnally such an attempt on 27 August in Krc - a Prag outskirt).
    Now were there "millions" of casualties ?
    No because time makes always its work. Being a "hero" consumes a large energy at large psychological costs. It is not sustainable for a very long time.
    So the Russians killed off the most "heroic" people, put another few thousands in a camp and intimidated the remaining millions.
    In 1 year everything was over, people started not to care again and the "normalisation" restored "peace and order".
    I predict that same will happen in East Ukraine.
    The army will kill a few thousands of the most "heroic" for one camp and "terrorist" for the other camp, put in prison some of the most excited and restore order. The remaining "millions" will just see the wrong of their ways like we did in 1968.
    The big difference being that it was hard and dangerous to flee Czechoslovakia in 1969 while it is easy and without danger to flee East Ukraine today.
    East Ukraine is exactly a cut&paste of the Russian invasion strategy in 1968 and if there is one who knows that it works, it is Putin ...
    Of course, this is merely an Nth variant of "ethnical cleansing".
    But there is a record of thousands years showing that ethnical cleansing is the single most efficient way to pacify a territory with maximum speed at minimum cost. Even the Czechs have used this knowledge in Sudeten and the Poles in Pommern.
    Symmetrically when ethnical cleansing doesn't take place in a region where hate exists based on ethnical reasons, then conflicts fester in this region forever.

  39. Dear Tom, I think that I agree with you and it is not quite clear to me why you think that I don't.

  40. Oh, I'm sorry to disappoint you, but some of my pals are already in UK working in the City. One of them told me recently that his British boss spoke to him, after the EU elections, saying that Farage is a great shame for his nation. Period. So why don't you first agree among yourselves, dear British friends?

  41. There was a great Ted Baxter line on the old Mary Tyler Moore show. Ted has the inspiration of hiring Idi Amin as the station’s African correspondent, and he says: “We can call up Idi and ask how things are going in Africa — and she’ll tell us!” What brought this to mind is the NSA’s (and the US Government’s) apparent strategy on surveillance: “Gather all information on everybody all the time everywhere — and then filter it!” I’m not suggesting that the two problems, of news ratings and government intelligence, are analogous. Rather, just compare the relative level of sophistication of the two algorithms.

  42. Dear Lubos I thought so because of the sentence I quoted.
    It seems to say (unless I completely misunderstood something) that Russia will intervene in East Ukraine if casualties there get to "millions".
    Even when I translate "millions" in thousands what you probably meant, I do not think that Russia will stop being an external observer regardless of what its own population thinks.
    So it seemed to me that we had a difference in that you meant that Russia would intervene (under some conditions) while I thought that it would not (regardless of conditions).
    Seeing what's happening right now, I am even more confident in my prediction. Putin is a pragmatic and he has nothing (well very little) to win in getting directly involved in this mess. East Ukraine will therefore be "normalised" like we were in 1969 and Russia will probably obtain something that will not be public for not making much noise while this "normalisation" is happening.

  43. Sorry, Tom, a million means a million, ten to the sixth power. I don't understand why you would "translate" the word "million" as a thousand. I don't call it a translation, I call it a complete distortion of my words.

    It plays a very essential role in my whole argument that it's millions one is talking about. It's millions that hate the current Kiev bureaucrats. Whether thousands die - and we're very close to it already, anyway - has virtually no impact on the acts of Russia, well, because the value of thousands of lives in Russia isn't that high.

    I am talking about the systemic key questions concerning the crisis, not some sad but minor and cosmetic issues.

  44. Allen Victor CoxJul 1, 2014, 12:09:00 PM

    This Scum running Ukraine are manipulated by USA who want agrovation with Russia porochenko is Obamas puppet he does as he is told god help us all