Sunday, August 17, 2014

A looming civil war in Kiev?

The Czech media such as Tyden.CZ (The Week) quickly informed about a new development in Northwestern Ukraine – perhaps, we should say that these developments took place on Facebook. ;-)

A criminal and de facto minister of interior of Northwestern Ukraine Arsen Avakov – who has been arrested in Moscow for his usage of illegal means of warfare and mass murders of civilians but Moscow isn't able to put him in jail so far – has attacked Dmitry Yarosh, the boss of the Nazi paramilitary movement "The Right Sector" that has played the key role in the recent coup in Kiev.

I can't see these reports outside the Czech media, except for a very poorly formatted text on RIN's server in Russia, so let me mention what is going on. (Update: There is a report on Russia Today now.)

The relations between the Nazi heart of the Maidan movement – especially "The Right Sector" – and the would-be Kiev government with a "more human face" haven't been good for several months, especially after a fat bully and brutal murderer Oleksander Muzychko of "The Right Sector" was liquidated by the de facto government's shooters.

The anti-Maidan "dissidents" consider Yarosh to be a ruthless killer and a Nazi who won't be stopped by anything but Avakov has lost patience, too. On his Facebook wall, Avakov informed Yarosh that "we've had enough of this game in which you are a Robin Hood." Instead, Yarosh is "abusing the name he enjoys among the patriots who are being turned into food for the cannons." The units of "The Right Sector" – which are only loosely supervised by the politicians in Kiev – were identified as "illegal gangs that are fighting without any rules and outside the laws."

Finally, in the text that was meant to say that Yarosh's acts confirm what the Russian "propaganda" is saying (because Yarosh is sacrificing human lives in order to build his own ego), Avakov asked: "Whom is Yarosh working for?"

These comments were found provoking by Yarosh who decided to hide and whine under Poroshenko's skirts. Yarosh sent a letter to the recently elected president in which he requests that Poroshenko restores order at the ministry of interior.
If our demands are not going to be satisfied within 48 hours, we will recall our armed units from the front [in New Russia] and they will march towards Kiev. The marching convoys of the Right Sector will begin their journey with all of their weapons.
Avakov himself was classified as the "leader of the internal counterrevolution." Well, Avakov's secret service, SBU, has made several riots in the offices of The Right Sector and has arrested many folks. In Lvov, the cops would confiscate a car of The Right Sector that was fully loaded with guns and grenades.

Avakov himself has described the forces of "The Right Sector" as mythical ones and the ultimatum as a publicity stunt. Given the fact that "The Right Sector" has really physically realized the "revolution" (without "The Right Sector", the Maidan events would be just about inconsequential pro-EU whining on the street) and they're the only powerful enough yet motivated military formation supporting the current Kiev regime (and also the reliable core of the units that currently terrorize the Russian speakers in the East), it's quite a bold claim.

As you can see, there is some chance that the war in New Russia is going to stop. The conflict may move to Kiev where the villains will just kill each other and peace may return upon that country. It's just a hope but the chance is nonzero.

From a broader perspective, it's remarkable that some people would propose to invite this failed nation – where the arrested minister of interior is the more human side in a conflict with another very important man – to the EU.


  1. I have read that the Right sector has given Kiev 48 hours to sack the head of police and to free their men,if they don't they say they will turn their army on Kiev. "posted on Right sector web page"

  2. On the other hand, the EU already has semi-fascist Hungary. So, would a fully fascist Ukraine in the EU be that much of a change?

    And I keep wondering about Romania and Bulgaria and even Greece. Are they good Franco-Germano Europeans, or are they Moscow's Fifth Column?

  3. It's a sunny day here in Zurich :-)
    Let me ask: how can you be such a climate change denier or believe in conspiracy theories?)

  4. I now read that Yarosh has cancelled the Ultimatum on Kiev. I read an interesting article which asserts that because Russia has refused to make a deal with the Poroshenko government, the US may be planning to put the Right Sector Nazi group in charge of Ukraine.
    I guess the idea is to punish Russia, or maybe to be sure that Ukraine is totally destroyed.

  5. Dear Bob,
    do you honestly think that what you write makes sense or you just hope that you will trick someone smarter than you into thinking that you have some ideas?

    Ukraine would be quite desirable for the EU if it were anything like Hungary, but the thing is Ukraine is a complete mess with a ridiculous GDP a disfunctional army huge ungoverned territories and a rather unfortunate tradition of overthrowing elected leaders and stealing gas. Not to mention the astronomical corruption that is the only thing that is organized in Ukraine.

    As to your second paragraph I really hope you don't spend too much time wondering if Romania is just Moscow's fifth column as no single country hates Russia more than Romania does.

  6. Weather in Switzerland: Good for you. The warm summer temperatures are over in Czechia, meteorologists say that the autumn is de facto starting already. I had a winter jacket today.

    A conspiracy theory is a belief about the working of the world that depends on the assumption of a conspiracy. An example of a conspiracy theory is climate alarmism - the belief that the fossil fuel companies and other producers of CO2 have teamed up to destroy the Earth in the name of the profit. *This* is a conspiracy theory.

    I don't believe in any conspiracy theories. At most, I believe in conspiracy facts once they are proven.

  7. Dear Bob, what reasons make you call present Hungary "semi-fascist"?

  8. [People who are ready to believe this crap must be unbelievably stupid.] Or be driven by ideology (the liberal media) or consumed by lucrative careerism (some in the national labs) or, most significantly, those pursuing Power (the lying politicians and group leaders in the labs).

    A little off topic, and you’ve probably posted on it already, but what is your opinion regarding the significance to the earth’s energy budget of the solar flux’s role in cloud formation?

  9. Klimate Kaos replays the Gulf of Tonkin incident. It is a blank check for propagandistic swill and financial fraud, now with $trillion/year bases.

    Southern California mothballed 2+ GW of San Onofre electrical generating capacity. Windmills and burning algae will sustain increased costs beyond estimation. As Lake Mead drops below historically lowest levels 1) Hoover Dam hydroelectric generators will cease generating. Las Vegas and SouCal go dark. 2) Las Vegas and SouCal go dry, too - no water to allocate.

    Real world millions of people rioting is Officially vastly preferable to risking Pascal's Wager on Enviro-whinerism in 2100. Follow the money.

  10. 1) Hitler declares "Reichjuden" for his professional classes. He can do them after winning the war, or breed them.
    2) Japan does not attack Pearl Harbor.
    3) Germany does not attack Russia.

    4) Europe unifies 50 years earlier. England goes capitalist. No Cold War, Stalin gets stomped or melted when Euro-America wears of idiots and hungers for resources. China evolves capitalist. We still suffer the Kennedys.

    Without Big Science and the military-industrial complex from the Cold War and space race, the planet remains sustainable as the worst of humanity is allowed to starve of its own hand. It's never too late to make hard short term decisions to save the future.

  11. That's what the world looks like from a Moscow perspective. I remember vividly what it looked like from Moscow's perspective in August 1968. 99 workers from Praga factory sent a letter to Comrade Brezhnev begging for a help to fight Prague fascists - and the help did come. That's why I don't live in Prague any more.

  12. Dear Lubos,

    Perhaps I'm misinformed. I'm thinking of Prime Minister Viktor Orban who has been quoted as saying he wants to end liberal democracy in Hungary.

    Of course, that quote appears in the Western media, so it might be a fabrication.

    Are Orban's views being misrepresented? You, who are better informed about Mitteleuropa than I might want to comment on Orban and his supporters.

  13. I am totally disgusted by my own government. First, all the revelations about spying. Then, the claim that they can kill any American citizen they deem to be a terrorist without any sort of trial (which they have actually done), then the string of military adventures: Granada, Serbia, Kosovo, Libya, Egypt, Iraq (twice), Afghanistan, Syria and now Ukraine. DWJ, what is next? Assassination of the Pope?

  14. The Russians should send those 200 trucks north to the engine factory and just move it east along with the key employees and start over.

    They already have 700k refugees to run the factory.
    Just build some quick syrofoam houses to get through the first winter.

    They have lots of gas after all.
    It't a land of opportunity.

    As for grain Canada has lots of it. Just float it north and across the north pole. We don't have enough rails to ship it east west do north is the way to go.

    The rails are too busy derailing leaky tanks of oil on shakey rails to ship food. It true just check the news. ;:;:;:;:;--------)

  15. I have a bit of a problem squaring these assertions that the Maidan movement is Nazi at heart, with the fact that a number of Israeli IDF veterans are part of that movement and provided it combat support.

  16. NotYouAgainAgainAug 18, 2014, 2:55:00 AM

    They teamed up for profit, that's true ;)

  17. Nazi movement- doesn't necessarily mean against Jews. in case of ukraine , "jews" who are blamed for everything are Russians and russian speaking eastern ukraine, who must be eradicated to create "proper" ukraine

  18. It's complete nonsense. Different oil companies etc. are *competing* with each other - they haven't teamed up.

  19. Dear Bob, he said it but there's nothing semi-fascist about the statements. By his "illiberal democracy" he wants to introduce, he explicitly quoted role models like Russia, Turkey, and China which are not accurately described by the word "fascist", either. I don't view these countries as role models for mine but I still have enough resolution to see that they don't deserve the fascist adjective which is why politicians just using them as a role model - a destination in a distance - are not semi-fascist.

  20. Well, in my corner of Greece particularly, this has been an air conditioned summer.Over the fifty years I have been coming for the summer, usually while working only in July , this has been what I call an air conditioned summer. I have used the air conditioning less than ten times since beginning of July and outside temperature went to maximum 36C twice. Most days never went over 32 and by the time they reached it they cooled down to a comfortable 30 with a light breeze. This in contrast to other years hitting days of 38C and 40C. Once , middle of 80s we had 45C for five days (no air conditioning then, after that the market for air conditioners boomed)

    It is over ten years that such a summer happened , and maybe I have seen two or three others like it in my lifetime. I had predicted it ,), since the previous winter was unusually mild, never bellow 7C usually even 10C at night.

    So we do not fit your 2009 profile.

  21. I do not know what kind of benefits may have Big Oil to destroy the planet ... To whom are they going to sell their products? To the zombies?

  22. I didn't make a comparison with 2009 for this part of the world.
    But this summer was horrible in Paris and more generally in France .
    Rain was not so exceptional but insolation and temperatures were (what confirms btw that temperatures at 0 and 1st order are governed by cloud cover).
    Insolation was 40-50% down with regard to average and temperatures 5-8°C down compared to average (talking July and especially August).
    Yesterday was 10°C covered in the morning and 20° covered in the afternoon - a typical august 2014 day. An average august day would be sunny with a temperature interval translated up by some 10°C with regard to the current one.
    If anything it just shows that spatially averaging temperatures over the whole sphere very efficiently destroys any relevant spatial pattern so that the obtained "global" scalar doesn't contain any trace of signal anymore. It is like reducing an infinitely dimensional Hilbert space to 1 D. Not surprising that it is simply to poor to emulate the whole dynamics.
    P.S (private joke)
    Congratulations Lubos. Velvet divorces are the most pleasant ones and I never doubted that you were going to solve this small problem too. I hope you enjoy the result ;)

  23. Fair enough. So, would you you describe it as authoritarian (not a dictatorship, more like EU) and nationalist?

  24. Well, that's a fine question but I think that I wouldn't. Neither.

  25. Let's be absolutely clear. The United States of America is a police state dictatorship. The President and Congress ignore the Constitution continually, and with impunity, especially concerning military actions and war powers. Obama can legally arrest any of us and imprison us -- forever, without ever having a trial or even charging us with a crime. Obama has already murdered 3 American citizens (that we know of, and, he admits to) thousands of miles from a war zone, and, he has not had to justify this in any way. He claims this right to murder us under executive privilege. He has yet to release the underpinning secret laws that supposedly give him these God-like powers, even though he has been ordered to do so by the court. This justification for this police state resides in the constant wars and war powers used to prosecute them. They are buttressed by the sprawling all invasive and intrusive intelligence community that are used to cow us and execute false flags to keep the wars coming, the war party in office, and further reduce what few civil liberties we still have. We must swing the wrecking ball at this whole structure and insist, with whatever means necessary, to return to strict adherence to our Constitution.

  26. The behavior of the Ukrainian government in Kiev continues to be bizarre and paranoid. It keeps throwing up obstacles to finding out the truth about MH17 and to assisting the civilians attacked by Right Sector.

    The International Red Cross has been ready FOR DAYS to assist with getting food and water to the eastern Ukraine which is suffering BECAUSE of the Kiev authority's destruction of electricity and water supplies to several million people there.

    The controlled press in the 'West' doesn't want to report the facts which completely undercut the anti-Russian narrative that they have mindlessly accepted.

  27. Actually you can sell tulips to the zombies :-)

    All you have to do is understanding the math behind navier-stokes equations...

    Ehm... and they are not selling just products, they are selling crudes: don't confuse upstream with downstream

    Finally, many of them make sure to share their "green vision" with consumers in their company mission statements ...

    and they would never try to deny the negative effects of co2:
    sustainability is profitable ;-)