Tuesday, December 02, 2014

UAH AMSU: 2014 probably 3rd or 4th warmest year

Even in the heretical Czech nation, the media recently published articles such as
This year will be the warmest one in the history, U.S. climatologists have calculated
I don't know what they smoke, whether the difference is due to the general satellite-surface deviations, or due to the satellites' inability to see the very vicinity of the poles but the article above won't correspond to the reality as determined by UAH AMSU, a satellite dataset.

A new weather building at UAH

We should be using the lower troposphere (near-surface) UAH dataset v5.6 and supplement the first column with the +0.33 °C anomaly for November 2014 that Roy Spencer revealed an hour ago.

With these numbers, it takes one minute to write a Mathematica code that calculates the annual mean global temperatures.

My results for the years 1979-2014 and sorted, assuming 0.33 °C for December 2014 as well, are:

{1998, 0.42},
{2010, 0.4},
{2014, 0.276},
{2005, 0.262},
{2013, 0.236},
{2002, 0.22},
{2009, 0.212},
{2007, 0.208},
{2003, 0.188},
{2006, 0.188},
{2012, 0.172},
{2011, 0.133},
{2004, 0.11},
{2001, 0.108},
{1991, 0.02},
{1995, 0.014},
{1987, 0.012},
{1988, 0.012},
{1980, -0.007},
{2008, -0.008},
{1990, -0.023},
{1981, -0.042},
{1997, -0.051},
{1999, -0.054},
{2000, -0.058},
{1983, -0.062},
{1996, -0.075},
{1994, -0.108},
{1979, -0.17},
{1989, -0.207},
{1993, -0.244},
{1986, -0.245},
{1982, -0.249},
{1992, -0.288},
{1985, -0.308},
{1984, -0.352}

Apologies for having flooded you. You see that 2014 was the 3rd warmest year after 1998 and 2010 in the UAH records. The numbers came from averaging rounded results of UAH AMSU – averaged to multiples of 0.01 – and I neglected the non-uniform length of the months but that won't make too much difference.

The anomaly 0.276 °C was computed for the December expectation of 0.33 °C. If it will be 0.33 °C + epsilon instead, 0.276 °C will be replaced by 0.276 °C + epsilon/12. So if the temperature anomaly drops by something like 0.1 °C, to 0.23 °C, in December, 2014 may drop to the 4th or lower place.

On the other hand, it is impossible for 2014 to beat 1998 and 2010, the two warmest years, because the temperature would have to jump by 12 times 0.12 °C, the current gap, and the December 2014 anomaly would have to be 1.44+0.33=1.77 °C in December 2014. I think that we don't possess any weapon that could achieve this anomaly for the ongoing month.

Given the certainty that UAH AMSU won't be in the top two, the claims that 2014 will be the warmest (according to NOAA, I guess) sound suspicious.

We may repeat the exercise with the RSS AMSU lower troposphere dataset, my usually preferred source of lower-troposphere data. Its November 2014 reading hasn't been released yet – it will be out today or tomorrow (or the day after tomorrow – I saw this bullšit movie on TV on Sunday night again). But because the October-to-November UAH AMSU change was by –0.04 °C, a minor cooling, I think it's sensible to estimate the same cooling for RSS AMSU which means that my expected RSS AMSU anomaly for November 2014 is +0.23 °C. I fill the same number for December, too.

(Update Wednesday December 3rd: the final figure was +0.246 °C, a great estimate of mine. The estimated average for RSS AMSU 2014 announced anywhere in this blog post should be raised by 0.016 / 6 = 0.003 °C, a negligible amount.)

The graphs (top is UAH, bottom is RSS) are "similar" but the differences are substantial, too. You may see that according to RSS AMSU, 2014 was much cooler if compared to the other years. The RSS AMSU ranking looks like this:

{1998, 0.55},
{2010, 0.47},
{2005, 0.33},
{2003, 0.32},
{2002, 0.315},
{2007, 0.254},
{2014, 0.25},
{2001, 0.247},
{2006, 0.231},
{2009, 0.22},
{2013, 0.217},
{2004, 0.201},
{2012, 0.185},
{1995, 0.159},
{2011, 0.141},
{1999, 0.105},
{1997, 0.102},
{1987, 0.099},
{2000, 0.093},
{1991, 0.081},
{1990, 0.074},
{1988, 0.066},
{1983, 0.066},
{1996, 0.047},
{2008, 0.044},
{1994, 0.028},
{1981, 0.022},
{1980, 0.015},
{1979, -0.094},
{1993, -0.118},
{1989, -0.12},
{1986, -0.139},
{1982, -0.172},
{1992, -0.179},
{1984, -0.224},
{1985, -0.261}

You see that RSS AMSU will claim that 2014 was its 7th warmest year, with a substantial chance to get to the 6th place or drop to 8th or 9th place, but probably not further. But according to RSS AMSU, it's virtually impossible for 2014 to get to the top 5.

In particular, it seems that 2014 was about 0.3 °C cooler than 1998, the warmest year according to both satellite datasets. We've been promised another warmest year for almost two decades but it is still not arriving – and in fact, the gap that separates us from the record holder is equal to 1/2 or 1/3 of the 20th century global warming!

Newspaper articles about the "warmest year 2014" seem to be really detached from this most reliable technology that mankind has to measure the Earth's surface temperatures. Journalists writing these "stories" deserve to be lynched. Let's hope that Loretta Lynch (nominated to be the new U.S. Attorney General) still remembers how to do it...

1. After Christ returns, His first and foremost duty is to bed his 700,000 wives - for reproduction, not pleasure. Political climatology (Klimate Kaos, the Carbon Tax on Everything) walks in His shoes - especially the screwing.

http://www.tldm.org/News11/DevastatingDeclineReligiousOrders.htm

The growing spate of deniers must be staunched.

2. I am a gentle man, Shannon, but sometimes a rather stupid one.
By the way, it is painful to think of you as an anti-simite. Are you?

3. Oh! Unexpected! Thanks, Gene. But there's no need for that — it's all good knockabout fun. I appreciate the gesture though. Indeed I think I might have got a little overly robust there myself. But as I said, my heart really wasn't in it — I generally get my all hating done early so that I can get on and enjoy the rest of the day in serene contemplation with a nice empty bile bag. :)

4. No problem. It's all water under the bridge. There are no hard feelings on my part. :)

5. yeah...the cheap, cheating bastard sabin stole the idea for a polio vacine from that other cheating bastard jew koans salk...oh yeah...
"shannon" just cause youre mom was into kosher meat is no reason to hate...itmakes you look stupid, which is difficult to correct. Obviously your forbearers didn't breed for intelligence.
dont tell me...equitorial guina?

6. Well, dear Gene, the whole anti-semite suspicion is a joke and it is racist to suspect someone of being anti-semite.

7. You is so funny ;-)

9. Your message implies that all the non jew physicists and mathematicians count for nothing, or their work is much less important than the jews'. Thank you for them Scooby, and for Science.

10. ''Overall the Jews are no more intelligent than the pygmies'' - in a PC dream, yes, maybe. In the real world - no. According to Richard Lynn, one of the foremost experts on psychology of intelligence, pygmies have an average IQ of 56. Ashkenazi Jews have an average IQ of 107.5 (Lynn, 2004). And many authors (Murray, 2007) have higher scores for Ashkenazi Jews

11. I guess he stole his jokes too?

12. truly the post of an imbecile. at lookouts goebbels had reason to hate the god of the jews...club footed as he was....whats your excuse.
really? you are so bereft of reasoning that you make the argument you just did, in front of strangers, who, until now, had no reason to be aware of your stupidity.
his message implies nothing of what you, incorrectly, inferred; the fact that you feel comfortable posting such drivel does you no good.

13. no...its because they steal their ideas from others...the thieving scheming jew...too smart for the entire world, save for people like shannon, apart in their insight...gifted by god with the ability to see true reality...instead of that which is clear to to the rest of us.
the jews count on this...they depend on the masses' unwillingness to see the perfidy of the jew.

14. NASA-GISS have another version of global average (which you have discussed elsewhere on your blog). I haven't gone into all the details of how each climate centre calculates their averages, but this comparative graph http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/9/ shows quite a spread between different climate datasets, especially for more recent years where we would expect better estimates. That the global estimates seem to be diverging is quite puzzling! The GISS data for that plot is here http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt , and has 1998 in equal 4th place, with 2005 and 2010 as the hottest years. If 2014 remains 'averagely hot', then it could be the all-time hottest (though seems pretty cold right now :) ). It seems these are ground-station based data. I know you have discussed this table of data before, but would you say the GISS data is flawed, as compared to UAH, or one is more reliable than the other? Or are they just measuring slightly different things? The wiki page on UAH data http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset lists a long set of 'problems', most of which have been 'solved', but it seems most datasets are subject to on-going corrections. I guess one conclusion is that the underlying trend is not very strong...

15. His point was simply that 25% of the Fields medal winners were Jews, which is much higher than their percentage of the general population. He certainly didn't say that the remaining 75% "count for nothing".

16. Thanks, I don't know what to think about the causes of the divergence. There is probably some very particular explanation why the satellites deviate from the ground-based measurements. And the divergence of the individual satellite datasets and individual gound-based ones may be worrisome, too.

17. David,

Everybody steals jokes! Actually I think that's a little unfair. Rather, we're all victims — jokes are memetic viral infections. Happy ones though.

And Ali G wasn't the first Jew in this game.

Here's something from circa 40 years ago that I doubt would get into any mainstream publication today: The Collected Bulletins Of President Idi Amin by Alan Coren* in Punch magazine.

Enjoy! :)

* In 1966, he became Punch's literary editor, and went on to become deputy editor in 1969 and editor in 1978. He remained as editor until 1987 when the circulation began to decline. Unsurprisingly, during the week in which he took over the editorship, the Jewish Chronicle published a profile of him. His response was to rush around the office, waving a copy of the relevant edition, saying: "This is ridiculous - I haven't been Jewish for years!"

18. John - You're quite right about jokes, but some of us seek out these infections.
I not only steal them, but hoard them as well, waiting for the proper occassion.
I waited for over twenty years to be asked if I believe in marriage. It finally happened at a dinner party. By sheer luck the questioner was a woman, and my wife, knowing what was coming, was horror stricken.
Of course, I replied "Believe in it? Hell, I've *seen* it!"

19. RAF III,

Your wife sounds just like mine. :)

You can smell the rising panic. The frantic deployment of diversionary tactics. I don't know which is more fun: winding her up or actually throwing the bun. Usually I like to do both and take full advantage when these happy opportunities present themselves.

But I don't always get my way. Sometimes she wins and the moment passes.

Usually all goes off well enough though, but do you know, very occasionally we never get invited back! Yes, very strange. I know that's difficult to believe but some people are really hard to figure out. :)

Meanwhile, keep playing those percentages!

P.S. I've put that one of yours in my back pocket. :)

20. Completely OT:

I haven't the least interest in food apart from eating it, so it's a complete mystery to me why I find her programmes so incredibly distracting, yet most of the time I can never remember a word she says. There are one or two exceptions though. :)

21. Haha ! She is more sexual than sensual. I think she looks like an inflatable doll, doesn't she? By the way I read once that her husband tried to choke her in a restaurant once... :-) maybe he was only trying to pull the cork. He said they "drifted away" from each other... this could the proof she *is* inflatable.

22. But Shannon I like 'em a little pneumatic! :)

I think she might be about the limit though. But whatever, she's definitely a natural born p****-teaser.

BTW: "She is more sexual than sensual." — that distinction is far too subtle for me. :)

23. I'd like to try her food, it looks yummy. You would like to roll in her food with her, right? Lol :-)

24. In 1948, Linus Pauling suggested that many proteins take the form of an alpha helix.

25. Hmmm, still using "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion" as your bed-time reading, I see.

27. any luck to mention my research?

http://www.itia.ntua.gr/en/docinfo/1486/

28. No, Gordon, actually, these days I am reading "Le Crépuscule d’une Idole - the Freudian fantasy" written by the French philosopher Michel Onfray. Quite interesting to see how deep the lie went ;-). I have never read the book you are talking about, is it good?

29. Well, I can top that!

I've been reading the latest edition of the local bus timetable. It's superbly well written.

But I suppose if I had a criticism I'd have to say it's a shade thin on plot.

30. They stopped going after the men in the white hoods (KKK) when they realized they were fellow democrats.

31. A Russian billionaire to the rescue, bought the medal for \$4M and gave it back to Watson:

“James Watson is one of the greatest biologists in the history of mankind and his award for the discovery of DNA structure must belong to him."

www.rferl.org/content/russian-tycoon-usmanov-to-give-back-watsons-nobel-medal/26734562.html

32. Right, it was discussed 6 days ago in the 2nd part of

http://motls.blogspot.com/2014/12/mits-terror-against-walter-lewins.html?m=1

33. It is harder to manipulate the satellite numbers than the ground numbers. The latter are subject to so many adjustments and fudge factors as to render them worthless. Further, there ground numbers sample a non-random set of points that do not include some important terrestrial environments. Like the oceans.