Friday, January 16, 2015

Papers by BICEP2, Keck, and Planck out soon

...and other news from the CMB Minnesota conference...
Off-topic: I won't post a new blog post on the "warmest 2014" measurements and claims. See an updated blog post on RRSS AMSU for a few new comments and a graph on the GISS and NCDC results.
The Twitter account of Kevork Abazajian of UC Irvine seems to be the most useful public source where you may learn about some of the most important announcements made at a recent CMB+Pol conference in Minnesota (January 14th-16th, 2015).

Is BICEP2's more powerful successor still seeing the gravitational waves?

Here are the tweets:

Charles Lawrence (Planck): Planck ultimate results will be out in weeks. CMB lensing potential was detected to 40σ by Planck. Measurement by Planck of \(1s\to 2s\) H transition from CMB has uncertainties 5.5 times better than the laboratory. Planck is not systematics limited on any angular scale. Future space mission needs 10-20x less noise. Try & find a foreground-free spot for polarization experiments (snark intended)-Planck 857 GHz map.

100, 143, 217, 353 GHz polarization data won't be released in the 2015 @Planck data release.

Anthony Chalinor (Planck): Temperature to polarization leakage in upcoming data release is not corrected for, so users beware. Planck finds that adding (light) massive sterile neutrinos does nothing to reduce their tension with the lensing+BAO data.

Francois Boulanger (Planck): B-mode signal will not be detected without the removal of dust polarization from Planck with high accuracy and confidence. Dust SED does not vary strongly across the sky, which was surprising.

Matthieu Tristram (Planck): Planck finds no region where the dust polarization can be neglected compared to primordial B-modes. (LM: This seems like a sloppy blanket statement to me: whether one is negligible depends on \(\ell\), doesn't it?)

Sabino Matarrese (Planck): Starobinsky \(\varphi^2\) & exponential inflationary potential are most favored by the Planck primordial power spectrum reconstructions. No evidence of a primordial isocurvature non-Gaussianity is seen in Planck 2015. \(f_{NL} \sim 0.01\) non-Gaussianity of standard inflation will take LSS (halo bias & bispectrum) + 21 cm + CMB.

Matias Zaldarriaga (theorist): if high \(r\) is detected, then something other that \(N\) \(e\)-folds is setting the inflationary dynamics. He is effectively giving \(r\lt 0.01\) as a theory-favored upper limit from inflation on the tensor amplitude.

Abazajian @Kevaba: cosmology has the highest experimental sensitivity to neutrino mass and is forecast to maintain that position.

Lorenzo Sorbo (theorist): non-boring tensors! Parity violation is detectable at 9σ. Parity violations can produce a differing amount of left- and right-handed gravitons, and produce non-zero TB and EB modes. Cosmological matter power spectrum gives neutrino mass constraints because neutrinos transition from radiation like to matter like. Shape and amplitude of power spectrum gives a handle on the neutrino mass. @Planck gives \(0.3\eV\) limits, the oscillation scale. \(dP_k/P_k\sim 1\%\) levels on matter power spec gives \(20\meV\) constraints on neutrino masses. CMB-S4 experiments alone should be able to get down to the \(34\meV\) level, \(15\meV\) level with BAO measurements.

Olivier Doré (SPHEREx): SPHEREx mission for all-sky spectra for every 6.2" pixels to \(R=40\) in NIR. Quite a legacy! SPHEREx will detect with high significance single-field inflation non-Gaussianity. SPHEREx will detect *every* quasar in the Universe, approximately 1.5 million. SPHEREx astroph: 1412.4872.

The @SPTelescope polarization main survey patch of 500 square degrees is currently underway.

Bradford Benson (SPTpol): preliminary results presentation of SPTpol BB modes detection with 5σ level of lensing scale modes. SPT-3G will have 16,000 3-band multichroic pixels with 3 720 mm 4K alumina lenses w/ 3x FOV. SPT-3G will have 150σ detection of lensing B modes & forecast \(\sigma(N_{eff})=0.06\).

Suzanne Staggs (ACTpol): ACTpol has detected CMB lensing B modes at 4.5σ. neutrinos & dark energy forecasts for Advanced ACT. Exact numbers are available in de Bernardis poster.

Nils Halverson (POLARBEAR): POLARBEAR rejects "no lensing B-modes" at 4.2σ. Simons Array of 3x POLARBEAR-2 forecast sensitivity \(\sigma(m_\nu)=40\meV\), \(\sigma(r=0.1)=\sigma(ns)=0.006\).

Paolo de Bernardis poster: Advanced ACT plus BOSS ultimate sensitivity \(96\meV\) for \(ν\) mass.

John Kováč (BICEP2): BICEP2 sees excess power at 1 degree scale in BB.
BICEP2 + Planck + Keck Array analysis SOON. Cannot be shown yet.
Keck Array is 2.5 times more sensitive than BICEP2. The analysis is underway. With the dataset we had back when we published, we were only able to exclude dust at 1.7 sigma. No departure of SED from simple scaling law is very good news.
At end of Kováč's talk: BICEP2 + Planck out by end of month. Those + Keck Array 150 GHz by spring 2015. All of this + other Keck frequencies will be released by the end of 2015.
Aurelien Fraisse (SPIDER): SPIDER 6 detector, 2 frequencies flight under way, & foreground limited, not systematics. \(r \lt 0.03\) at 3σ, low foreground.

Al Kogut (PIPER): PIPER will be doing almost all of sky B modes at multifrequency, 8 flights get to \(r \lt 0.007\) (2σ).

CLASS will be able to measure \(r = 0.01\), even with galactic foregrounds. Site construction underway.

Lloyd Knox (theorist): detecting relic neutrinos is possible via gravitational effects in the CMB. The dynamics of the phase shift in acoustic peaks results from variation in \(N_{eff}\).

Uroš Seljak (theorist): multiple deflections in the weak lensing signal is important when the convergence sensitivity gets to ~1% level. Effects not at 10% in CLκκ, more like 1%. Krause et al. is in preparation. Delensing of B-modes has a theoretical limit at 0.2 μK arcmin or \(r=2\times 10^{-5}\).

Carlo Contaldi: little was known about the dust polarization before BICEP2 & Planck. SPIDER = 6 x BICEP2 - 30 km of atmosphere and less exposure time. Detailed modeling of the dust polarization took place. Large B field uncertainty, input was taken from starlight observations. Full 3D models for the "southern patch" including the BICEP2 window reproduce the WMAP 23 GHz channel. Small & large scales great, not interm.

Raphael Flauger (theorist): BICEP2 BB + Planck 353 GHz give no evidence for primordial B modes. Plus, the sun sets outside.


  1. A pretty dense package of info.

    "dPk/Pk∼1% levels on matter power spec gives 20meV constraints on neutrino masses."

    This is some theoretical sensitivity rather than what can be done with current Planck data?

    The word "lensing" always means foreground dust effects on B-modes here?

    A bit hard to read this when I suddenly make sense of some term and have to start from the beginning :)

  2. Dear JollyJoker, be assured I have these and similar questions, too. But this report is still cheaper for you than an air ticket to Minnesota, isn't it? ;-)

  3. Observation to a theorist is like water to a witch. Tch, tch. Vacuum is demonstrably acentric toward hadrons but not photons. if physics spends a $billion and a decade getting there, rather than 24 hours in existing apparatus, it still gets there.

  4. dP/P=0.01 leading to 20meV neutrino mass limit is something like the theoretical estimate - requirement of what precision you need from galaxy clustering in order to measure masses to this level. Massive neutrinos, to a first approximation, uniformly suppress the power spectrum at small scales (high k).

    The word 'lensing' was indeed used in a few separate but interrelated contexts. 'CMB lensing' - the thing Planck measured at 40 sigma - refers to small shifts in CMB hot and cold spots due to lensing of photons by the intervening large-scale structure; this is considered a very elegant and powerful tool since the redshift of the source is precisely known *and* is large - it is z=1100, recombination era. Further down, 'lensing B-modes' refers to conversion of E-mode polarization into B-modes due to lensing of CMB photons; these lensing B-modes are of course a contaminant for primordial B-modes from inflation. Hence proposals for 'delensing', or removing this contaminant somehow, which was the last appearance of this very popular word....

  5. Karle, please don't be silly, and if you have to be silly, please at least don't laugh as a completely fucked-up idiot.

    Everyone who follows this thing at least infinitesimally knows that the crown jumped within minute after Zeman's criticism and it was undoubtedly a consequence of Zeman's comment. Even all the journalists know that. Just check the damn graphs.

    The ability of the government to influence such rates isn't specific for fiat currencies - such drops of any variable or rate might be made in any other system, too. Fiat currency system is the only one that provides us with a framework where such manipulations may be avoided when rules are strictly adhered to. In all other systems, one can't even define the difference between influencing and not influencing things.

  6. Your spelling is just terrible, Dilaton. Even if English is not your native tongue you owe it to your readers to do much better.

  7. Thanks for covering and collecting my tweets in this summary of the workshop. The few lines attributed to Sorbo are actually from my talk. I retweeted tweets from my talk after tweeting about Sorbonne, a bit out of order since I couldn't retweet my talk while speaking. This portion and following is from what I said: "Cosmological matter power spectrum gives neutrino mass..." This is because of my tweet misorder, not your fault!

  8. You are right, Shannon, and I understand the difference between our immigrant’s attitudes and your immigrants attitudes. Part of the cause is that we, the US, does not have a millennium of cultural and language identity that sets us apart from all the others. We are a milieu (nice French word, no?) and it is much easier for a fresh immigrant to feel at home here because we all are foreigners.
    I love the French, your food, your wine, your splendid culture and, especially, your Paris, the most beautiful city on earth. In addition, France played a key role in helping us to defeat the English and gain our independence. That is a debt that can never be repaid.
    Obviously, integration is more difficult for your country and the cultural gulf between you and your muslims is greater that the difference between us and our new arrivals, for the most part.
    All I can do is wish you well and hope that people of good will, such as you, can see France through all this.

  9. What an exciting mystery this is! I just can’t wait to read the next chapter.


  11. Haha! I knew there'd be a nice explanation for it!

    Thanks for clearing the mystery up, Luboš. :)

    P.S. I remember that one of Gauss too, now that you mention it.

  12. Spelling errors are a means of expressing my being upset and angry in such cases ...

  13. I downloaded SPHEREx PDF and was very excited about what I read. At the end, they say it is not approved yet and if it gets approved, it is scheduled for 2020. Sigh!

  14. I have always been partial to the Feynman stamp:
    There is also one of von Neumann

  15. Thanks for your reporting! This particular clarification is pretty clear but I expect there may be other puzzles in this compressed summary. ;-)

  16. He was always of the left, but I like this one of his. Entertaining too. Nice speech. Kinda topical. :)

    Christopher Hitchens* on free speech (21 mins):

    * Not to be confused with his brother, Peter, who is an ex-Trotskyite ex-atheist and now an ardent traditional conservative and Christian.

  17. The president is able to influence the central's bank policy in long periods.

    Your idea of president being able to influence the markets on a day-to-day basis is just ridiculous.

    On the other hand the governor of CNB made a comment about ___a day sooner___ and that is the person who is able to make decisions that have immediate impact.

    CNB have not been actively intervening for quite some time and Zeman's "action" was just an embarrassing attempt to gain little cheap popularity...

    Some my advice to you is to wake up and look outside because you are clearly living in a wierd dream...

  18. Nice speech John ;-)
    I'm curious: do you (or any other TRF readers)think that the French anti niqab law (integral veil for women) in public places (street, schools, shops, work places etc) is the right way to go ? It is difficult to apply and the police, the boss, pupils parents, teachers, have to be courageous to enforce it. However, the majority of muslim women seem ok with the law.

  19. Our muslims immigrants do not feel French, they hate France and Europe too, ...

    One thing you could do is wait for Mark Steyn's vision of a possible future to come true; it involves evacuating the Muslims to US aircraft carriers standing off the coast of Europe, while, on land, US Marines would be protecting the evacuation corridors. I think he must be underestimating the number of Muslims in Europe. :-)

    What's this thing of yours with "unitedstatian"? There's no such word. There's a Spanish word estadounidense, but Google translates it into French as Etats-Unis, which is not at all the same thing, is it?

    In my (limited) experience, it's not common for Latin Americans to call us estadounidenses. Most common is americanos, followed by norteamericanos (which, BTW, misses the fact that Mexico is in North America).

  20. Firing the banking board *is* a long-term decision but it is made at a particular moment, and the probability that it increases is also made at a particular moment.

    The product of your stupidity, aggressiveness, and repetitiveness has exceeded the bound for you to be blacklisted, good bye.

  21. we all are foreigners.

    No, we're not. My ancestors came from six European countries. I didn't.

    the cultural gulf between you and your
    muslims is greater that the difference between us and our new arrivals,
    for the most part.

    I don't think so. How could our culture, which is loose or permissive, be nearer to those of the Middle East than the European cultures?

  22. the muslims will outnumber the indigenous white population in, at most, 30 years

    Nonsense. Get the current population figures and do the math.

  23. My preliminary graph based on Vital numbers says that photons wave properties are in 5 dimensions (mostly important dimensions) and only in one dimension there is matter properties. I am combining it with others graph got other methods to get algoritms to PHOTONS “shots” (I am preparing math mechanism for that) into vacuum (there is boiling in vacuum — creating and destroying particles, there is enough energy for “changing” so elementary particles like Photons into electron-positron pairs,
    scientific article below link regarding light particles of supernova SN 1987A arrived 4.7 hours later than expected, say there is
    possible) then “changing” into electron-positron pairs and they anhilate therefore I am calling it Cold fusion reactor because this event is at room temperature.

    Aim of my work is use it for cold fusion reactor based on vacuum polarisation during this phenomenon photons break down to electron-positron pairs they split and produce energy.

    MY COLD FUSION reactor preliminary CALCULATIONS ↓
    based on Photoelectric effect

    Mapping of Photons v.01 comparison to NASA photo of cluster from which X-Ray possible produced by sterile neutrinos were observed

    Electron magnetic field (looks like that of bar magnet 8 ) two
    different methods and same result

    Based on new kind fractal that I developed RTDG (Reflection Three Dimensional Graphical), there is 3d CAD scena only with one core object that reflections only one same pattern or part of it, that serves to n-dimensional enlargement.

    3d CAD rendering script/ simulation for computation physics of light near perfect realism

    (not presentation for scientific purpose yet !!)

  24. Dear Shannon,

    "I'm curious: do you ... think that the French anti niqab law in public places ... is the right way to go?"

    For me that has overtones of the notorious question: "Have you stopped beating your wife?".

    It is also reminiscent of the that old Irish joke about the Englishman who found himself lost in the back lanes of beyond and stopped to ask directions to Limerick, to which country bumpkin, Paddy, replied helpfully, "Well now, to be sure, I wouldn't start from here ..." Incidentally, I think a lot of these jokes stemmed from a misunderstanding of Paddy's delightfully impish, and sometimes sarcastic, sense of humour and mistook it for idiocy. So who was the idiot? :)

    Anyway, back to your question.

    My answer is yes and no.

    In short, given that you are where you are now: yes, undoubtedly. But given that you should never have 'got lost' in the first place: no.

    A slightly longer version. Pisslam is wholly incompatible with Western civilisation. Not only that, it is permanently at war with the West whether we understand that or not. So anything done to crush and expunge it is good. I consider these ostensible intrusions on personal freedom simply the exercise of 'Emergency Powers' needed for the duration. You/we need to do a lot more than that though, and since I'm pretty sure you well know by now where I stand on this war there's no need for me to repeat it here.

    Incidentally, while you/we are still faffing around deciding exactly how we are ultimately going to eliminate the problem, European countries need immediately to disenfranchise every single muslime (at best merely dormant terrorists and facilitators) within their borders. 'They' are not 'us' and never can be. Banning that hideously alien garb is only a VERY small start.

    Now tell me you're delighted with my answer, s'il vous plaît. :)

  25. - an interesting speculation. Does it make sense to you?

  26. Merci John for your answer. I suspect you would have liked your country to have the balls of such an anti niqab law ;-)... One has to start somewhere and the law is our first and only vertuous way to do it, don't you think? One has to start somewhere, in the right place, like your rosbif on his way to Limerick :-).

    If you were French you would belong to the active group "les identitaires" and vote Front National and you would follow Aymeric Chauprade who works for the FN (although Marine Le Pen says they disagree), but I suspect he is the bait to get the jewish vote. Fair enough. Some young identitaires have announced they are ready to fight... It's romantic. However I suspect young people have a virtual life only ;-). They should create a virtual war game in a France conquered by the muzz where the identitaires explode them in the streets and avenues of Paris, or in Notre Dame mosque.... ;-)

    Seriously I think we need to get out of the Schengen agreement which allows illegal immigrants everywhere in Europe. We need to start by closing down our frontiers and be allowed to choose who can enter our territory. We must enforce the anti niqab law everywhere.
    In Rome do as Romans. If they refuse they either go to prison or they are sent back to their country of origin, their land of Islam. Voilà.

  27. Not much - the loans in Swiss francs are such a small percentage that the increase doesn't matter. And note that the jump of the Swiss franc really means a drop of the euro - which is more important for the loans - at the same moment, so even most of the small effect is compensated by something else, if not overcompensated.

    From a different perspective, I don't think that the Swiss authorities are "more motivated than the average" to hurt Russia or Putin. Russia and Putin didn't play any significant role in their decisions about the policy.

  28. Refusal to respond on point is annoying. Fiat currencies may not be fail safe, but seem to be the best arrangement possible now.

  29. good luck engaging with angel lobos....

  30. I dont understand why the concept of ordered sensible predictable policies is so difficult to comprehend. really.

  31. thanks lubos

  32. I didn't cry when Ceasers Palace got in trouble, Lubos, so why would I care about this casino? They are all run by mobs that have no moral compass.

    And this being a zero-sum game, there are some really happy campers on the winning side of this transaction.

    The question is, who was surprised about the SNB move and who are the happy campers?

    This question can easily be answered by knowing the names of the insiders with prior knowledge of this monumental event, who are now out shopping for island palaces and Bentley this week.

  33. You can't overlook the problem of Russian capital flight into Switzerland, Lubos. After Cyprus, Russians wanted no part of the euro or USD, thus causing them to park their money into Swiss banks.

    That's why I still can't help but think that this Swiss de-linking has to do (amongst other issues) with Russia and China making a definite break from the dollar hegemony. TPTB ran into an unforeseen snag and are starting to move the their pawns around in different configurations on the board. This latest move involving the SNB is just part of it. Payback may turn out to be dangerous, though.

  34. And these are supposed to be smart people. All of whom were making a bet that tiny Switzerland could buy infinite amounts of Euro confetti coming out of Draghi's fire hydrant for the foreseeable future.

    I doubt over educated central bankers will ever wake up and realize that regulators are clueless and "macro prudential policies" are ineffective when their policies continue to provide free money to governments and corporations at the expense of the saver and bond investor.

    If these polices continue, as looks likely, bet heavy on more deflation, more blowups, more volatility, and large market corrections. Global routs always begin with small events which cascade. This one may not be the one, but it is coming.

  35. Already done. Your attempt to hide your head in the sand does not change the facts.

    See, for example, Britain:

  36. This all started with the words “Too Big Too Fail”. There were major flaws in the economic systems and politicians never had the foresight or the courage to deal with the real issues.

    Brussels is a machine that is hell bent on their Federal idea. There are too many large interests in Brussels on a very generous gravy train that they are not going to give up without a fight. Unfortunately, this means that the average EU citizen is going to suffer for their greed and failure. The EU has decided there will be no change until they crash and burn, this is the course they are now on.

    Commodity prices are collapsing which will cause issues in emerging markets and is a warning that the economy is turning down already. This will cause an event in Europe which will cause big money to panic into USD bonds which is standard operating behavior. Demand for the USD will cause it to rise and then the 5 trillion in cheap loans throughout the world will start to explode. This will be worse than 2008 and longer. The bond market is in a bubble and then money will move into equities. There will be many sovereign defaults and about 5 years of deflation will follow with very high unemployment. They should have let the markets correct back in 2008 but now the situation many time worse.

  37. Nowhere is price deflation evident at the moment. Even fuel has nothing to do with deflation and is mostly a supply and demand issue. Homes still high, food still high, healthcare still high,electronics still the same price as last year. Cars are more expensive. There is absolutely no evidence of lower prices for the consumer anywhere, nor IMO will there be. Too many hands on the levers to allow it.

  38. All prices are matters of supply and demand. Except things like the minimum wage, where statutes prohibit markets from clearing at appropriate prices.

    I think what you *mean* to say, is that oil price decreases mainly reflect a rightward shift of the supply curve and thus represents "good deflation" whereas other prices are increasing due to right rightward shifts of their demand curves, and thus those represent bad inflation.

  39. No, not "already done," and no, I'm not trying to hide my head in the sand. I fear the possibility that Europe will be Islamized.

    I just think your idea of Muslim majority within "at most, 30 years" is so far out of line with what serious researchers say that it deserves the name "nonsense." Pew Research says that the UK was 4.6% in 2010, and projects 8.2% in 2030. Your source projects 15%.

    Your source contradicts itself. Its math requires the UK non-Muslim population to increase, but it says that the UK is below replacement rate.

  40. I have to apologize in part. Your source does not assume that the non-Muslim population grows; he assumes that it shrinks.

  41. Great shared article..