Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Aspects of Merkel's suicidal policies

While the Central European ex-socialist countries are presented as villains by most of the Western "mainstream" media and e.g. Hollande's suggestions that we could very well be expelled from the EU for having a different opinion are being amplified by those not-so-independent sources of information, the opinions about the migrant wave and the role of top Western European leaders such as Merkel and Hollande are very, very different in countries like Czechia.

Recently, Angela Merkel has dedicated much more energy to selfies with illegal migrants than to work for her Vaterland. Click the image for hundreds of other selfies. 1.6 billion folks with their cameras are still waiting for their selfies – and to be fed and entertained by the German government for the rest of their life.

The Schengen area – the European Union's unified visa zone – seems to be failing. Ten days ago, Politico.EU presented their list of politicians who are responsible for the bad condition of the Schengen area. It's Assad, Orbán, Erdogan, Bush 43, Obama, Cameron, smugglers, Le Pen, Ayoub el-Khazani, Nemmouche, Afewerki, and al-Baghdadi. Some of the contestants' presence makes sense, others (e.g. Orbán and Le Pen in particular) are absolutely preposterous.

But, as Breitbart implicitly points out, the weirdest aspect of the list is who is missing. According to almost everyone in my country, the #1 culprit of the migrant wave and all of its disturbing consequences is Angela Merkel.

She has been welcoming and is still welcoming to the "refugees". Because Arabs who have thrown their documents away can't be easily distinguished from other Arabs, her welcoming attitude unavoidably applies to all of migrants, especially the economic ones. Her single most far-reaching decision was one on August 24th when she invited all Syrians to Germany. Germany decided to ignore or "unilaterally invalidate" all the laws and treaties (Schengen, Dublin 1, Dublin 2) that were agreed in order to prevent such dramatic events.

More than a month later, some Germans are beginning to restore their sanity. Merkel's approval rate decreased to 49% and she dropped from the 1st place to the 4th place among the "most important German politicians" according to an influential new poll.

Well, the relevant question has to be formulated very differently in Czechia. Her approval rate would be close to zero so no one is asking about that question. Instead, a magazine ran a poll whether legal action against Merkel should be taken for her "inviting letter" (the "inviting letter" was a notorious letter of hardcore & treacherous Czechoslovak communists sent to Moscow before the 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion which is why people like to suggest this analogy). I think that about 80% of the Czech readers answered "Yes, prosecute Merkel".

(I can't find the poll now. Maybe I have misread. Tyden.cz (Week CZ) ran a poll where 79% readers said that she should be fired for her contribution to the migrant crisis.)

One week ago, ex-president Václav Klaus indirectly defended Merkel against those charges. He agreed with a female fan who wrote him that Merkel has violated certain things but he emphasized that the law and justice isn't something global or universal. It's an expression of people's values, desires, and interests, and it should always be defined and enforced by a meaningful and coherent enough group of people – for example a nation. Nothing like that exists at the international level which is why it's misguided to "internationally sue" people for such controversial acts.

I mentioned this characteristically classically liberal attitude by Klaus in order to show that he would in no way support any idea that is "radical enough". He's ready to disagree with such ideas even if a majority of the Czechs would agree with them. People who say that Klaus is a pure populist should notice such things.

Quite generally, I think that there is way too much infighting in Czechia – and in the Visegrád Group – especially if one realizes how relatively uniform our opinions are. From a pro-migration Western European viewpoint, the opinions of all of our politicians have to look almost identical. However, the Czech opposition (e.g. the center-right ODS that I have voted for in almost all elections, and plan to do so in the future) constantly criticizes the government for its insufficient resistance towards Western Europe's attempts to enslave us again, to strip us of our sovereignty.

I am actually not sure whether an ODS government would be "tougher". My experience is that the recent ODS-led, center-right governments were about equally submissive vis-a-vis the pressures from the Western Europe as the social democratic governments.

Also, while Viktor Orbán is often praised by politicians and pundits in Czechia, he's been criticized by the equally anti-immigration Czech president Miloš Zeman because Zeman prefers to send troops to the border instead of building fences. Troops may be easily ordered to return home but it's harder to demolish fences, Zeman argues. Well, I think that this criticism is unnecessary. First of all, it is not so hard to remove fences. Second, fences may sometimes be the most effective solution. Third, Orbán has sent troops to the border, too. ;-)

There are other examples of infighting, too. I view this infighting within Czechia and within the Visegrád Group as unbelievably myopic. Czechia or the Visegrád Group has limited tools and chances to defend itself against the pressures from its richer – and more numerous – countries in Western Europe that would favor to transform our demographics against our will. But if we won't be sufficiently united, our abilities to defend our interests and points of view are guaranteed to be even weaker. Much weaker.

The migration wave may be such a serious, perhaps existential problem for our countries and the region – and for Europe, much of which fails to realize the risks – that this is an ideal moment to resolve many disputes about much smaller issues. For example, Slovakia and Hungary are still arguing about the Gabčíkovo Dam (a Czechoslovak-Hungarian 1977 Gabčíkovo-Nagymarosz Dam project that the Hungarians wanted to stop after 1989 but the Slovaks wanted to continue – and it was ultimately completed as the Plan C limited Gabčíkovo-only Dam; incidentally, the 90% Hungarian town of Gabčíkovo in Slovakia had a referendum last month and 97% of the 5,000 citizens said that they didn't want any migrants in their town).

Also, Babiš should offer to postpone the introduction of his electronic sales registration project to the moment after the next elections – and avoid an expected showdown with the opposition in the Parliament.

On Thursday, our finance minister, the billionaire Andrej Babiš, participated in the fiery TV debate hosted by Ms Jílková. It was about the migrant issues only and allowed me to forget about all of his conflicts of interest and desires to spy on the entrepreneurs and all the other controversial things. The result is that I simply agreed with 95% of what he had to say, too. (His inaccurate data about the Turks in Berlin etc. were among the 5%.)

He said that Merkel is committing economic suicide (EN), especially because she promises EUR 670 a month to every migrant. Also, he compared the migrant wave to a leaking water pipeline in your apartment. The holes are Lesbos and Kos (he was showing these Greek islands near Turkey on the map) and it's necessary to plug the holes as quickly as possible. Instead, what Merkel et al. are doing is to distribute the water all over the apartment. The height of the water column must be the same in the kitchen, the bedroom, and the living room, too. ;-) A good metaphor.

The rich Western Europeans think differently than the post-socialist Europeans partly because they are richer and they can genuinely afford to subsidize a greater number of unemployed migrants (and the cops who will be needed to supervise them and many others). So a part of the big gap between the Western and Eastern opinions may be reduced to objective material differences.

However, one can't explain the "whole effect" in this way. The problem is that the difference in wealth is just a quantitative one; however, the problems that the clueless Western Europeans are deliberately bringing are ruining Europe pretty much qualitatively. The point is that the hole in the pipeline is still wide open. A nearly unlimited amount of extra water – the migrants – will keep on flowing to Europe.

For this reason, it makes no sense to quantify the quotas. Well-defined absolute numbers of migrants that each country should "accept" are only meaningful if the total number of the migrants in Europe is a fixed number. But as long as the holes remain open, it is not a fixed number. It is an increasing number, basically an infinite one. If the holes remain open, it is guaranteed that the inflow will be a devastatingly huge blow to the rich Western European welfare systems, too.

At the end, all of the world's 1.6 billion Muslims are potential migrants. And be sure that one may realize that Germany is a wealthier and happier place to live and be a pretty fanatical Muslim at the same moment. Most of the migrants surely belong to the intersection of both sets. Let me assume that you believe me that if all of them were allowed to go to Europe and the population of Europe would quadruple and instantly became mostly Islamic, Europe as we have known it would be over. Europe would turn into an extension of Syria and Iraq, with all of their misery and sectarian wars. But even if a relatively small portion of the Muslims arrive, like 100 million which is just 7%, Europe will probably be over.

Optimistically from a Berlin perspective, only 1/2 of those 100 million, 50 million, would end up in Germany. Add lots of their children and in 20 years, the Muslims are guaranteed to govern Germany – as long as it remains at least "slightly" democratic. The new majority would codify all their favorite Islamic rules. All Muslims older than 15 years have been pretty much hopelessly brainwashed by the Islamist propaganda. They believe millions of things that are not true and millions of things that are among the primary causes of the underdevelopment and backwardness of the Muslim world.

Well, I am absolutely convinced that a prosperous Germany would end long before the Muslims would become a majority. You can see that the attempts to integrate Muslim immigrants have failed basically everywhere. Denmark has admitted failure. 15 years after an immigration wave, 3/4 of those migrants are jobless. Switzerland has revealed almost identical numbers. It just doesn't work. Certain groups don't integrate well. The Czech Romani people haven't been integrated after 500 years, either. All the circumstantial evidence suggests that the problem with the Muslims is going to be very similar.

So the water keeps on leaking from the broken water pipeline in your apartment. Maybe it's an apartment on a passenger liner, the Titanic. A huge fraction of the Western Europeans are still dancing and they are obsessed with the idea that they are "nice" if they allow the water to flow in. Their main obsession is how to make the surface of the water in every room horizontal. Our neighbor isn't "nice" because he's isolated his rooms against the water.

Well, as time goes by, it becomes an intelligence test. How much time do you need to figure out that the horizontal surface isn't your main problem? To figure out that you should plug the holes in some way, to realize that you will face huge problems at some point if you fail to admit that something bad is going on and you need to confront the causes and not just some symptoms?

If there is 10 centimeters of the water in your room, is it enough for you to see the light? Do you need 50 centimeters? Or do you need so much water that the pressure on the door will prevent you from opening the door and get out? Or do you need the height to be over 150 cm so that you need to swim in your bedroom? Or do you need to fill the whole room so that you won't be able to breathe at all? Be sure that even chimps with the median IQ will figure out the problem – and a plausible strategy to save themselves – rather early. Unlike some humans, they can probably predict the "later stages" of this undesirable dynamics.

The German refugee centers became overcrowded sometime today – perhaps another good opportunity for many people to become a bit rational again.

The people who are still pretending – now, at the end of September 2015 – that Europe may continue to be welcoming to new Muslim migrants are surely stupid beyond comprehension. But even among the people who are stupid beyond comprehension, there exist different levels of stupidity. Are they stupid beyond comprehension Level One? Or Level Two? These questions may decide about the fate of countries in coming years.

Again, the point is that the problem is a qualitative one. The migrants mostly want to Germany because it's a rich country they know, one that is a part of their mythology, and it's the country that has generously invited them. So whether you like it or not, over 1/2 of those migrants will end up in Germany. Germany may try to send a fraction of the migrants to other EU countries. But at most, this may reduce the number of migrants who stay in Germany at most by 50% or so.

But there exists a bigger question than a factor of two: for example, whether the number of migrants is allowed to grow by an order of magnitude or not. If it is allowed to grow by a factor of 10, the question whether 1/2 of them will be successfully sent outside Germany is a minor detail in comparison. Germany may succeed in sending some of these migrants to the rest of the EU but the absolute number of the migrants who will stay in Germany will still be lethally huge.

And be sure that even to send just 50% to EU countries different than Germany – against the migrants' will – is a rather unrealistic, excessively ambitious goal. The Iraqi refugees (?) have said that they were saving their bare life, and so on. Some of them ended in Finland but they concluded that the country was boring and cold. The war in their homeland isn't that bad, they admitted, and they would prefer their homeland over Finland, after all. Almost no one can find out whether Iraq is actually their homeland, anyway. But only a complete moron would be using the word "refugee who need our help" for migrants who come to Finland and find it too bad. Finland is a country with one sauna per household in average. But you know, these "refugees who are saving their bare lives" want to live a better life.

(Incidentally, the approaching winter may calm and maybe even revert the refugee influx. Compare the climate of Damascus with that of Munich. The latter is clearly more than 10 °C cooler.)

Too many people in Western Europe are living light years away from the reality. They have turned themselves into zombies who push a "nice" line regardless of any context. As a TRF reader pointed out, the first sentence of the German constitution says that "the existence of the government and everything it must care about is the human dignity". With dumb, oversimplified attitudes of this kind, you may end up with some really bad decisions. And we are seeing examples of that.

At the end, I am sure that a huge fraction (dozens of percent) – and perhaps a majority – of the Western European nations including Germany do understand that the leaking pipeline is a problem that has to be solved. Their thinking – values, forecasts, worries, common sense – is very similar to the thinking that is widespread in Czechia, among other countries. But these people are being suppressed by the emerging totalitarian regimes.

This is not an example of a conspiracy theory or whining. It's official news. Angela Merkel met Mark Zuckerberg and demanded to crack down on posts and users on the whole (so far only German) Facebook that are "anti-immigrant".

Wow. If it were at least formulated as a censorship of pro-fascist posts that threaten the lives or human rights or dignity of the people who happen to be Muslims, one could perhaps understand it. Germany enforces these laws against "hate crimes" more than everyone else and we understand the historical reasons for that. But to "crack down on all anti-immigrant posts and users"? Have you lost your mind, Frau Merkel? This is an absolute destruction of the last traces of the freedom of speech in Germany, especially because every single sane person who is watching events in this migration wave is "anti-immigrant".

It's time for the sane people in Germany and elsewhere to rise. Maybe you don't have enough time left.

Mostly off-topic: Czech president Zeman will give a speech in the United Nations at 6 pm New York time. He will propose a Bill-O'Reilly-style international legion to destroy ISIS. He has clearly been scooped by other speakers such as the Jordanian one.

On Monday, he celebrated his 71st birthday – which is also the Day of Czech Statehood (because St Wenceslaus was murdered by his brother on the same date, 9/28). In New York, he picked the most friendly site for him LOL – Mari Vanna, a luxurious Russian restaurant near Broadway. The songs on his party above are clearly Russian, too. People guess that the video above probably should have stayed confidential but I am not actually quite sure about it.

Previously, on Monday, he spoke to the Czech Americans during his visit of the Statue of Liberty. He said that they would probably visit their old homeland at some point. That land differs from the new homeland in some ways etc. He said some poetic things about Czechia's and Prague's being mysteriously beautiful, or something like that. He also said that due to some mistakes, we don't have the sea. But the silver lining is that they won't get drowned in the Czech sea. ;-) An example of a less controversial Zeman's witticism.

Prime minister Sobotka gave Zeman some DVDs as the birthday gift. He forget to mention that the DVD package also included many bottles of a good Moravian wine. You may imagine that there are some reactions to all these events in Czechia.

Zeman is clearly an authentic "president of the masses". Aside from his University of Economics degree, he behaves as a smart yet rural bumpkin, of course. Sometime in the past, I could have been horrified by the idea of such a president (and I would think of the first communist president Gottwald as a truly repulsive precedent of this sort) but in recent years, I began to appreciate it.

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