Sunday, October 25, 2015

Will polls make Poland more skeptical of the EU?

Update: the answer turned out to be a resounding Yes. Law and Justice got 235/460, more than 1/2, of the deputies.

Today, Polish voters – descendant of Forefather Lech who was the brother of Forefather Czech – are choosing their new Parliament.

My God, a girl fight.

And it's sort of fun and unusual because both prospective prime ministers are female. But as some Polish "insider pundits" say, the women are just facades or puppets who fight on behalf of their male puppet masters.

So it's widely understood that Ms Ewa Kopacz, the current and defending prime minister, is just running on behalf of Mr Donald Tusk – who pretends to be the current "President of Europe" – and his Eurofederalist "Civic Platform" (whose ministers had a hard time recently due to an eavesdropping scandal). On the other hand, her challenger Ms Beata Szydlo is running on behalf of Mr Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the surviving twin brother from the Law and Justice conservative Euroskeptic party.

The probable third most important party, United Left, is led by a woman, too. Her name is Barbara Nowacka. She's the youngest among the three.

Surveys suggest that the Law and Justice (which is supported "mostly" by the countryside) should win but things aren't clear and it isn't clear whether Law and Justice, even if it wins, will need coalition partners. Anyway, it's predicted that the polls will make Poland less Euronaive. Euroskeptics have already gained when Andrzej Duda was surprising elected the Polish president. Beata Szydlo is widely credited for having run Duda's victorious campaign.

Since the beginning of the 2008 downturn, Poland has been one of the fastest growing economies in Europe. It also has certain ambitions to be a "regional power" of a sort. It's ambiguous what they exactly mean by that but I am afraid that whatever it is, it is exaggerated. If some German-Russian war games got repeated, I think that the fate of Poland would be similar to what it was in 1939. It's my belief that the Poles should rationally favor peace in Central Europe and some sort of balancing of the influence of the other powers – something that the Czechs basically consider the regional "status quo" strategy.

Donald Tusk's job in Brussels is a sign of the staunchly pro-EU positions that Poland was displaying in recent years. This sometimes fanatical pro-EU attitude was also the root of the recent "betrayal" of Poland. Despite its promises and commitments, Warsaw decided to vote against the rest of the Visegrád Group (Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia) and support the EU migrant quotas.

It is expected that a new vote on EU migrant quotas – perhaps a permanent system to relocate them – will take place soon. A permanent system would be far more dangerous than a vote about a limited, arbitrary, fixed number of migrants we watched a month ago. So it's important that every important enough country that isn't quite excited about the Islamization of Europe – and Poland is sufficiently important – will vote against the proposed mandatory Islamization of Europe project.

Whether or not Beata Szydlo wins the elections today, I can already congratulate her. According to the Czech calender, Beátas celebrate their name day today! The name is from Latin – it means happy or blessed. Yes, I do hope that Poland will come closer to V4 and further from centralization plans in Brussels.

This 2008 parody of my most favorite song of the kindergarten years and beyond, Jožin z bažin, shows that the basic conflict of the Polish politics hasn't changed much in the recent 7 years. Sadly, only one twin brother is alive. But his party stands against Tusk's naive pro-EU promises etc. Whoever wins, Poland is likely to stay much more Russophobic than other central European countries. In the case of Law and Justice, the negative attitudes are also supported by the suspicion that the plane crash that killed Lech Kaczynski and much of the Polish elite wasn't quite a coincidence. But I must say that Szydlo sounded much more eager to have sustainable peaceful relationships with Russia than others.

BTW the iPhone Tom Cat version of Jožin z bažin that I recorded has over 300,000 views now. Not too bad. ;-)

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