Monday, May 16, 2016

Durkin's "Brexit" movie has persuaded me

John Archer told us about a new movie by Martin Durkin, the man behind "The Great Global Warming Swindle" which I considered an excellent rebuttal to the global warming hysteria. The movie argues that the Britons should vote "Leave" in the coming Brexit referendum about the U.K. membership in the EU:

I watched those 71 minutes at the 1.5 times normal speed, native speakers may almost certainly try the same thing (or faster). Aside from the British TRF readers, I recommend the movie to the Americans – 1/2 of TRF readers and a nation that seems deeply ignorant about the meaning of the EU – and non-British Europeans, too.

I was extremely pleased by the degree of agreement with the content of the movie – the parts I "knew" (there were many points that may have been new for me). In particular, I was always afraid that the UKIP and similar folks aren't exactly beacons of the free market. But Durkin surely is one.

The movie explains how democracy works, why it works well, why the EU is all about the self-serving unelected bureaucratic elites and politicians whom almost no one in the U.K. knows. It sketches some history of freedom and prosperity. Centuries ago, Britain was the powerhouse. The war made the government stronger which led to a sick U.K. economy after the war. At that time, Germany experienced its economic miracle, due to the universal "auf Wiedersehen" that was said to regulation and barriers etc. in West Germany as the country was transforming from ruins to the world's #3 economic superpower.

In the current world, Switzerland – a non-member of the EU – is presented as the ultimate paradise. Lots of myths about the trade deals are debunked. It's being argued that the U.K. may become massively wealthier outside the EU. There were lots of moments that made me laugh, for example Durkin's detailed research showing how many EU laws regulate various objects in the everyday life. (Milk was at the top with 12,000+ EU milk laws, holy cow.)

If I were a British voter, I would see that the number of sensible free-market advocates in the U.K. is probably higher than in the EU and things may just work. I think that I would almost certainly vote "Leave" if I were a Briton. It's up to the British voters how they decide, of course.

On the other hand, the Brexit referendum could very well be followed by a Czechzit referendum – along with the Danes, the Czechs have been claimed to be the "next nation waiting in the line". My near certainty that I would vote "Leave" in the U.K. doesn't translate to a certainty about my vote in a hypothetical Czechzit referendum.

The main differences are:
  1. My worry that Czechia could be manipulated by the hostile adjacent EU much more brutally than the U.K. (or Switzerland) are.
  2. My worry that while I find the Czech opinions about many things (e.g. Islam) safe and healthy, I don't really trust the ordinary Czechs' opinions about the economy, welfare state, and other things, and I can imagine that even in these respects, the EU is still playing a positive role.
  3. The EU, especially German, economy is much more important (by the percentage) for the Czech economy than for the U.K. We do belong to the broader German economy (although it could arguably change) and a big political separation from Germany just doesn't sound too natural to me.
Many things suck in the EU and the U.K. may probably avoid most of these bad things after the Brexit. But am I sure that Czechia will? Am I sure when I see how many people fanatically support a "big guy" such as Babiš (who will come to Pilsen tomorrow) or various policies extending the dependence of the citizens on the government? Well, I am not sure.

There are red lines that would bring me squarely to the "Czechzit Leave" camp – such as a credible threat that the EU will be capable of distributing unlimited numbers of illegal immigrants in all the member states (they would surely be renamed to legal ones) without any consent of the target nations. If something like that were going to take place (and there could be a few similar horror policies), I would root for "Leave".

But in the absence of such things, I am simply not sure.

In the recent 1,000 years, a nearly decisive fraction of the things that kept Czechia a part of the full-fledged Western civilization (whenever it was true at all) were coming from Germany. You might be surprised that I am saying such a thing – because you know me as a relative friend of Russia etc. – but I do share some fear with the Russophobes and it seems to me that too sharp a weakening of the links with Germany and the countries around it (and in that direction) could send us to the East, in the civilization sense. It didn't quite happen to the First Republic of Czechoslovakia in between the war but I feel that the situation is different now because there are many people in Czechia who have gotten infected by communism as well as dictatorial tendencies and other things that may be even worse than the emasculated contemporary German attitude.

We will see. The future isn't clear even in the U.K. At any rate, I do agree with Durkin that the alarmism about Brexit is almost entirely bogus, a myth emitted by the people who benefit from this sick and corrupt system benefiting the "special" people that the EU has turned into. If you became convinced that the direction the EU has taken is wrong, you shouldn't be afraid of voting "Leave".

There's some recent experience that my nation has which tells me that this fearmongering shouldn't be taken seriously. As recently as in early 1992, I belonged to the set of people who were strongly against the dissolution of Czechoslovakia and who tended to believe scary programs on TV claiming that the dissolution would mean a war and general misery etc. It turned out to be complete rubbish. If no one is really planning any war, there won't be any war, and similarly with the other threats. The Czech-Slovak relations have never been better.

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