Donald Trump took victory lap after the U.S. Senate approved the largest tax cut in the U.S. history – by far – hours ago. Senators have joined the Congressmen who have previously approved their version of the bill. Trump claims that their opposition to the bill will hurt The Mocked Rats. I am not so sure but I surely hope so.
The bill got 51 Yes votes – safely above the 50 votes it had needed ;-) – when only one Republican, Bob Corker, voted with the (unanimous) Democratic Party.
Now, because these two bills are different, all the lawmakers will have to spend some time to find a compromise between the two bodies. That's how America often does it – if some kind Yankee explains to me why it wouldn't be better for both chambers to vote on the same bill from the beginning, I will be slightly grateful. ;-)
So the bill may still be killed although I think it's more likely that it will survive.
Let me start with the claimed negatives. Scott Aaronson has argued that the bill is going to destroy graduate schools across the U.S. Tuition is taxed in a new way that effectively means grad students to keep $10,000 a year less than before. I don't know why he was unable to summarize the situation this concisely in his long tirade.
As a Rutgers graduate student, I actually saved some $10,000 every year – you can see that Gandhi was a spoiled diva living in luxury in comparison with me. So the new bill would mean that I wouldn't save anything, approximately speaking, and I would only build some savings as a postdoc. Maybe the pressures that this increased graduate students' poverty causes aren't just bad. And yes, this inconvenience is a double-edged sword, it may harm some bad people – e.g. graduate students in parasitic pseudointellectual fields such as the postmodern "humanities".
Note that lots of readers at Aaronson's blog actually defend the policy towards grad students.
Everything else seems to be positive, starting from details such as the expected cancellation of the totally absurd and unethical $7,500 subsidy for electric cars after December 31st. JP Morgan expects the bill to erase up to 40% from the nonsensical Tesla stock price bubble. (Tesla Model S has also lost the subsidy in Germany because it's too expensive for the program.) There are more important things in the bill, of course.
Most importantly, a big tax cut (from 35% to 20%) is planned for the corporations which will make the U.S. society richer, especially in the long run. Companies are the places that can use extra cash most effectively – partially as an investment allocated by some of America's best managers – which is why the lowering of their taxes is the best investment for the whole. Everyone who fails to get this simple point of trickle-down or supply side economics is just an economics (and history) crackpot. Try to cover it by your left-wing beliefs or anything else but it's actually crackpottery that is behind it.
The lower taxes are planned to add some trillion to the budget deficit over the coming years. It's bad in principle but I believe that America may afford these things right now – things are rosy – and the higher growth rate will soon be able to repay the hole.
I would love to hope that in this particular case, European and Czech apparatchiks will recognize the U.S. as our role models. But I think that they only view America as a good example when America is doing absolutely insane and sick things. The Slovak Bolshevik snitch and billionaire who is going to become the Czech ruler – despite the growing pile of serious crimes that he is investigated for – will tend to make taxes higher and more complicated – he was elected by inferior rabble for his promises to make the life harder for the successful citizens. No, Babiš really isn't the Czech Trump. First, he's Slovak, not Czech, second, he is the anti-Trump when it comes to most of the key policies such as taxation.
A majority of regular taxpayers should also see lower taxes (starting with a doubled standard deduction).
On top of that, the tax forms should simplify brutally although I haven't studied which of these things are really a part of the bills approved by the two chambers. Google search for a postcard tax filing to see how simple the taxes could become. Loopholes should generally disappear, the frustration should drop. You can't imagine how many weeks I have wasted with the filing of tax returns, especially while in the U.S. and especially on the first year after the type of my job and visa status changed.
Sometime in the future, the governments should take their revenue from the sales only and the income tax should be abolished. So there should be a "postage stamp tax form". The stamp will say "great, the U.S. abolished the income tax in 2025" or something like that. ;-)
I wish Americans that nothing will stop the bill anymore. As far as I remember, it will be the greatest triumph of President Trump so far, one that also shows that the rumors about his war with the GOP were exaggerated. This bill looks like a clear child of Trump and the GOP – his party – who worked together. Some RINOs are similar to The Mocked Rats but most of the GOP is Trump's party today, and it had to be so. Please, Donald, accept my preliminary congratulations.
Another U.S. political topic: You may have noticed a troll who celebrated a "bombshell" – Flynn's accusation against Trump etc. As expected, this whole nothingburger has been a complete mistake. It wasn't candidate Trump but president elect Trump who ordered Flynn to negotiate with the Russian ambassador. What Trump did was obviously totally OK. That's not the case of ABC News that created this fake news story – famous journalist Brian Ross was involved in the creation of this garbage – and sent the U.S. stock market down by almost one percentage point. Similar lies at ABC and CNN etc. are way too frequent and something should probably be done against such events.