Although I always found it comparably plausible that some other smart guy like Nick Szabo was the Bitcoin's father Satoši Nakamoto, I was rather persuaded by the 2015 revelations that Craig Wright, a Sydney-based climate skeptic and right-winger of a sort, is the father of the most famous cryptocurrency.
Well, he argued that he was the main part of a team that apparently also included Dave Kleiman, a paralyzed Florida-based computer expert who died in 2013, and perhaps a third person. Now, it's totally plausible that Kleiman and Wright (or Kleiman and Wright and a third person) were sharing the brand "Satoši" equally; or that Kleiman was the real Satoši and Wright wanted to visually increase his own importance in the team. I can't really disprove such possibilities.
But it seemed clear to me that Wright has been extremely close to the heart of the Bitcoin at least since 2009, i.e. since the very early beginnings.
One week ago, my confidence that Wright and/or Wright+Kleiman were the "majority of Satoši Nakamoto" has increased due to a Florida court decision. If you haven't followed it, it's a very troubling verdict for Craig Wright because he has to pay 1/2 of the "Tulip Trust" to the family of Kleiman's, namely Ira Kleiman, late Dave Kleiman's brother.
See the Tulip Trust document allegedly written by Dave Kleiman in 2011 which also says that the keys for all BTC 1,100,111 should return from a person unknown to Wright to Wright on 1/1/2020.
Whether the decision by the court is fair or not is unclear to me. I am deeply suspicious of such court decisions, especially if it seems likely that the judge misunderstands the technological know-how and the appropriate credit when it comes to the software IP issues and other things. Also, it is not clear to me who is the third person and why he or she is supposed to get nothing.
But I was mostly convinced that the judge has actually obtained – and promised to hide – evidence that Kleiman and Wright were in charge of approximately 1 million Bitcoins they mined between 2009 and 2011 and placed them into the "Tulip Trust". Ira Kleiman should now get half a million Bitcoin, according to the court verdict. The current value of the "Tulip Trust" is almost $10 billion – each of the two men would seemingly own 1/2 of it i.e. almost $5 billion.
Some reading for you:
EXCLUSIVE: First interview with Craig Wright after judge orders him to pay $5 billion in bitcoinIt would seem strange that Ira Kleiman were capable of producing the figure "one million Bitcoin they shared" – and/or why Wright would agree with that claim – if that idea were a complete nonsense. Also, I think that Nakamoto's "one million early Bitcoins" that haven't been moved yet are the only similarly large, compact, early enough stash of the cryptocurrency that people are familiar with. For this reason, my understanding is that this court was really discussing the ownership dispute between two people who control the early Nakamoto's coins.
Craig Wright: Court Ruling Proves I'm Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto
Video interview with Wright (MetaNetTV)
Craig Wright IS Satoshi Nakamoto (Coil.com)
(Note that almost 18 million Bitcoin have been mined so far. The total number will converge to 21 million with an exponentially dropping leftover. Each 4 years, approximately during the Summer Olympics, the reward for mining a block [one per ten minutes] gets halved – it will drop from 12.5 to 6.25 in 2020.)
Wright has also said that he didn't have access to the 1 million Bitcoin. Someone reliable were in charge and on the first day of 2020, those funds could be moved. But maybe this comment was a lie and Wright has taken it back – and he can control the coins now. If that is true, then he will probably agree to move half a million Bitcoin right away. Ira Kleiman seems decided to sell them right away – to say the least, he will be immediately obliged to pay the estate tax of 40% which means BTC 200,000 or so from his share. It's not clear which BTC/USD rate would be used for the tax – if the final one, Ira Kleiman could avoid taxes altogether LOL.
Well, Wright would also prove to have these holdings and he could be forced to pay some huge tax, too. All these holdings might still be a fantasy that the judge began to parrot. Or the judge could have been fooled. But I find it a bit more likely that Wright had no reason to pretend that he has this wealth – and the duty to pay 1/2 to someone else (unless he is a real masochist) – and the judge has obtained some real evidence that these two men have mined one million early Bitcoins.
If Wright is really Nakamoto or a half-of-Nakamoto (or a third-of-Nakamoto), I find his treatment by the Bitcoin cult just stunning. He would be the God Creator of the thing that all these cultists worship – but they treat the God Creator as the ultimate Devil! And He's behaved as a complete God for the ten years. In particular, He could have sold his share, manipulated the currency in many ways but He didn't. They forced Him to do some things that could end up in a bloodbath for all the world's HODLers. What a bunch of evil idiots.
Some hardcore far left ideology seems to be driving this anti-Wright hatred. In his original paper, there is no sign of a left-wing ideology. Nakamoto just invented a system for micropayments, just like Wright still says, and the idea was that the Bitcoin would be pegged to some genuine assets such as the fiat money. It's just a cheaper version of a PayPal in which everyone may become the miner – i.e. the counterpart of the owners of the PayPal company. That's it. It sort of works at this level although the energy consumption has grown to insane levels. But that's not a necessary feature of the system and the energy consumption is much smaller in other currencies, like Wright's new own Bitcoin SV (Satoši Vision).
But the cultists want to fight against the central banks, fiat money, commercial banks, and perhaps capitalism as such. They want the Bitcoin which has zero intrinsic value – a fact that they deny – to be valuable because of tulip-bubble mechanisms. They want it to be digital gold, something that both Wright and the original Nakamoto originally disagreed with (because it's just a plain idiocy – gold is something you can make cool teeth and jewels of, the Bitcoin is not).
So these mathematically and financially illiterate far left loons apparently über-hate someone who is rather likely to be the God Creator of their cult – whom they call Faketoshi etc. And they were pushing Him to increasing existential trouble so that, after some instructions by the courts, He may be forced to liquidate the cryptocurrency community, i.e. all His sheep from the Sodoma and Gomorrah who don't really love their God! ;-)
Another question is whether the prices of all the coins must collapse. It would be far from obvious if the market were rational. One could treat the Bitcoins as shares in a company. It has been assumed that 1 million out of 18 million Bitcoin were "frozen" so basically non-existent as the supply that may be dumped to the market. Now it may be dumped. So it just increases the supply i.e. "dumpable" Bitcoins waiting to be sold by some 5 percent or so. It's not a big deal – if the number of stocks increases by 5%, the price of each should drop just by some 5%.
But one faces the problem that these people just don't think as stockholders and there is no "intrinsic value of all the Bitcoin" that may be meaningfully followed by similar calculations. The whole price of the Bitcoin is a random number produced by the mood and temporary imbalances between the supply and demand. So they may expect close to a million (or at least 200,000) Bitcoin to be dumped which means an expectation of a dropping price – so almost everyone will be selling the Bitcoin as well, thus amplifying the collapse of the price. That's what's generally expected from the possible dump.
So far, all the sheep in the Bitcoin cult seem to pretend that they don't understand the main consequence of the Florida trial – which affects them. They pretend it's a great victory because a man they hate is in trouble. Well, I think they don't pretend much, they are really clueless idiots.
Wright could be worth billions of dollars but if he's Satoši Nakamoto, I am so happy that it wasn't me who wrote this piece of code – that could have been an even better example of "throwing pearls to swine" than the top discoveries in theoretical physics.
Meanwhile, Wright has challenged the verdict and demands a 14-day delay "because of Hurricane Dorian" that made him unprepared to send the funds right away. Somewhat amusing but probably a normal delaying tactic.