Sunday, September 01, 2019

AfD takes silver in Saxony and Brandenburg



Isn't something missing on this map of Europe? What could it be?

According to ARD, the first German television channel, the only opposition party in Germany – the Alternative for Germany (AfD) – has scored nice but not revolutionary results in both Bundesländer. The AfD was the second most powerful party in both elections.
Music: Czechs and Slovaks sing in German (playlist)
In Brandenburg – which is the region around Berlin but excluding Berlin – the openly left-wing social democrats (SPD) won with 27.2% followed by AfD with 22.7%. Merkel's Christian Democrats were third with 15.3% – again, in the Bundesland surrounding Berlin. The Linke commies got 11% and the Greens received 10.2%. Around 5%, the threshold they need to surpass to get in, we see the promisingly named FW (Free Voters) slightly above 5% and the promisingly named but already disappointing FDP (now 4.8%).



In Saxony – the Bundesland between Brandenburg and Bohemia and the only Bundesland with a former DDR-Czechoslovak border – the winner is Merkel's CDU with 32% ahead of the AfD with the impressive 27.5%. The Linke, Greens, and Social Democrats should get in. It's pretty amazing that Saxony could place SPD on the fifth place – the estimate is 8% now – although it's the winner in the seemingly similar Brandenburg.



Despite the diversity of the results, both CDU and SPD have scored the worst results in both regions since the 1990 reunification of Germany. In one of these Bundesländer, the CDU+SPD coalition should become impossible but I guess it won't be a qualitative problem for "this kind of politics" simply because they will invite someone else and nearly identical to the new coalition.

I remember that some two years ago, an angry left-wing German reader was criticizing me for suggesting that the AfD could score some 15%. So much! Well, they got 22.7% and 27.5% in two lands of the federation today. Locally, it's a promising result showing that the fanatical Gleichschaltung-based thinking is much less laser-like than some people would like to suggest. But even if it made sense to think about Saxony and Brandenburg separately from the rest of Germany, and I think that it doesn't make much sense, these results around 25% would still fail to be enough against a cartel of the other parties.

But yes, assuming some extra deterioration and blunders, these numbers around 25% could easily go above 50%.

A third similar election will take place at the end of October in Thuringia – a DDR Bundesland adjacent to the two lands above as well as West Germany.



Update: According to the title page of AfD.de, the result grew to 23.7% and 27.8% in Brandenburg and Saxony, respectively, at 8 pm. At 9:02 pm, someone started huge fireworks about 50 meters from my windows. Well, now I finally realized that the title page of Tagesschau.de is the best place to follow the updates. With 23.5% around 9:10 pm, AfD still has a theoretical chance to surpass SPD's 26% in Brandenburg.

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