## Friday, March 20, 2020

### California under curfew: a truly crappy apocalyptic movie

A few hours ago, a wannabe Hitler, the governor of California, has issued the self-evidently unconstitutional "order" (he emphasized it wasn't just a "request") to 40 million Californians – inhabitants of the world's most admired state of a comparable size, at least in modern technologies – to stay home for a month. A positive detail is that many of the locals have "online jobs", anyway. But that's not the case of many other states that will probably emulate this insanity soon. Increasingly unhinged psychopaths are clearly increasingly taking over everything that is left from the civilization.

This guy has also ordered 56% of Californians (such a nice precision!) to contract the virus in 8 weeks. Clearly, the actual number isn't known even plus minus two orders of magnitude (and greatly depends on details of the definition of "infected", anyway). To claim he can predict two significant figures just proves that he is a complete hack.

Affluenflammation is about the pathological obsession with looking for medical problems. The original song was Californication. This remake is mainly against anti-vaxxers but you know what: When the vaccine is available, most of the hysterical people won't want the vaccination, anyway.

In 2-3 days, it may be upgraded to "martial law", he explicitly said. So much for the claims that Americans are so exceptional that they would never allow tyranny to arise. There's nothing qualitatively special about Americans and Californians are probably more extremely far left in average than the Europeans. A bunch of people who are terrified of a flu-like virus seem more than enough to establish tyranny in California.

This wannabe Hitler will almost certainly try to keep the power indefinitely and cancel all future elections. There exists an understandable reason: his life will become indefensible at the moment when he loses his very expensive guards because the elimination of individuals such as himself was pretty much the original purpose of the Second Amendment according to a very large number of Americans.

Martians attack.

An asteroid is going to hit the Earth.

Electricity stops working.
Well, all these filmmakers and novelists have missed the actual original event that would ignite the ultimate black swan drowning in steroids and pepper sauce.

The actual event igniting the black swan in the pepper sauce is:
A Chinese grandma coughs and dies with a fever.
This is the kind of an event that kickstarted this whole insanity. Something special was found about a coronavirus she and other people who got infected from her possessed and everyone focused on this type of an otherwise common family of viruses.

Why haven't the filmmakers thought of this plot? Because it would sound utterly implausible that a variation of flu would lead to the declaration of curfews all over the world. An intelligent viewer would be insulted by such a boring and implausible plot. Why wouldn't they enforce the curfew just right away, without any virus? And in reality, someone would stop the lunatic from placing California under curfew because of a cold virus, right? Even a not so intelligent viewer would be insulted! Meanwhile, in the real world, that's exactly what happens. Hours of constant brainwashing by apocalyptic hype and the reporting of every infection or death is clearly enough to make billions of people completely lose their mind and common sense.

Italy is the most affected country (surely according to the percentage of the infected population), having recorded some 3500 fatalities. The official Italian government figures say something interesting:
99.2% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says
Again, less than 1% of the Italian casualties, about 30 people as of now (the figure will get obsolete), had no pre-existing disease. Most of these 30 people were still extremely old. The rest are just victims of a flu-like infection through which Mother Nature decided to veto our idea that "we may keep all the arbitrarily old people with arbitrarily many diseases alive for an arbitrarily long time". We just can't, She stated. It is Her, not you, a fudging whining radical leftist, who defines the rules of the game about the most rudimentary things. Bioengineering will change the rules in humans' favor again but medical advances don't happen by decrees or through panic.

Jojo left his home in Tucson, AZ, for some Californian grass. "Get back," they told him. Jojo can't get back, fudging Beatles, because there's a curfew in California now, haven't you heard about it?

Otherwise the real full-blown deaths caused by Covid-19 may be a dozen in Italy; some sources say that only two deaths in Italy are safely attributed to this virus. I think that several percent of Italians have already gone through the infection. The real death count eliminating the questionable deaths that could have other reasons could be just comparable to 1,000 in Italy in the future worst case scenario, perhaps still below flu. CEBM, evidence-based medicine section of Oxford University, estimated that the fatality rate is 0.125% and about 1% for people above 70 (thanks, JP).

If those figures were approximately right, then it's obvious that the hysteria has already caused greater damages than the virus ever could, even in the worst case scenario. By the way, if you don't know the name of University of Oxford, maybe you know Stanford where a doctor also suggests that these events might be "evidence fiasco of the century". (Well, yes, John Ioannidis is the guy who wrote that most published papers are wrong. I surely think that this simple statement is true for the body of recent publications.)

Eagles also failed to mention that you can't check out from Hotel California. So many classic songs have become so ludicrous now. Another example: If you're going to San Francisco now, you must especially think about having flowers in your hair. ;-)

We don't know whether the virus was completely natural, genetically engineered, or something in between. Some articles present evidence that it was natural enough, perhaps selected by natural selection as a rare representative of similar coronaviruses that may bind to the human biology (to ACE2); see Nature medicine 3 days ago, thanks to Oscar. I understand the statement and the basic proposed logic but I am not equipped enough to verify the the reasoning that led to the conclusion.

At some level, it really doesn't matter at all whether the virus emerged completely naturally. Even without human assistance, such new (or re-appeared) viruses have always been possible. The dynamics of its propagation doesn't really depend on its "lab origin" at all. One of the far-fetched theories about the genesis of this hysteria that I thought about was the following:
China just decided to shut down the West. So it released a good enough coronavirus, enforced a lockdown on a province for a month to show the West what it should be doing, and then it just waited for the mindless West to do the same (and holy cow, I've encountered lots of mindless would-be smart imbeciles automatically saying "we need to do everything that the Chinese comrades do") but across all their territories and for much longer periods of time in the process of committing societal suicide.
It is far-fetched but there is some evidence that it could make sense. First, it seems implausible that China has really eliminated the virus completely. Italy's lockdown looks "comparable" but they didn't even achieve taming of the trend, let alone reduction by orders of magnitude. An alternative explanation is that China simply stopped to look at this flu-like virus and returned to the business-as-usual and it's possible because the virus doesn't really do much beyond what flu-like diseases normally do, and it may be rather useless to distinguish it from flu at all.

Another piece of evidence supporting the far-fetched theory was the following news in the official Chinese media:
Western states’ ‘surrender’ to COVID-19 shocks Chinese
It's shocking that the U.K. and Sweden decided not to shut their countries down completely yet. (Incidentally, there doesn't seem to be any visibly negative consequences of these two countries' decisions.) The great leaders of China may have decided that the whole West must commit suicide, as shown by the role models in the Hubei province, so how it's possible that Sweden and the U.K. resist?

Whether China wanted it and planned it or not doesn't really matter. The main problem is that the West is so unbelievably degenerated that it would swallow this trick. And it totally did. Maybe China didn't plan it but it seems likely that the countries that will not have committed the economic suicide will take over the world. And it may be just O(1) year away, maybe even earlier. It will really be their natural duty, the duty of the new bosses of Planet Earth. Surely when the Western civilization turns into unproductive 2 billion of animals who are hysterically hiding in basements and piling their debt, China or someone else may start to treat us as animals and recycle our otherwise unused territory and other resources.

OK, great future Chinese overlords. Do what is needed. I have mixed feelings about the continued, very different continuation of the intelligent life on Earth. Please, try to preserve some whites for the sake of diversity. Don't forget that most of the 1.4 billion Chinese have really admired the Western nations and found us attractive. Produce lots of replicas of the Czech Karlštejn Castle, like in the Chinese commercial above (from the Kosmo TV series about the Czech astronauts).

The world will be more boring if and when it becomes one monstrous China and it's your task, beloved Chinese Westophiles and Czechophiles (who are sadly separated from this blog by the Great Firewall of China) to make it less bad. Some 50 million of you, the Chinese, must become honorary Czechs. You must actually learn the Czech language, sing the Czech songs, read and write Czech books, and so on. You badly need to improve yourself in string theory. Xiè xie for your understanding, comrades. ;-)

This theme about the Chinese takeover of America and the West isn't new. Recall that the 2010 version of the story was all about the unsustainable debt. Well, maybe the Chinese takeover ultimately will include the debt. If you imagine that the West remains close for business for two years or more, China, the main creditor, will encounter first inabilities to pay and it will just gradually take over Western companies and governments. It's amazing if the "missing piece of the mosaic" of this scenario was a VIP cold.