Britain has switched to the full-blown house arrest, too. It basically seems that Peter Hitchens is the only British pundit who heroically keeps on fighting against the new emerging Coronafascism. The absolute collapse of the British – and other – elites is something I wouldn't be willing to consider, let alone able to predict, even a month ago. People are much more stinky trash than what I found imaginable.
As Hitchens said, England started in 1066 and ended in 2020, with a giggle, not a bang. That's how glorious countries end.
The U.K. and most other countries seem to be hopelessly filled with irrational, brain-dead herds of cattle that are encouraging each other to behave ever more destructively and suicidally. The super-devastating recipes have no reason to be believed to work and the empirical evidence strongly indicates that they don't work. Lots of other approaches – like getting some of the damn promising drugs – would work far more efficiently but no one seems to care about those. Delay this or that promising drug by another 2 months, why not? We may turn off the world economy for as many months or centuries as you want, it's fun! Holy smokes.
The lockdowns are pure losses with no benefits. Hundreds of millions of people in the West don't seem to care – they are excited to endorse this absolute insanity that keeps on growing.
Take Czechia, my homeland, and look at the lockdowns from some rational cost-and-benefit viewpoint. Czechia has 1289 cases as of Tuesday 9 am. Those include 1 fatality, a 95-year-old patient who had many pre-existing illnesses. Out of the 1289, 75 or so are hospitalized, 19 are serious, and 7 have recovered.
The latest cured person is a biological Japanese man who worked for a textile company with links to Prostějov, a textile town in the Olomouc Region. He was "serious" two weeks ago but that didn't prevent him from being among the first Magnificent Seven of officially cured people. Two negative tests with a 9-day window in between is needed for that title in Czechia.
Israel has an even lower apparent fatality rate, 1 death for 1656 cases.
On March 7th, I started a concise section (a small paragraph) titled Policies to fight the contagion at the English Wikipedia page about Covid-19 in Czechia. In the following two weeks, it grew into a formiddable table that is "38 Page Down hits" long, comparable to the Czech constitution.
The restrictive policies have been growing exponentially.
But take this almost complete lockdown that has been in place for some 8 days now. What has it brought us and what has it stolen from us? It stopped about 50% of the Czech economy for a week which translates to 1% of the GDP. It's not just a one-time payment because tons of people have lost their jobs and tons of business will go bust and won't recover anytime soon. So additional "percentage points" of the GDP will unavoidably pile up. Only a completely financially illiterate loon – who is really a parasite who has been fed by someone else throughout his or her life – may misunderstand how extremely devastating these economic changes are.
A Fed official predicted a 30% unemployment rate and a 50% of the GDP. This isn't something to be compared with the Great Depression which was a non-event in comparison. I think that you won't really find any events in the recent 500 years that would really be quite comparable.
What has the lockdown brought us when it comes the Covid-19 health?
During these 8 days, the confirmed cases kept on increasing (although a part of them could have existed since the beginning and were only found later due to the increasing testing). In those 8 days of the lockdown, the cases have more than tripled from below 400 to above 1200. Nevertheless, the percentage of the infected population is still tiny in Czechia (but I believe it is near the herd immunity in Lombardy) so we're not gaining any significant "herd immunity" at this moment. If the lockdown reduces the rise of new cases at all, and I have doubts about it, then it still means that as soon as the lockdown is terminated, the hypothetically faster increase will restart.
Even if you imagine that the exponential growth is slowed by 30%, then these 8 days of lockdown – costing 1% of the GDP of the relevant country – just delayed the growing epidemics by 3 days or so. (And they have changed nothing about the fact that Covid-19 is omnipresent abroad which means that it may be imported at any moment again.) To delay epidemics by 3 days, does it make sense to pay 1/2 of the GDP for 8 days (i.e. the equivalent of the wealth that is produced in 4 days)? It clearly doesn't make the slightest sense. This policy is clearly approaching a complete bankruptcy (a debt of 150% of GDP is lethal and we would surely have it in 2021 or earlier) with no actual "improvement of the health situation" in sight. It is a "cure" that doesn't work at all.
Either there is clear evidence that the disease may be actually defeated and made extinct by some finite-cost campaign (instead of the totally idiotic "flattening a curve", you need to change the curve into a discontinuous cliff!); or it must be immediately determined that this lockdown strategy doesn't bring anything good at all and it should be abandoned right away.
To completely eliminate the disease seems implausible to me (assuming no vaccine) with the current numbers. The lockdowns and most other policies are "flu-Covid-blind" so if they are effective against Covid-19, they are effective against the similarly propagating (and now less widespread! It's after flu season) flu. So if we make Covid-19 extinct and it is because of the one-size-fits-all nationwide policies and not the selective quarantine, then we will make flu extinct, too! Do you find it plausible? I don't. Covid-19 just won't get extinct (at least not without a vaccine). It has almost certainly earned its place under the Sun. It's a sign of fanatical blindness to deny this fact or to fight against this fact.
We should observe which spring or summer temperatures will start to pose serious problems to Covid-19. Nature already knows the answer, we are not determining the answer and we can't buy the preferred answer, not even for trillions of dollars.
Has China actually tamed the disease by their "more draconian than we can make here" policies? I don't know. It's possible. But it's also possible that they have realized that Covid-19 just isn't a national problem and they started to cure it as business-as-usual. In particular, I believe that China simply switched to treating the early cases with the Fujifilm Japanese drug. Favipiravir is served orally and just prevents the transition of almost all milder cases to the serious cases. If it's possible, there doesn't exist a problem with Covid-19 at all (because it's just a fucking cold), and China may stop reporting it. China will reopen Wuhan in early April. The people with some symptoms simply get lots of these Japanese M&M's and the problem is solved for an overwhelming majority of them!
On one hand, China is a non-democratic country so it "can" do lots of brutal policies to suppress the basic individual rights. We just can't do it. The obsessive strategy of communism to "prevent anything that they can't plan" is ultimately a disadvantage of communism in the long term that causes its chronic stagnation – while the adaptability of capitalism, including adaptation to things like Covid-19, is a defining advantage of the free capitalism! Too bad that almost all the people who pretended to like freedom totally misunderstand these basic points today when these points are actually crucial for the fate of our whole civilization.
On the other hand, I just don't see how the Chinese shutdown "dramatically" differs from the Czech one, for example (we are really rather rigorous about the face masks, too). We don't see any clear decrease of the cases. Perhaps the new cases have approximately stabilized in recent 5 days (when the face masks were omnipresent; Mirai added my translation of the lyrics to his face mask song with 1M views, you can easily see that I am no native speaker but you will understand what's going on). So the China's reduction from 80,000 of active cases to "roughly 1 new domestic case" just seems rather implausible.
China may simply treat this disease as a non-problem, which is the rational thing to do, treats it with a Japanese drug, and waits for all other nations to commit suicide so that the Chinese may occupy every corner of Planet Earth. It's just amazing that despite the 24-hours-a-day coverage and hysteria about the topic, virtually no one is thinking about what is actually going on, why the evolution of the disease seems to be so different in China and Italy, and where various scenarios are headed. The 24-hours-a-day hysteria in the media is clearly designed to stop almost all people's rational thinking, over 99% is just irrelevant factoids served in order to terrify morons, and most of mankind is such incredibly filthy worthless garbage by now that they just obediently do what they are instructed to do. Become even more irrational, manipulated, hysterical morons.
I picked Czechia where it's obvious that we have sacrificed approximately billions of crowns and at most, we gained a few more months (and perhaps 3 days?) of life for another ill man who is 95 years old. The idea that this is a good deal is flabbergastingly stupid but tens of millions of people have been led to the answer "it is a good deal" in the polls. Sorry, mindless sheep, but your lives aren't worth saving. You are just stupid cattle that has gone wild and that is eager to destroy our, not your, civilization. You, and not a virus, are the problem. And you have made it abundantly clear that you have nothing to do with this civilization of ours whatsoever.
A cheat sheet
Now, Jenny, good that you came here. You were ordered to write this homework, an essay on the collapse of the Western civilization, by March 24th, 3500 AD. Good for you because you're living in another privileged era when loons and hysteria don't reign (your civilization will collapse in 3700 AD). Well, it's easy. The European West started to recycle the collapsed Roman Empire's know-how and values around 1000 AD. The progress peaked around 1500 AD and we saw things like universities, renaissance, enlightenment, capitalism with banks, constitutional monarchies, scientific method, industrial revolution, Parliaments, and more. The centuries were marked by wars and plagues but people knew that those were the business-as-usual, not the end of the world.
When the technologies became really advanced, in the 1960s, new generations of super-weak men started to be born. Stuff like the hippies not only wasn't discouraged from living, it was increasingly encouraged. And we saw the rise of increasingly degenerated, dishonest, and counterproductive movements of environmentalists and then even climate alarmists, feminists, transsexualists, and similar poisoned material. They become so common that a large majority of mankind actually found the existence of this atrocious toxic junk normal. For example, climate alarmists wanted to shut down a big part of the world economy to allegedly prevent the warming by a degree Celsius in a century, something they claimed to be both caused by CO2 emissions and on par with the Armageddon.
So it's not surprising that with this degenerated human material, in 2020 when a new flu-like virus emerged, officially in Wuhan, China, this mankind was ready to commit collective suicide because the viral thread looked 100 times more real than anything before that made millions to piss into their pants. The suicidal steps accelerated globally in March 2020. Coronafascism not only failed to be opposed by significant fractions of the populations; there was virtually no one who openly opposed this new insane regime. So of course it was unavoidable that the people were driven deeper and deeper to their basements, the recovery became increasingly impossible, especially after a wave of dismissals and bankruptcies (corporate and governments' bankruptcies) and the weakened Western civilization was easily overwritten by relative barbarians later in 2020.
I hope that you get an A. Otherwise tell your teacher she is a feminist kunda. Thanks.
Bonus: bankruptcies of countries
I am amazed by the calm of so many people, including those that depend on the governments. If these hysterical conditions in the markets plus shutdowns lasted for another year, and the governments add close to 100% of their GDP to the debt, countries will surely start to bankrupt because they won't be able to pay their debt which is due and no one will lend them again. It means that they will have to pay the services including healthcare and armies from their tiny revenues, or those will be dismantled. Such countries may literally become easy targets of invasions from other countries that aren't in this kind of trouble. The bankrupt nation may easily be eliminated, and I mean physically. These are the things to consider if someone really thinks about extending these insane policies to many, many months or even a year or years. Some Covid-19 fatalities are irrelevant in comparison.