## Thursday, April 30, 2020 ... //

### Witten demands 999 spacecrafts to find Planet Nine (maybe a black hole)

The Institute for Advanced Studies in Princeton seems to be all about "tangible science" these days.

Two weeks ago, Juan Maldacena studied the magnetic black holes of the Mount Everest mass whose magnetism is so strong that the Higgs mechanism is undone.

As Orion Pax has pointed out, his fellow Breakthrough Prize winner Edward Witten may have trumped Juan in the degree of realism of his down-to-Earth science. (It's down-to-Earth as well as all other directions, as we will see soon.) The astro-ph paper is called

Searching for a Black Hole in the Outer Solar System
Witten has been apparently persuaded that there exists Planet Nine.

### Important ingredients of science that are said to be unscientific

Mankind is drowning in fake science and it is overwhelmed by "experts" who don't really understand anything but who are being enthusiastically promoted by the fake news media.

In many cases, these "experts" seemingly authoritatively say that "you can't do this or that because it is unscientific". In most cases, such assertions are incorrect. They are not just "exaggerations". More often, they are upside down.

Here is a list – a highly incomplete list – of 12 widespread assertions that are wrong and they are importantly wrong.

1. It is unscientific to disagree with the consensus
2. It is unscientific to agree with a majority of scientists
3. It is unscientific to say that something is likely or unlikely
4. A theory is unscientific if it says that a quantity is meaningless if or when it is not observed by a well-defined procedure
5. It is unscientific to use aesthetic criteria while picking a theory
6. A theory is unscientific if it agrees with an older theory and they cannot be distinguished in currently doable experiments
7. It is unscientific to reduce a scientific question to an elaborate calculation or a complex mathematical argument
8. It is unscientific to dismiss an experiment (and evidence building on it) as a fraud or bad science
9. It is unscientific to consider people's subjective preferences and/or money in the scientific selection of the best policy
10. It is unscientific to dismiss an observed pattern as a coincidence or a fluke
11. It is unscientific to conclude that an observed pattern is probably not a coincidence and there must be a more detailed explanation
12. It is unscientific to claim that there is positive evidence in favor of a theory
Again, let me emphasize that the sentences above are myths. Let us spend some time with each of them.

## Wednesday, April 29, 2020 ... //

### Lockdown madness is a triumph of the precautionary principle

As recently as on February 14th 2020, I wouldn't have believed that it was possible for billions of people in the world – plus their elites and "elites", governments, Parliaments, media, bosses of the business world etc. – to voluntarily agree with government regulations that force them to stay home – with the justification that it's desirable to fight against a cousin of flu.

But here we are. 25 million Americans became unemployed in 5 weeks, the U.S. GDP dropped by 4.8% in Q1 of 2020 and Q2 will show much worse numbers. The situation is similar across the world – not only in "the West" but in most other countries, too. Many people want this insanity to continue. As far as I know, it has never happened in the history of civilizations that the bulk of a large enough nation, let alone the world, was kept at home for several months.

The general public has failed in the test of common sense, the would-be elites have failed, and yes, I must praise Elon Musk as an exception. How did it happen that a majority of the people have agreed with the lockdown – something that only seems to bring catastrophes and no advantages?

I think that this outcome should be blamed on the increasingly pathological propaganda that was spread in the recent decades and especially on the precautionary principle.

## Tuesday, April 28, 2020 ... //

### In California, medical expertise became heresy

Martin Kasík and JWSpry at Twitter have sent me the following 68-minute long video

Dr Erickson COVID 19 FULL Briefing AUDIO FIXED VERSION

(a BitChute backup here)
where Dr Dan Erickson and, to a lesser extent, another Californian doctor (Dr Artin Massihi) are explaining why it's unwise for California to be quarantined. They produce many conclusions based on the data, sometimes the data that were emerging in recent weeks, as well as some wisdom that I have called the "kindergarten basics of immunology".

They were presenting those ideas and data as genuine practical doctors who have worked with the Covid-19 patients.

The original copy of the video has attracted millions of viewers and was censored by the YouTube coronazis.

## Sunday, April 26, 2020 ... //

### Mauna Loa: rise of CO2 per year was between 2.1-2.8 ppm in April 2020

The Great Viral Depression may have already lowered the CO2 for this day from 416.1 to 415.9 ppm and the temperature from 14.159 to 14.157 °C, congratulations to everybody

You may go to a NOAA page which offers you several time series with the CO2 concentration. Let us pick the last one, the weekly data.

If you care about the columns in that file, right now, let me say that you may find the CO2 concentrations measured in Hawaii between May 19th, 1974, and April 19th, 2020 (a week ago). The dates are given both by year/month/day as well as year-in-decimals, the integer between 4 and 7 is how many days were used to get the average, -999.99 indicates a missing week, and there are some figures to compare the week with the week 1 year earlier and 10 years earlier.

## Friday, April 24, 2020 ... //

### Czech government lost a lockdown lawsuit, partly surrendered

Have the lawyers allowed to restore freedom in Czechia?

Czechia has clearly tamed the disease, because of the Covid-19 deceleration in many countries as well as our face mask policies. We had just about 50 new cases yesterday – and two fudging deaths in 24 hours. It would make sense to terminate the lockdown nonsense as soon as possible. But we're formally at the beginning of the 5-phase schedule to reopen the country.

New Edge: I've been a user of Google Chrome since Alpha versions but I just switched to the new Microsoft Edge (also on Android, Apple) which is a clone of Chrome based on Chromium, with all Chrome extensions that may be imported (like bookmarks) and everything else, and I find Microsoft less politically unacceptable than Google. Search engines work but can't be imported easily.
The evolution of the Czech restrictions confirms my April 7th predictions.

Two days ago, we learned from the government that the schedule could be accelerated: the last step (including the reopening of generic restaurants) could be added to the 4th step on May 25th, instead of June 8th. That looked promising. But the acceleration was put on steroids hours later.

### An analytic proof of the $$abc$$ conjecture?

LHCb anomaly strengthens: the decay $$B^{0}\rightarrow K^{*0}\mu^{+}\mu^{-}$$ has seen the increase from 3 sigma to 3.4 sigma. It is not the only flavor anomaly at the LHCb. See the preprint and Particle Bites

Swampland: a fun Harvard-Cornell paper unifying the Weak Gravity and Distance Conjectures using BPS black holes
Shinichi Mochizuki has given a long proof of the $$abc$$ conjecture, it was recently published in a peer-reviewed journal, but only a tiny number of people in the world have a justifiable reason to be certain about the validity (or invalidity) of the proof.

Maybe there is a more elementary proof (as well)?

The $$abc$$ conjecture says the following.

For any (arbitrarily small) $$\epsilon\gt 0$$, there exists a (large enough but fixed) constant $$C_\epsilon$$ such that each triplet of relatively prime (i.e. having no common divisors) integers $$a,b,c$$ that satisfies $a+b=c$ the following inequality still holds:$\Large \max (\abs a, \abs b, \abs c) \leq C_\epsilon \prod_{p|(abc)} p^{1+\epsilon}.$ That's it. I used larger fonts because it's still a key inequality of this blog entry. Morally, the conjecture says that the ratio of $$c$$, the maximum of $$|a|,|b|,|c|$$ where we assume $$a+b=c$$ but also positiveness of all these numbers, and $$abc$$, with all copies of prime factors removed and exponentiated to the power of $$1+\epsilon$$ arbitrarily close to 1, is bounded.

## Tuesday, April 21, 2020 ... //

### A negative price of oil futures

The global hysteria surrounding the Chinese cold has locked and wrecked a big part of the world economy. Among other things, the oil price dropped to the vicinity of $18-$25. However, aside from the "spot price", companies and people also trade the "futures", effectively bets on the future price at the moment of the expiry of that future.

You could have bought these barrels for a dollar or two, and also for minus one dollar or minus $5,000. And something shocking happened to the Crude Oil WTI (U.S.) Front Month Futures last night. The price went from the "high" of +$16.74 towards +$3 and then +$2 and then +$1... After some minutes of hesitation, it did reach +$0.01 per barrel. I really mean a penny for that huge cylinder. As a theorist, I was extremely curious whether the price was allowed to go negative.

And it did (people who watched things carefully did notice that the exchange did allow the negative values some time ago). Minutes were enough to probe –$1 but some moments later, the daily minimum of –$37.63 was set. It was oscillating between that minimum and –$20 for a while. Hours later, it apparently went above zero again, showing +$1.35 per barrel now.

## Sunday, April 19, 2020 ... //

### Hysteria about the unknown long-term effects of the virus

The most widespread "subtype" of the global Covid-19 hysteria is the worry that "we will all die" or at least "the number of Covid-19 fatalities will be staggering".

Since the beginning, careful thinkers among us knew this to be nonsense: the case fatality rate clearly isn't "dramatically" different from that of flu. It was clear to some of us from the beginning that lots of mild cases were and are completely overlooked which is why the probability of death assuming an infection is correspondingly lower than naively expected. A Stanford study in the Santa Clara County, California, says that it's lower by a factor of 50-85. The actual probability of death from Covid-19 is surely way below 1%

Also, we see that the exponential growth of the cases or fatalities cannot ever continue. From the moment of reaching e.g. "one death per million people", every nation or city may see at most 4-5 weeks of growth and then the disease starts to stagnate and decrease. Yitzhak Ben Israel, a famous Israeli scientist, observed that the pattern of the deaths is pretty much universal, regardless of policies.

So it seems clear that Lombardy (and similarly heavily affected places) is the worst case scenario: some 0.1% of the population dies before the peak and some extra 0.1% after the peak. Typical places will have much less than 0.1% of deaths. The herd immunity is basically achieved at these places; one-third of Chelsea, a Hispanic working-class suburb in North of Greater Boston, has antibodies at this moment.

Even the "twice 0.1% of population dies" worst case scenario is equivalent to the doubling of the overall death rate for two months or a 10% increase per one year. And it's a one-time event – the following seasons are surely going to be weaker. Despite 2 months of the global shutdown and the unlimited hysteria (with 24-hour-long special broadcasts at many TV stations), the new virus still killed 3-4 times fewer people in the world than flu normally does during the average season (see a paper on different estimates of flu fatalities per year). Indeed, it's unfair to compare Covid-19 with flu because the former still cannot compete with the latter!

## Saturday, April 18, 2020 ... //

### Pirk: Covid-19 was a type of flu for me

Czech VIPs heart surgeon Jan Pirk (who has done some 7,000 heart surgeries) did an interview for Euro News dot CZ.

When I had a flu, I felt close to death, Covid-19 wasn't such a burden for my body, heart surgeon Pirk says

He was feeling lousy, he had a fever, intestinal problems, he didn't eat and slept all the time. However, he still insists that the coronavirus is a strain of the flu. "Despite the criticisms, I am not changing my view. In fact, when I compare the disease to the flu that I had three years ago, when I felt like dying, the coronavirus seems like a milder disease. We must realize that only Czechia has recorded 1500 flu fatalities in 2019," Prof Pirk (the chief physician of IKEM) claims in the exclusive interview for Euro News.

## Thursday, April 16, 2020 ... //

### The doubling time always gets longer and longer

Most of the people who try to think about Covid-19 seem to be utterly brainwashed by the villains on TV channels, the flatteners of the curves, and assorted crackpots, liars, and terrorists. But it always shocks me when I see the people whom I expect to know better who also parrot some deep misconceptions.

OK, we were talking about the influence of the mandatory masks on the growth or decrease of the epidemics. And someone told me "but the disease started to decrease already before March 18th", the date when Czechia introduced the mandatory masks. Now, the words "disease decreases" aren't really well-defined but the claim that the "disease either slowed or decelerated" before March 18th seems obviously wrong to me.

Before March 18th, we were really consistently going from units of cases to thousands of cases. So what sort of a "slowdown" could you possibly refer to during the period that looked like an exponential growth? I wondered why it wasn't obvious to someone else. What did he mean by the "slowdown before March 18th?"

## Wednesday, April 15, 2020 ... //

### T2K: neutrinos have a CP-violating phase

Evidence increased to 3 sigma, published in Nature

Swampland: McNavara and Vafa argue that in $$d\geq 4$$ quantum gravity, because of the swampland thinking and the lack of adjustable parameters, baby universes are possible but only if their wave function is unique i.e. a Hartle-Hawking wave function.
The six quarks $$(u,c,t;d,s,b)$$ have six masses which are eigenvalues. But the up-type quarks, mass eigenstates, aren't exactly $$SU(2)$$ partners of the down-type quarks, mass eigenstates. Instead, they are related by the CKM matrix$\begin{bmatrix} d^\prime \\ s^\prime \\ b^\prime \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} V_{ud} & V_{us} & V_{ub} \\ V_{cd} & V_{cs} & V_{cb} \\ V_{td} & V_{ts} & V_{tb} \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} d \\ s \\ b \end{bmatrix}.$ The $$3\times 3$$ matrix is a $$U(3)$$ matrix which would have 9 independent parameters but 5 may be eliminated by changing the phases of the 6 eigenstates (one overall change of all these phases doesn't change the $$U(3)$$ matrix). The remaining 4 parameters are equivalent to 3 parameters of an $$SO(3)$$ rotation matrix decorated with an extra complex CP-violating phase $$\delta_{13}$$ which is about $$1.2\pm 0.1$$ radians.

The $$SO(3)$$ part of the CKM matrix is approximately$\begin{bmatrix} 0.9743 \pm 0.0002 & 0.2253 \pm 0.0007 & 0.0035^{+0.0002}_{-0.0001} \\ 0.2252 \pm 0.0007 & 0.9734 \pm 0.0002 & 0.041^{+0.001}_{-0.001} \\ 0.0087^{+0.0003}_{-0.0003} & 0.040^{+0.001}_{-0.001} & 0.99915^{+0.00002}_{-0.00005} \end{bmatrix}.$ Now, just like there are 3+3 species of quarks, there are 3+3 leptons – three charged leptons and their corresponding neutrinos $$(e^-,\mu^-,\tau^-;\nu_e, \nu_\mu, \nu_\tau)$$.

## Tuesday, April 14, 2020 ... //

### Maldacena: coronas of some magnetic black holes restore the electroweak symmetry

Juan Maldacena may have won a \$10 million bet by placing the following picture in his new paper.

The paper is titled Comments on magnetic black holes and Maldacena is very playful: the picture above is simplified and reprinted as Figure 4b.

## Monday, April 13, 2020 ... //

### Herd immunity assuming the co-existence of different R0 regions

Most of the blog posts in recent two months were about Covid-19; I am sure that not everyone likes it. A month or two before the scientific public (and an even longer time before the general public) has figured it out, the TRF folks understood that Covid-19 is effectively just another variation of flu (and should be treated as such; this remains the most important divisive point that separates the sensible people from the hysterical demagogues), it's probably significantly older than from December 2019, flattening of curves doesn't save any lives, almost all similar restrictions are just wastes of money, what is really effective is to isolate the vulnerable and leave the free world for the resilient, the economic suicide and the enthusiasm around it is shocking, lockdowns seem harmful by the empirical data, viral doses matter for fatality rates and probably are increased by lockdowns, masks are more effective than restrictions of people's movement for the reduction of the basic reproduction number R0, and dozens of other key points.

Zoom in by the mousewheel, the map carries the information about the U.S. states and other things, too. Full screen.

In recent days, it becomes empirically clear that numerous countries have peaked as well – and they did so because they have reached the herd immunity calculated for the value of R0 coming from their recent policies, see e.g. this claim about Lombardy where the drop of the deaths in recent days was staggering (from 458 to 110 if you cherry-pick days a little bit).

## Sunday, April 12, 2020 ... //

### Fred Singer: 1924-2020

I only learned the sad news today: the A1-class atmospheric physicist Fred Singer died in his sleep (that's how you want to do it) on April 6th. He was 95.5. I was fortunate to know him closely since 2007.

See Marc Sheppard's "My Long Good-Bye to S. Fred Singer" in the American Thinker.

He was born to a rather stereotypical Jewish family in Vienna: his mother was a homemaker while his father was a jeweler. During the Anschluss of Austria, he was 14 and eligible for a children's transport. In England, he became a teenage optician. He emigrated to Ohio, the U.S., and became a U.S. citizen in 1944. But at that moment, he already had his 1943 bachelor degree in electrical engineering. In 1944, he also added A.M. from Princeton University. Think twice about the speed of his academic progress (that took place on the background of those rather serious political and personal events: he would be surely sent to a gas chamber at the moment of his Princeton A.M. degree if he failed to emigrate a few years earlier, compare it with the snowflakes of 2020 who want to get everything for free because they believe that they're a group that is discriminated against and someone has frowned at them).

He continued at that famous New Jersey school and got his PhD for cosmic ray showers in 1948. You might know some names from his PhD defense committee. Singer's adviser was John Wheeler and his committee included Niels Bohr and J. Robert Oppenheimer. Nice.

### April 11th deaths per million people vs lockdown

Sweden is doing very well and the advantage may become even much clearer in days

On the Worldometers.com coronavirus website, you may get lots and lots of basic numbers describing the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemics in the world and in individual countries. Let us look at the Covid-related deaths reported by various large and/or Western enough countries for April 11th (Saturday) and their translation to the "per capita" basis.

We primarily want to see whether the lockdown helps.

## Saturday, April 11, 2020 ... //

### Most Czech physicians consider permeation desirable and/or unavoidable

The fake news media have acquired so much influence – and the ordinary people have become so incredibly gullible and robbed of the last traces of critical thinking – that the talking heads are able to confuse a large portion of the Westerners – and perhaps a majority – and make them believe that the laymen's irrational and unscientific superstitions are the solid science and vice versa.

So the inkspillers have persuaded millions that the scientists believe that there is a big problem with quantum mechanics or string theory or a fatal threat posed by climate change. In the context of the coronavirus hysteria, the media have misled millions into believing that the medical experts believe that "Covid-19 is on par with the Martian invasion, not with flu", and that "the lockdown is a must". The reality is pretty much the other way around. The more you know about medicine and biology, the more you realize that Covid-19 is similar enough to flu, and should be thought of (and fought against) as some cousin or variation of flu, and the more you agree with the observation that the society has overreacted and the shutdown of the society is absolutely unjustifiable by this infectious disease i.e. the more you agree that the cure has been worse than the disease.

## Thursday, April 09, 2020 ... //

### Lodi vs Bergamo: an amazing collapse of a pro-lockdown argument

A few weeks ago, Twitter has overwhelmed my timeline with self-evidently deluded tweets by tons of braindead users who were clearly just copying from each other. The tweets looked like this one:

Great. Let's look what is going on here. Start with this map of Lombardy's provinces.

You may read some basic history in this article at the Guardian. The basic story is simple. The Lodi province saw the earliest outbreaks and was locked down on February 23rd. Bergamo was locked down much later, on March 10th (with some preliminary policies on March 8th), i.e. 14-16 days later.

According to the meme, Lodi (an early locked area) did much better because it "flattened the curve" and all these nonsensical buzzwords. So it must surely be better by now, a lower number of infections per million people, right?

### Prague ex-mayor Bém would open the economy quickly

Prague ex-mayor Pavel Bém, a psychiatrist mainly dealing with addiction, the main political father of the huge Blanka tunnel, and a conquerer of Mount Everest is the only person in the world whom I know "mostly mutually" (well, we did chat for an hour in the Mozart Café in December) and who has been tested positive on Covid-19 – after he returned from Canada and insisted on his test. He has no symptoms.

Here is a 16-minute-long interview he gave to a radio station, Radio Z. Even if you don't understand Czech, I think that you must agree that the host, Ms Helena Šulcová, is much more polite and pleasant than the [beep beep] that you may typically see on [beep beep] such as the CNN.

Pavel Bém, ex-mayor of Prague, a psychiatrist and an an addictologist, is the guest of the Morning with Helena Šulcová. Mr Bém, we learned from the media that you were positively tested on Covid-19. Are you already healthy?

I don't know it yet [LOL, what a nice scientific answer: LM]. I assume that it is possible. But a test would have to confirm it and I will learn the results on Thursday [TRF today].

## Tuesday, April 07, 2020 ... //

### Czech PM may keep on moving towards Sweden, I hope

Czechia has seen an approximate 2-week stagnation of the new cases, see Onemocnění and the national WorldOmeters. The recent readings have been below 200 new cases a day (for a country of 10 million; the Monday morning figure was even 116), below the high of 380 around March 26th.

This trend which may look like a "minor, statistically insignificant deceleration" is likely to be statistically significant because the testing went up from 4,000 in average 2 weeks ago to 6,000 in average now. Czechia has right below 5,000 cases, some 80 deaths, 130 cured, 400 hospitalized (7% of known cases) including 84 serious (1.7% of known cases). Sweden, another country of 10 million, has no lockdown and 7,000 cases, almost 500 deaths, 200 cured, 600 serious cases. So all the "serious" counts are higher by a factor of 7, still not bad because those are still below the annual fatalities (and serious cases) caused by flu in the same Sweden.

## Saturday, April 04, 2020 ... //

### Mochizuki's proof gets officially published

The $$abc$$ conjecture is a hypothesis in number theory (i.e. a Fermat-last-theorem-style claim in mathematics) that sort of imposes a bound on $$abc$$ assuming $$a+b=c$$, i.e. it finds a fuzzy relationship between the sum and product of three integers. See TRF texts.

If someone is Japanese, it doesn't mean that he is not world class in seemingly "Western" activities such as in directing Antonín Dvořák's New World Symphony. In the video, the most fashionable part of the composition, Covidio Pandemio, erupts at 22:16. ;-)

Since 2012, Šiniči Močizuki has claimed a proof of this old problem in mathematics using his whole new technological toolkit called the Inter-Universal Teichüller theory (a smoother synonym: arithmetic deformation theory). The alleged proof is long and difficult. In 2018, criticisms by those who still hadn't understood the proof escalated.

I am not sure whether this multi-faceted proof is correct although I have understood some parts of the arguably clever approach. My feeling is that the theory is a refined version of "how can you permute primes in such a way that the additive relationships between their products change just a little, in some measure of the change". But I am sure that the widely hyped criticism of Mochizuki's proof – criticism revolving around the hatred towards "Corollary 3.12" – is incorrect. In effect, that criticism says, using physics jargon,

You cannot ever use gauge-variant (non-gauge-invariant) quantities at intermediate steps of your derivations.
Well, that's rubbish, Ladies and Gentlemen. Both in physics and mathematics, gauge invariance is useful exactly because it can be used and should be used and it makes lots of derivations prettier and more effective. In physics, gauge invariance is needed for a manifestly Lorentz-invariant description of spin-1 particles. At the end, we can only measure gauge-invariant observables but it's important that this condition is imposed at the very end, "inside the apparatus". All the intermediate calculations may use gauge-variant quantities and it's a very powerful thing to do.

## Friday, April 03, 2020 ... //

### Financial illiteracy of pro-shutdown folks is staggering

There is a fraction of the people who completely understand that the "cure" is worse than the "disease" (COVID-19). Candace Owens, Peter Hitchens, Lord Sumption, RJ Smith, perhaps Laura Ingraham, Brit Hume, I could consider for a while.

The lockdowns and the excessive social distancing culture is clearly killing the whole civilization. The animation above is a sort of black humor (the graph gets vertically compressed almost 20-fold in the last steps) but, as Sheldon Cooper has said, it's funny because it is true. It shows how, for half a century, during all the "famous recessions" and wars and big hurricanes, there were those 345,000 new unemployed Americans a week in average. But the last two weekly numbers were 3+ million and 6.7 million, respectively.

### F-theory with non-small Hodge numbers predicts a rich dark sector or a new stabilization mechanism

Mirjam Cvětičová plus Halverson, Lin, and Long (Slovenia+UPenn, CERN, Northeastern, Cornell) managed to post the first hep-th paper during the earliest possible second, like so many papers did before. I would be interested in their algorithm to adjust the timing of pressing "enter" at the sub-second precision. Surely this technology has made progress in recent 20 years. Do they connect the "enter" key to atomic clocks? ;-)

Constraints on Standard Model Constructions in F-theory
They prove that at least one of the following statements must be true in F-theory models:
1. The Hodge number $$h^{1,1}$$ is really small (not moderate or large)
2. A new stabilization mechanism outside the supergravity approximation, i.e. outside LVS-or-KKLT-like calculations, is employed
3. A new dark sector of particles attached to 7-branes is predicted
They have some rather specific F-theory models in mind, many of which have $$h^{1,1}=35$$ (from a polytope) which is counted as a "moderately" large value.

OK, they consider some compactification using the tools of SUGRA, need to cancel a tadpole, get some high enough contribution related to seven-branes, and the Standard Model and/or new dark sectors are shown to exist simultaneously at prime toric and/or square-free divisors. They discuss some examples of geometry and also try to derive the statistical distribution of the Standard Model couplings.

## Thursday, April 02, 2020 ... //

### Lockdowns are man-made, not how Nature heals Herself

Srikanth Hegde told us that the coronavirus hysteria isn't avoiding India. On the contrary. India – whose population is about 1.35 billion – has 1998 cases and 58 deaths now. So the virus is still basically non-existent there. The number of deaths per million people is 0.04. Compare it with Lombardy at 700. The ratio is about 18,000!

The practical non-existence of the virus in the country hasn't prevented hundreds of millions of Indians from getting hysterical – in a similar enough way that we know in the West. Almost two weeks ago, PM Modi told the whole nation to clap their hands. When 1.35 billion Indians manage to clap their hands, the virus would disappear. You may see that in cutting-edge technologies, India got ahead of China. Well, at least if we talk about technologies that were widespread when the humans were monkey-like savages.

## Wednesday, April 01, 2020 ... //

### Lombardy has probably already undergone 50% of the worst case scenario

O(50%) of the inhabitants could be immune by now

If you check the basic global Covid-19 data, you will see that Italy is safely the #1 country in the number of fatalities: 13,155 after the April 1st 6 pm update.

Italy has 60.5 million people and its first region that became a virally troubled zone, Lombardy – approximately the crimson area in the center of Northern Italy above – has 10 million people. It became so troubled because there are many Chinese textile workers over there. It got combined with the polluted air, multi-generation houses, and other aspects of their back luck.

### A slowdown of a rise of cases saves almost no lives

"Models" and people claiming otherwise are deceiving the public

There are lots of data, rapid societal changes, conceptual principles to discuss during these Covid-19 times. Finally someone has made the same rudimentary yet absolutely essential point that I have been emphasizing for more than a month (but never dedicated a special blog post to):

If your package of restrictive policies only manages to "slow down" the growth, it saves virtually no lives.
This point was made by Maria Chikina, assistant professor of molecular biology at Univ. of Pittsburgh, and Wesley Pegden, associate professor of mathematical sciences at Carnegie Mellon Univ.:
A call to honesty in pandemic modeling
Thanks to Čebyšev for the URL. I think that you must have seen these claims many times because they're everywhere. "Our measures have already saved 100,000 lives" or something like that. The only problem is that all these claims are lies.

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