Sunday, June 21, 2020

Libya: rooting for Egypt to beat Turkey

Egyptian president al-Sisi has advertised his opinion that Egypt (Northeast of Africa) has the right to visit Libya, its Western neighbor, and bring order to the country (the most well-known temporary would-be government of Libya, GNA, seems unable to do the basic things, not to mention that they are Turkey-funded and UN-supported jihadists who deserve their 72 virgins to be shoved down their aß). Al-Sisi thinks that he has the support of many other countries. He surely has the support of your humble correspondent. Like in 2017, I believe that Egypt still enjoys the support of the Visegrád countries.

I just keep on approximately watching the evolution of some countries and I believe that Egypt is doing well, at least comparably well as it did during Mubarak's rule, and it is also behaving decently towards European and other countries (unlike Turkey). As a PFNonwovens (textile) stockholder, I even think that Egypt guarantees good enough conditions for the Western business. Also, I greatly appreciated Naguib Sawiris, an Egyptian telco billionaire, who threatened to commit suicide if the insane lockdown continued.

See some relevant battlefront maps.

Now, Libya has 1.7 million squared kilometers and is much larger than Egypt at 1.0 million and Turkey at 0.8 million. According to population, Libya is an empty country (they don't have the Nile). It has less than 7 million while Turkey has 82 million and Egypt, the most populous country of the Arab world, has 98 million. Somewhat unfortunately, Turkey is the wealthiest country of the three and our NATO "ally". On the other hand, not that I would be a fan of that kingdom, Saudi Arabia stands on Egypt's side. And France (a NATO member) seems to back anti-jihadist General Haftar and stand against Turkey, too. More secretly, Israel is behind Haftar, too. Add Russia, Emirates, and Greece to the coalition.

Turkey demands $16 billion from Libya for something that I don't understand. My understanding is that it is purely ludicrous extortion and the Turk's aß should be properly spanked. As the video above shows, the military strengths of Turkey and Egypt are extremely comparable, with a similar number of men ready to fight, balance in the navy, Egypt's advantage in the tanks, Turkey's advantage in submarines and helicopters, and Turkey's huge infrastructure advantage (which wouldn't play a role because Egypt doesn't want to take over Turkey yet). Like the progress in many other countries, Turkey's progress was funded by debt so Turkey has a much higher debt than Egypt.

Perhaps more importantly, Egypt would have a geographic advantage if the question were whether Turkey or Egypt are going to control Libya. So my biggest worry would be that some insane deep state loons in the U.S. and other NATO countries would start to claim that NATO has to help Turkey in its aggression against Libya (and/or even Egypt itself) because Turkey is our NATO ally. If something like that happened, I would intensely root for my country's departure from NATO which would be turned to an insane pro-terrorist organization. Already now, our alliance with Turkey seems like a bizarre anachronism to me.

On the other hand, the de facto (or even de jure) integration of Libya into Egypt would represent a huge progress for North Africa. Libya has been wrecked by the atrocious Obama administration for a generation. I feel co-responsible for the insane things that we allowed the likes of Hillary Clinton to do in Libya and we may have the moral duty to undo it, at least by rooting for Egypt to restore some decency in Libya. The current Egyptian political system represents an independent rule of a nation over its natural territory and it works well – which is why it's desirable for such a system to expand to other territories and to supersede their systems that do not work.

One of the nice side effects would be that many Libyans would be taught how to walk properly. I had to listen to this (otherwise nice) song all the time when I was being forced to dance rock'n'roll properly (in the late 1980s), a mostly futile effort, of course. ;-) Note that around 1:53 in the video above, even Libya's Gaddafi was forced to walk like an Egyptian.

Via Seznam Covid maps

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