Monday, September 28, 2020

Coronazis' anti-Swedish propaganda gets hardcore

Sweden is a good example of a country that has enforced virtually no Covid restrictions, has never shut down its schools etc. but it did much better than other European countries, both medically and economically. Brazil had a mixed regime after extensive disagreements between the sensible president and many crazy local politicians but it still did better than almost everyone in Latin America. Belarus is the best example, however. It didn't impose any restrictions, neither centrally nor locally, and it only has 800 deaths now (almost 10 million people) and the expected GDP drop for 2020 is just 2.3%.

Well, it is super-tempting to compare Sweden (10.2 million people) with Czechia (10.7 million people). My Czech homeland has enforced an early and rather rigorous lockdown in the spring. Along with Slovaks, we were the first white nations to introduce mandatory face masks. For months, they were needed even outside. Restaurants and tons of businesses "interacting with the people" were shut down for 1.0-2.5 months, depending on the type, before the restrictions were lifted mostly in May. From July 1st to September 9th, we didn't need any face masks. In some respects, our lockdown was always relaxed, however. In particular, people were never terrorized for being outside (although, as I said, masks were needed even outside, for more than a month, and this duty was only gradually lifted for runners and then others).

You may compare the statistics of Sweden and Czechia on Worldsometers or the national statistics servers of Sweden and Czechia. Sweden has had 1.5 million tests, Czechia has had 1.3 million, almost the same. Sweden has had some 90k cases, Czechia has had 65k, it will also be the same in about two weeks (because Sweden has below 500 a day and Czechia is gonna have over 2500 in average).

It's the deaths that are very different. Sweden and Czechia count "deaths with Covid" (all that come close) which differs e.g. from Slovakia that only counts "deaths due to Covid" and an autopsy is often needed to decide. OK, Sweden has 5880 deaths so far, Czechia has 606. That's a difference of one order of magnitude. At the Worldsometers pages, you may use "view source" and find a nice list "3,3,2..." of all the numerical entries there which may be easily manipulated.

There are good reasons to think that Czechia will never reach Sweden's 6k deaths with Covid. I posted some numbers on Twitter: in the recent 7 days, Sweden shows 11 deaths in total while Czechia has had 94. From the low of 0.5 deaths a day in June or July, Czechia has regrown to about 12 deaths in a day (the new record is over 20 now) and this number may grow a little bit further, perhaps to 20 (with the next record around 30). But I think it will not reach Sweden's peak of 110 deaths per day. We've already seen a similar number of days of "acceleration" as Sweden needed to get to 110 at the beginning. I think that Czechia is close to the peak of "cases per day". Because the hospitalizations and deaths will keep on accumulating a little bit, I think we're near 50% of the maximum current hospitalizations (currently 800+), serious cases (currently 181), and deaths per day (~12).

Possible explanations of the lower number of deaths per day in Czechia relatively to Sweden in spring are

* a better protection of Czech seniors by the policies in the senior houses and hospitals
* better treatment by drugs than what we had in April (Remdesivir, isoprinosine, corticoids... may save 70% or more of the people who would otherwise die)
* some Czech immunity from spring (while Sweden had had nothing before spring)
* vaccination of the Czech seniors (decades ago) against tuberculosis
* almost absence of flu vaccination of seniors in Czechia
* somewhat more mongoloid genes that may help
* less deadly variants of the virus that became widespread
* behavior that makes the doses in Czechia lower

We can't really know the relative weight of these (and perhaps other) causes. At some level, the answer is not terribly important. It is pretty clear that the advantage will continue. So maybe Czechia will only have 1000-1500 deaths with Covid instead of Sweden's 6000 – and it will be marginally plausible to say that our efforts haven't been a "pure" waste of money and freedom, after all. By being able to actually decrease the daily cases from the spring peak of 350 to the summer low of 18 a day, we could have delayed the "main wave" by half a year (the "slowdown of still accelerated dynamics" only delayed things by days or weeks elsewhere which is completely worthless!) and this delay could have been substantial enough to pick some bounty from the improvements above (like better drugs).

But several commenters made it very clear that they really hate Sweden and are willing to say an arbitrarily insane lie to obfuscate the self-evident point that Sweden (where Covid has clearly ended, as the near-zero numbers of recent deaths and ICU hospitalizations prove very clearly) did the right decision while the other countries led by the Coronazis made a historically unprecedented blunder.

One of these Coronazis claimed that Sweden currently has vastly stricter restrictions than Czechia had in the spring. Wow. I just can't believe someone is capable of emitting such a self-evident and absolute lie. I really wish a terrible death to the people who are liars of this caliber. Just look at the policies in Sweden according to a page that is 3 days old.

You may travel to Sweden, everyone can get there, you need no tests to enter, you don't need to be quarantined. You don't need face masks anywhere in Sweden. The Swedish healthcare works great and it has never been overwhelmed. Restaurant, hotels, factories, everything works. The only restriction is public gatherings and events with 50+ people at one place. Police can disband them. It's questionable whether it's needed but it is really the only restriction there. Everything else are just vague recommendations of hygiene which people never exaggerate there.

How can someone compare these very tolerant rules with the concentration-camp-style regime that Czechia had in March and April? I just can't believe it, it is plain insane. Also, note that Swedes (and people from Sweden) can travel to an overwhelming majority of Europe now (see the map above). It is not surprising because Sweden is among the 2-3 countries of Europe with the lowest number of cases (per 1M people) in recent weeks. The propagation of the virus is really over there. To compare, Czechs can only travel to a minority of European countries now although we allow everybody here at this moment, except for Spaniards.

OK, the Coronazis love to lie about the fact that Sweden hasn't ever had any draconian lockdown (and shutdown of schools) and doesn't have one now, either. The detachment from reality is just unbelievable.

But some other Coronazi commenters picked even more hardcore lies. The most shocking one was that almost all the 5880 Swedish deaths with Covid are state-sponsored murders of seniors i.e. killings that may only be called "euthanasia" as a matter of euphemisms. Wow. A pretty strong accusation, right? So what is these people's evidence?

One of them said that they found evidence that a senior was given morphine and another senior wasn't given an oxygen treatment. Wow, this is enough for them to claim that Sweden runs a government program to intentionally exterminate thousands of seniors. There are very good reasons why people with lots of pain are being given morphine; and there are many reasons not to connect patients to high pressure oxygen. It really doesn't help in most cases. How can these two innocent and almost tautological observations – that someone gets drugs to tame the disease; and someone isn't connected to a very special, controversial method of treatment – show the intentional extermination of seniors?

Another Coronazi used a numerical "proof". The Swedish statistical page shows that 2599 patients have made it through ICUs but 5880 have died. Because the number of deaths exceeds the ICU counter, it shows that the patients were deliberately not treated and "euthanized" instead. Wow.

Needless to say, the idea that the ICU counter has to surpass the death counter is completely wrong. It doesn't exceed it even in Czechia (we have over 600 deaths with Covid and most people who have been to ICUs with Covid are still there because the current number 181 is a result of a fast recent acceleration). This inequality ("ICUs must be greater than deaths") would only be demonstrably true if all people only died after they were moved to an ICU. ;-) But now, imagine that people outside ICUs cannot die. If that is the case, it would be pretty stupid for a patient to allow doctors to move him to an ICU where he actually can die, right? Here I am not sure whether the claim is due to malice or immense stupidity. It may be the latter. But if someone is stupid enough to think that people can't die outside ICUs, it's almost as bad as the malicious intent. ICUs are just additional tools to save lives and health. They are not tools to super-maximize or localize the number of deaths. ;-)

On top of that, you may see that Czechia has a larger number of deaths than the number of "ICU alumni", too. It has lots of reasons. Some people are really old and ill and they die outside ICUs because the doctors consider the ICU to be too demanding for their organism. That simply happens, in many very serious cases, an ICU may be more damaging than the life with a virus outside ICU. Another group of deaths with Covid outside ICUs are somewhat accidental deaths. Someone simply has a Covid-positive test and perhaps an extra disease or two or three, too. He may die in the regular hospital bed or completely outside a hospital – and will be counted as a death with Covid. Because ill people are more likely to be Covid-tested, they are overrepresented among the provably Covid-positive people, too. Czechia has over 30,000 active Covid cases now, it is 0.3% of the nation (the actual percentage of currently Covid-infected Czechs is surely much higher than 0.3%, perhaps 5%). It also means that at least 0.3% of the deaths (1 per day) in this era are "accidental deaths with Covid", even if Covid had nothing to do with it. Because the "likely to die" people are more likely to be tested, you should actually expect much more than 1 death a day from this "almost totally accidental mechanism" of getting deaths with Covid.

So the Coronazis denied that Sweden has kept its let-it-be policies; and they accused the Swedish government of deliberately murdering thousands of seniors, with two totally idiotic "arguments" to support this far-reaching accusation.

But the most popular talking point by these insufferable Coronazi šitheads is the talking point that Sweden doesn't have any herd immunity at all. Just look at the Swedish graphs. The right center and lower right graphs are "daily new ICU cases" and "daily deaths". You see that both peaked around mid April and then started to slow (the daily numbers began to decrease). So herd immunity has really been present in Sweden since mid April. It was actually the early April because it takes a week after you're infected to get to the hospital and some 2 weeks to die if you're unlucky. (The apparent later peak in the "number of cases" in the upper right corner is a misleading artifact of the growing number of tests. The percentage of positive tests peaked much earlier than the number of daily positive tests did. Quite generally, the "number of cases" is always misleading and may be affected by methodological tricks that have nothing to do with the underlying strength of the virus, especially by the variable number of tests but also by the degree to which the tests focus on the "likely to be infected" groups.)

Again, Sweden has really reached herd immunity in early April. Herd immunity doesn't mean that the disease instantly disappears. It means that it is statistically expected to quasi-exponentially fade away because the R0 corrected for the immunity of potential victims is smaller than one. And indeed, the disease was fading away (almost linearly!) up to the early August when it already looked like the current "near-zero noise". In the near-zero noise, a demagogue may pick a random fluctuation and claim that it is surely a "new wave". The statitical noise is "large" now, relatively speaking, because the overall daily numbers are so tiny. That's a room for demagogues and their cherry-picking and misinterpretation of noise.

But what cannot be explained in this way is the long and systematic drop of Covid-19 in Sweden between April and August. Just look at the graphs. Nothing substantial has changed about Sweden in this period relatively to late March. But the disease was quickly increasing in March and dropping since April! It was decreasing in April, May, June, July, and August, and perhaps in September, if I need to remind you about the names of the months in Latin. So there have been some "effective laws" that were pushing the numbers down in April, in May, in June, in July, and in August. The laws of nature don't really change so you are still statistically expected to get a decrease now, too. There are some sources of Covid-19, including the people who arrive to Sweden now, so the disease won't drop much below this "near-zero noise". But only a very, very stupid person can fail to see that something has been and still is systematically pushing the disease towards zero, and if the Swedes' behavior will be at least slightly equivalent to what it was in April, May, June, July, and August, they may restart the decrease again, whenever needed, because the "force that makes the virus fade away" is still there. And what matters is that the behavior in these 5 months in Sweden was totally sustainable, unlike the behavior of many other nations that turned off huge portions of the economy, among other things. Of course I think that they should allow the events again.

These liars, demagogues, and authors of insane conspiracy theories and nasty accusations are teamed up with much of the media that keeps this garbage alive even if the media sometimes avoid the worst stuff. We need to fight the garbage that is crippling our civilization in this way. We need to liberate our nations from this nasty, dishonest, devastating filth much more than we need to fight against a flu-like virus.

And that's the memo.

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