Friday, September 18, 2020

Czechia, Israel have many more daily "cases" per 1M than any Covid powers ever had

...and still nothing is happening...

The radical leftists have rebranded themselves as carriers of the gospel that a flu-like disease named Covid-19 will kill everybody and they made billions of gullible sheep obsessed with the number of "cases" which means positive tests. So all the media for morons have been filled with irrelevant factoids about XY "cases" in this or that country, in the world, during a day, week, or month, "cases" surpassing one psychological threshold or another.

Only top immunologists etc. in countries like mine (e.g. Dr Beran) got the opportunity from the media to explain something that the people should actually know from the high school biology. There is nothing worrisome about a "case" (a positive test). It doesn't mean that the person is actually ill. And the tests on similar viruses including flu would end up positive in a far higher percentage of the tests. Moreover, the number of positive tests is an irrelevant number because it's heavily dependent both on the total number of tests that are being done (and that is always much lower than the full population); and the methodology to choose who gets tested (because the more "suspicious" people you test, e.g. the contacts of recent positive tests, the higher percentage will be positive).

OK, Czechia became a top country that became a target of the far left inkspillers' bogus story about the new Armageddon. So many "cases"! Needless to say, nothing medically anomalous is taking place in my country. People continue their normal lives, businesses and markets on the Pilsen Republic Square work just fine, there are no face masks outside, people don't wash their hands (but unlike Indians, we use toilets for certain acts), and there is no social distancing in an overwhelming majority of cases. Of course, this behavior is related to the "disappearance of fear" among Czechs and of course, the huge acceleration in the number of cases is a consequence of that relaxed behavior.

How many "cases" Czechia records every day? Sometime in May, Czechia had as little as 18 "cases" per day but that was a weekend day when the number of tests was as low as 3,000 (3k from now on). We were getting ~50 during weekdays, anyway, a big drop from the spring high of 377 cases per day on March 27th (March 1st was our first case).

July and August saw no restrictions for 99% of Czechs and the cases were only slowly growing, giving just 251 on August 31st. However, children got back to school, they can still spread some low doses, and the disease was bound to accelerate, also due to some colder weather. So the number of cases grew almost monotonically from 251 on August 31st to 3123 yesterday which placed Czechia on the 6th place in Europe, after Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, and UK and ahead of Germany and many other much larger nations LOL. I think that there's quite some room for further growth in the following days and we could surpass 4000 today. Some 18k tests were done yesterday (near record; 8k was normal during the summer days) and the percentage of positive ones, when repeatedly tested persons are eliminated, was reported to be as high as 20.1%. ;-) That's of course a point at which the "search for the virus" becomes a farce because the right result of the search is "everywhere".

Divide 3123 by the population which is 10.7 million (10.7M) for Czechia. You get 292 daily cases per million citizens. It is not hard to see that it is far higher than what any major "Covid hell" has ever had. There's one brotherly country that can beat Czechia. Israel whose population is 8.9M had 6063 cases a day two days ago. The number of cases per million people is about twice as high as in Czechia but Israel tends to perform thrice as many tests as Czechia so the percentage of positive tests may be lower there.

You may easily see that Czechia's 3k cases a day or Israel's 6k a day is far higher (per 1M people) than almost all the records of the leading countries by cases. The US had at most 79k a day which is less than 30 times the Czech 3k, so clearly Czechia wins. India's maximum was always below 100k per day so it's obviously lower per 1M people than Czechia. Brazil is the only exception: it peaked at 71k cases a day (July 22nd) which is some 15% higher (when divided by 209.5M Brazilians) than the Czech reading from yesterday. But Israel obviously beats Brazil.

It's more amusing and easier to see how Czechia trumps all the other European countries now. Russia has 145 people (14 times Czechia) but its highest was about 12k cases a day (just 4 times Czechia). The highest number of daily cases in Spain, France, the UK, Italy, Germany, Ukraine, Romania, Belgium, Holland, Sweden was 11k, 11k, 8k (or 6k if a fluke is omitted), 6k, 7k, 4k, 1700, 2500, 1800, 1700, respectively. Czechia beats all the nations of a similar size and competes with the much higher ones, too.

The higher number of positive tests is partly due to the testing approach which is more focused on the likely contacts of the recent positive cases; partly due to the real underlying phenomenon caused by the Czechs' relaxed behavior. But nothing much is happening in the hospitals and in the everyday life. The mean number of deaths with Covid could be around 6 per day in average now (we had dozens of deathless days during the summer, they are very unlikely now but the recent one was just days ago); the total is 489 so far; 413 hospitalized including 91 serious is just reaching the spring highs (450, 108) by the rate (50,5) per day or so.

So nothing remarkable is happening in Czechia at all. The "cases" are a totally irrelevant distraction.
I am amazed and shocked by the number of people around me and further from me who have bought this completely fake pseudoscientific news that "we must worry about the rising number of cases". I think it is a sign of a catastrophic degeneration of nations and the human race when people are this stupid and all these people have failed in a test of the lifetime. It is not possible for me not to despise them. Even if the disease were very serious, and it's not, one should face it instead of hiding from it and whining.

I think it is common sense that if we allow the disease to accelerate more quickly in Czechia than in other countries, it will also end more quickly even though the total percentage of people who will have underone the disease (like \(1-1/R_0\)) will be a bit higher (but a doubling is obtained in some 5-7 days so if we need an extra doubling, it's just some added 5-7 days to the active period of the epidemics, a shorter increase than the decrease that you get from the acceleration). The current variants of the virus are probably more contagious and the plan to turn our \(R_0\) which is "vastly higher than one" to one that is below one again looks utterly unrealistic. The country hasn't officially adopted the herd immunity approach although the bulk of the independently thinking medical elite thinks that we should. So the government is still formally "fighting" (even the emergency team, the state of emergency, and masks outside could be restored by the government; but I still hope that Babiš won't allow another lockdown on businesses let alone a stay-home order) but it is clear that the virus is in control now and I think that the prime minister has scientifically literate people who do tell him that this is the case and any fight is futile.

Given this impressive rate of spreading, I find it very likely that other European nations will see the acceleration, perhaps weeks or months later, too. It's generally futile to try to hide from this virus. It's really just a stupid flu, as top Czech singer Lucie Bílá (the winner of many Czech Nightingales called it in a video informing about her having contracted that virus). The insight that it's a stupid flu virus that isn't a valid justification for an extraordinary suppression of civil rights is really widespread among the Czech elite and normal people, too. Jaromír Jágr was among the famous athletes who disagreed with any restrictions that another hockey player called "harassment just like before 1989". But there are still some people in Czechia, perhaps 20%, who are either genuinely terrified by this disease or who enjoy abusing this flu even though they know that it is not a very important disease per se. These people are around us, they may be our sellers, our clients, our students, our teachers, our voters – everyone is exposed to their attitude which often leads to incredible anxiety or hostility.

P.S.: Too bad, Israel became the first country in the world who started the second nationwide lockdown. I sincerely hope that our prime minister won't dare to join our Jewish brothers. Israel has currently over 580 serious cases, we are below 100, it is not the same thing (and of course, the lockdown is totally wrong in Israel, too).

P.S. 2: Our 6 pm Friday statistics showed just 1000+ positive cases today, down from 1700+ yesterday at 6 pm, despite having 22k+ tests. Fatalities jumped just by 5 (4 of which today), (413,91) hospitalizations, serious increased to (480,93). The serious cases grow more slowly but it may be because it often takes time for patients to get serious. Nevertheless, the numbers remain very small relatively to the hospital beds (50k, 5k) where 5k is 1500 ICU plus 3500 ARO beds.

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