Saturday, January 30, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Czechia had fewer deaths in 2020 than in 1990

By 0.1%-0.3% from the truly absolute numbers + 0.3% from the extra day of a leap year + 0.4% from the population growth

Up to a moment in October 2020, I tended to believe that Czechia (and many other countries) wouldn't see a significant increase in the total number of deaths per year (2020). It became clear to me when the first self-evidently elevated numbers from late September 2020 were coming out at this web page of the Czech Statistical Office (and especially in this table; you should download an updated version of the "tab" file if you read this text after January 2021). Suddenly, it was clear that the deaths with Covid were mostly real extra deaths due to Covid, indeed.



The graph is taken from this page of the Czech Statistical Office where I picked the maximum interval 1814-2019. The year 2020 will add a death dot at the level of the 1990 death dot. Imagine that I spent 5 minutes by editing the picture above.

The worst weeks of 2020 brought us ~4,200 deaths instead of 2,100 deaths which is normal in a week, a true doubling. Surrounding months saw 3,000 per week or so, the increase by 50 percent or so.

Friday, January 29, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Energy conservation holds in quantum mechanics

Sometimes (and increasingly often), totally wrong and dumb papers are accepted by arXiv.org. An example is a quant-ph paper

Energy Non-Conservation in Quantum Mechanics
by Sean M. Carroll and Jackie Lodman which should have prevented the authors from passing the most elementary undergraduate course of quantum mechanics but it didn't. Instead, we live in the era when the mass media are intensely misinforming and indoctrinating the readers so you may read a promotion of this pseudoscience at the moderately widely read blog of the male co-author.

OK, they claim that the only meaningful conservation of energy in quantum mechanics is the conservation of the expectation value of the Hamiltonian; that this is violated; that this violation can be arbitrarily large; that this violation cannot be attributed to the energy of the observer or the apparatus; and that the "many-worlds interpretation" makes all these questions more controllable. Each of the five statements is absolutely and fundamentally wrong.

Thursday, January 28, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

GameStop: the steps that deflated the bubble are even more outrageous than the bubble itself

I didn't expect Wild West financial market trading of masses to be a flavor of the first weeks of the new far left regime in the U.S. However, as I described in the previous blog post, "anti-shortseller activists" at Reddit WallStreetBets have targeted several stocks and drove their prices to insane levels. They included mainly GME, AMC, NOK, BB, and BBBY. Nokia is the only one in the list whose current price remained close to the widely perceived intrinsic value; BlackBerry is second. The rest are just insane bubbles created by the kids who put their life savings whatever the price is, just like what they have done with Tesla and Bitcoin.



GameStop Corp, a network of outdated videotape and game media shops in the dirty passages, became the most important target of the group. The stock price was a bit below $20 on the first days of 2021; some hedge funds thought it was still too much. If you click at the hyperlink in this paragraph, you will see the incredible growth up to $470 earlier today (the price doubled in a day and it has done so many times). Because the company has 70 million shares, the two numbers translate to $1.4 billion and $33 billion, respectively. Yes, by capitalization, the GameStop company became a bit bigger than Nokia itself. Well, it is no longer the case.

Tuesday, January 26, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

WallStreetBets Reddit & Robinhood: a herd distorting the markets

Even a broken herd may be right about once a decade

I have been aware of the insane Tesla and Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) bubbles which show how (mostly) the Millennial generation makes the markets – or at least the price discovery – dysfunctional. But those are just the most extreme tips of an iceberg. This new culture of hyper-conformist obedient sheep that are tied to the social media has an effect on many other corners of the financial markets.

Well, sometimes the effect may be healthy and push the prices towards fairer values (but I believe that it is mostly a coincidence when it is so).



For some time, I have been aware of the Robinhood trading platform. I didn't pay much attention to it. It looked like another platform – why should it matter what you use to trade your stocks and options? You should register at robinhood.com and download the app there (Robinhood may be found in the app store). There are alternatives (such as Webull, also search) but it seems that "virtually everyone" who belongs to the sheep culture simply must use Robinhood.

Sunday, January 24, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Petr Kellner's transactions look like pure, clever, and ethical capitalism to me

Petr Kellner is the wealthiest Czech. A Forbes list shows his current net worth as CZK 293 billion (USD 1 = CZK 21.5 now; so it is $13.6 billion). The following four men, Vítek, Křetínský, Babiš (the prime minister), and Komárek, only have CZK 86-71 billion.



Kellner became his convincing journey towards being an almost crown billionaire soon after the Velvet Revolution when he founded some PPF funds that participated in the voucher privatization (only 11th by size at that time). By now, he has lots of assets in Russia and China (he probably wants to exit the latter because it's not really safe), especially the global Home Credit company. In Czechia, by now, he has acquired either 100% stakes or majorities in the O2 big telecommunication company, Cetin the telecom infrastructure, Air Bank, Home Credit CZ and SK, Czech Pojišťovna Insurance (with Generali), CETV with the largest commercial TV NOVA, Škoda Transportation making trams and trains here in Pilsen, a CZK 0.25 billion horse for his daughter that Bill Gates couldn't afford, and lots and lots of other things (in his PPF Group).

Saturday, January 23, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Why should we be afraid of the new Joe Biden Administration?

By 2nd President of the Czech Republic Václav Klaus

The unexpected, violent, albeit totally chaotic, disorganized, planning nothing and signalling nothing incursion of the Trump supporters (but also all other groups that love any attack against the official institutions, regardless of their ideological underpinnings) into the U.S. Capitol has diplaced all the serious and highly desirable debate about the new president. Biden has been successfully "promoted" to a position that cannot be debated and cannot be criticized and this promotion was an amazing move, whether it was preplanned or it just exploited the events a posteriori.

Thursday, January 21, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Parasites, retards, scum, terrorists gained full power in the U.S.



I don't consider myself an optimist but I did hope that some adults in the room would emerge after the rigged 2020 U.S. presidential election and prevent the inauguration of the last leg of a full Democratic Party government in some way. It didn't happen. Trump escaped D.C. as if it were not a big deal. Genuine Americans were defeated, betrayed, and pißed upon by creatures that don't belong to the U.S. at all but they were able to take over the superpower, anyway. The destruction of the U.S. as it has existed since 1776 has utterly demoralized and demotivated me but my apparent impression that virtually no one seems to care about the actual castrophe is even worse.

If you are just another opportunist spineless rat, like millions of others, a rat that may even be willing to collaborate with the new powerful, you probably don't have a clue how much work had to be done by the people who have a moral compass to slow down the decline of the Western civilization in the recent decade or so, in the environment in which e.g. lying mentally defective teenage psychopaths exploit power tools that are stronger by orders of magnitude than anything that the decent people possess now.

Sunday, January 17, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Satoshi's (?) Tulip Trust is moving and I found a cool message

My confidence that Craig Wright is the creator of the Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, is comparable just to 50%. Sometimes it's higher, sometimes it's lower. But some entertaining and potentially exciting events occurred in recent days.

One year and three days ago, Craig Wright claimed to have received the private key from the "Tulip Trust" where over 1 million Bitcoin (currently worth over $35 billion) were hidden. He submitted a list of 16,405 public keys (Bitcoin wallets) where the wealth is supposed to be hiding to the courts. The addresses may be random addresses mined in the first years of the Bitcoin; but they may be addresses genuinely mined by Satoshi Nakamoto who may be Craig Wright (with or without Dave Kleiman or someone else).

Three days ago (exactly 1 year after Wright allegedly got his private keys), the first BTC 50 wallet obtained from an early block has moved:

BTC wallet 1DGWivpu9x1ZFkYJvhS91o1zp851CguPXB
Click at the link above. It's cool. With my time zone, the page says that the BTC 50 was mined (moved from the "Coinbase" which has nothing to do with the cryptoexchange, it's just a word for the ultimate Pilsner Urquell of the coins) on July 14th, 1789. OK, I mean 2010 but it was the Bastille Day, anyway. The revolution in France started in the afternoon; my page above says that the coins were mined at 13:04. It sounds OK for a revolution.

Friday, January 15, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

In Norway, the vaccines might kill more people than Covid itself

Even more extreme results may apply to Australia and others



A natural Norwegian cure for diseases is distilled six times.

Norway is an extremely rich Nordic country of 5.4 million people. Some of its profits come from oil – and they are already buying a greater number of electric cars than proper cars. If you want to save the Earth from the "evil" CO2, you first need to extract a sell a huge amount of fossil fuels! ;-)

The media have reported that Norway has vaccinated 33,000 people against Covid so far. Most of the vaccines were Pfizer; some were Moderna. It's being said that the vaccination "focused" on the elderly and vulnerable. Soon after the vaccination, 23 of these 33,000 died. In 13 of them, an autopsy has already showed that the vaccine was a contributing, basically decisive, factor.

Thursday, January 14, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

"Data scientists" don't have any expertise to determine Covid policies

It is absolutely shocking to watch the decay of the United States of America as we have known them since 1776. The degree of censorship and general terror against the political opposition already puts the U.S. among the 10 least free countries in the world. Donald Trump – the most impotant politician on Planet Earth – has been silenced on all well-known Internet servers. People are being fired from their jobs, these fired workers' Pavlik-Morozov-style defective kids are being financially rewarded for reporting that their parents support Trump, Trump has lost the business relationships, many other people lose their regular banking and other things. This already is on par with the Third Reich around 1938 or so.

Also, I watched the proceedings that led to the incredible 2nd impeachment of Donald Trump. It was unbelievable to hear so many fanatical piles of garbage (I mean the Democratic Party "lawmakers") that just parrot hysterical lies that other piles of garbage said before them – and they are earning half a million dollars or so for this kind of "work". I am utterly disgusted by tons of Americans whom I have known and who do literally nothing to save their country. And I am even terrified by folks like Donald Trump or Alex Jones who call for non-violence. I am sorry but to call for non-violence in these grave conditions is a breathtakingly irresponsible, basically criminal act, an outright surrender to pure and escalating evil.

Sunday, January 10, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Hard left at Google, Apple, Amazon teamed up to nuke Parler

Everone who has both a spine and a clue about politics is threatened and needs to fight real hard

Donald Trump still had two weeks of his presidency left but the toxic Stalinist stuff pretending to be human beings already had enough self-confidence to ban his accounts at Twitter (his main tool to communicate with the world's most important politician's constituents), Facebook, Instagram, and elsewhere. Imagine what they will be doing to him and others when he's actually out of the White House! An Online Night of Broken Glass followed; tons of very decent people saw their channels and profiles disappear. Many users who were accidentally left saw a substantial decrease of the number of followers (mine dropped 3%) and some of us were blaming the followers. "They must be traitors who unfollowed." No, they were victims who were nuked by the unhinged hard left herd and their fate was worse than the fate of a user who just saw a numerical decrease in the number of followers.

Needless to say, the excuses for this barbarian activity were complete lies. "Trump has incited violence", dumb people were led to believe, "so he must be treated just like these creatures' comrade Stalin treated the inconvenient people in the USSR." In reality, Trump has incited no violence. He only invited genuine Americans to Washington D.C. for a peaceful rally so that they could express their dissatisfaction with the self-evidently rigged election – much like some voters do in Belarus and elsewhere – and that's what happened. The protestors broke a few windows – and no one is sure who were the particular people who did it – and they could enter the Congress (a video shows that a cop invited them in), enjoying the office of a nasty witch and other places for a while. But a visit to the Congress is not violence, unlike the horror that the BLM, Antifa, and related terrorist organizations were making last summer. The only violence was done by the cops who killed four genuine Americans.

Friday, January 08, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

When they are effective, vaccines prevent transmission



They were dancing to the tune of song by Elán, a prominent Slovak rock band, about the Nurses of Kramáre (the largest Slovak hospital, in Bratislava, the Slovak capital) but these girls were actually students of a medical high school in Trenčín.

Coronazism revolves around the narrative that people have the duty to give up their freedom and most of the things that have made their lives worth living because if they don't,

they will meet someone who will meet someone who will meet someone who will meet someone who will die of Covid-19 due to this chain of infections.
And because the person who died couldn't have defended himself and he didn't agree to join the same chain that also includes the infected person on the first side of the chain, it was a manslaughter of a sort. Coronazis don't discuss how the guilt is supposed to be divided among the people in the long chain (and why the person who is worried hasn't moved to another planet if he doesn't want to voluntarily share the planet with the people who may be infected) but the argument above would be what they would offer if they had the brain to formulate explanations; and if they didn't have the arrogance to restrict the basic civil rights without a proper explanation.

In several examples in the history, the vaccines have slowed down the propagation of a disease and protected many people. But especially in the case of Covid-19, they do something else, too: they make the argument above invalid. Everyone who feels substantially threatened by the coronavirus (whether the fear is justified or not) may get vaccinated. I actually think that he should. If he doesn't, it means that he doesn't feel threatened and he voluntarily joins the society that wants to live in the old way where unintentional infections, especially in long and indirect chains like the chain above, are legal (and ethically OK). In the old society, unintentional infections are "allowed" simply because the opposite legal system, where one needs to prevent himself from infecting others unintentionally, leads to a precautionary behavior that is far too costly and such a cure is worse than the disease (at least worse than Covid-19).

Thursday, January 07, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Singularity of anti-meritocracy?

On the parasitic, omega-nary sector of the economy and the unavoidable backlash against this tumor

Socialism of the Soviet kind has brought stagnation and decline to my country and one-third of mankind, too. Things (I mostly mean the economy but not only the economy) weren't really getting better or at least the growth was much more sluggish than it was in the capitalist world. But nothing dramatic was happening. It was approximately true that the system simply stole the means of productions, structures, and know-how created by capitalism; and it was trying to maintain the economy and distribute its products and services according to the ideological criteria which were applied from the very beginning (and if there were a change as a function of time, the hardcore socialist rules were loosening after a few decades). It wasn't exciting; socialism was the ultimate example of boredom. Half a century of boredom. Also, some socialist countries including Czechoslovakia were extremely fiscally conservative and avoided any substantial debt.

The U.S. and other countries are still formally living in some kind of capitalism but things are changing. The new system is similar to the Soviet-style socialism in many ways but it may be more dramatic. Many pathologies are similar – such as the lack of competition (so far in some industries such as the Internet services), the political control over the economy (through regulation and often more directly) and the related nepotism, and the central or quasi-central indoctrination and intimidation of the populace which influences an increasing portion of the financial flows. But details are different. The commies effectively owned the means of production but (almost) none of them (some dictators were exceptions) was allowed to embrace truly luxurious lifestyles. These days, the counterparts of the communist elites may still be billionaires and live correspondingly.

In the previous paragraph, I mentioned that an increasing fraction of the financial flows are determined by the new government and quasi-government (including the Silicon Valley monopolies) and by the loosely centralized indoctrination and intimidation. A quantity is increasing here. Can we be pessimists and extrapolate these trends to some truly grim, and perhaps singular, outcome?

Wednesday, January 06, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Democrats' Senate takeover is a national, global catastrophe

It seems that both Senate seats will go to the Democrats, the worthless young empty suit and the problematic reverend. Joe Biden is destined to become the U.S. president, the Democrats possess a narrow majority in the House, and they will have 50-50 in the Senate which really means a Senate majority because in these conditions, the VP (which will be Kamala Harris) may submit the decisive 51st vote.

Inkspillers have been brainwashing the increasingly stupid readers with lots of conspiracy theories and stories about the Armageddon, the non-existent global warming crisis, the new Covid Black Death which is really just a new and therefore more deadly flu-like strain, and other things. But logically enough, today, when the world's only superpower made the crucial steps towards the abyss, you can't learn about the actual looming Armageddon from any "mainstream" place.

Tuesday, January 05, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

Belorusian Covid death data are self-evidently rigged

They may be still doing great with Covid but the data can't be right in their entirety

According to the tables and maps, Lukashenko's Belarus – which has wisely avoided Covid restrictions, both at the level of government orders and the personal behavior of most people – only has 15 Covid deaths per 100,000 people now while e.g. Czechia has 115 deaths per 100,000 people (about 7.7 times higher than Belarus).



It would be a great argument for the Belorusian approach. Too bad, I don't really believe their data now. Look at their national statistics page and find the chart of the daily deaths. Like other Belorusian charts, it's unusually smooth and stable. Can these daily numbers occur by chance? The answer is a resounding No.

Monday, January 04, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

UV, dynamical problems are problems with a theory; IR, kinematic problems are just hard work for users

Elias Archer has asked whether and how string theory solves "difficulties and complications" that he sees in the quantum field theory on curved spacetime backgrounds. Well, I do understand this kind of a question. When I was leaving the high school, I still wasn't quite comfortable with quantum mechanics and I did think that string theory would revolutionize the understanding of the measurement so that it would look more materialistic, deterministic, or classical. This idea evaporated in a year; of course the postulates of quantum mechanics are extremely universal and string theory doesn't change anything about these rules and philosophy that are shared by all quantum mechanical theories. And there are no problems with the general postulates of quantum mechanics.

But this broader theme is generally repeated. We the people often misunderstand something about an "older, approximate theory" and expect the "newer theory" to fix the problems or "difficulties and complications". In some situations, the expectations are justified (and sometimes they succeed); in others, they are wrong because our misunderstanding of the "older theory" is our personal misunderstanding that we shoud solve by thinking harder – we really don't understand even the "older theory" correctly and this cognitive problem of ours has nothing to do with the changes that are made by the "newer theory".

Friday, January 01, 2021 ... Deutsch/Español/Related posts from blogosphere

EFT-hedron: the landscape within the EFT quagmire



Physicists have clearly worked more intensely during the Christmas and New Year break than the arXiv.org moderators. Consequently, the hep-th archive overwhelmed us with 168 new preprints hours ago (whose identifiers still start with the year '20), including 70 new hep-th-primary papers, 35 new papers cross-listed to hep-th, and 63 replacements. That's some 200% above the daily average.

You may ask which of the new papers is going to be most influential. Well, you have to be cautious, we don't really know. But you may also ask which of them is the longest one. A good idea is to search for -Hamed on the page and you will quickly find this new paper:

The EFT-Hedron
by Nima Arkani-Hamed, Cchu-Čen Huang, Ju-tin Huang (IAS, Caltech, Taiwan)
If you care whether you should write it with a hyphen, it is spelled 3 times with and 61 times without. ;-) Note that even though this paper appeared on January 1st in the morning, it's the 66th paper on that day and is still counted in 2020, unlike the Weak Gravity Conjecture that appeared as the first hep-th paper of 2006.

Well, two days ago, I had a fun two-hour-long chat with one of the authors whose name isn't Huang (not only about the Millenials' lack of independence and ambitions) and he prepared me for that paper. Sometime in 2021, a paper of mine could appear and you might like it. Well, it's January 1st in the morning and it's here. ;-) Unless he meant a different paper that will appear later, of course.

(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){ (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o), m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m) })(window,document,'script','//www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js','ga'); ga('create', 'UA-1828728-1', 'auto'); ga('send', 'pageview');