Saturday, February 27, 2021

Millions of Czechs will strongly violate the draconian restrictions

It's often said that 40% of Czechs totally oppose most of the non-cosmetic Covid-19 restrictions and my reading of the in-real-life interactions as well as the Internet discussions agrees with this estimate (yes, of course, I am inside this 40% group). And yes, of course I think that this natural support for "ordinary freedoms needed to live ordinary lives at the individual level" (something that even all the foreign overlords respected at almost all times) is also the main reason why Czechia leads the world in the number of "Covid-19 cases" per million people – and I am proud about it. The number of Covid-19 cases really is a great approximation for a moral virtue in a nation. After the announcements last night, the anger in the discussions is intense and omnipresent.

Even though the Czech Parliament has refused to extend even the mild state of emergency that has existed so far, the Czech government has decided to introduce a new one with much more draconian measures from Monday, March 1st. So the face masks are mandatory outside and on the workplace; cloth masks aren't enough; two face masks or a respirator are needed in the public transportation (and...) and the grocery stores, almost all other shops are ordered to be shut down (exceptions are scheduled to drop by 50%, flower shops remain the most surprising exception, they're claimed to be open to remember the Covid victims but only 1-2 persons die in a district each day and what about the remaining thousands of flowers?).

But the restrictions on the movement seem most shocking and they almost resemble the Australian insanities. Every movement to another district (Czechia is divided to 76 districts plus Prague that will act as one district, good for them) must be justified by some incredible paperwork, a receipt from the employer or the doctor or something like that. So any "casual" movement in between the districts (like that of the people who have a romantic relationship in the adjacent municipality; or even the visit to parents or kids who live elsewhere) is claimed by the government to be banned from Monday (millions of people actively say that this is an inhuman restriction). One can walk a dog but only 500 meters from his home, and only during the day. Very shockingly, people who will be located on their cottage on Sunday night must stay there (or at least in the same district) for three weeks (the cottage will legally become their home for these purposes)!

For most movements, one needs paperwork even to move outside the municipality, to another one even if it is in the same district. I don't even plan to try to understand these things because thank God, my municipality of Pilsen is basically my district Pilsen-City and is large enough, 137.65 squared kilometers. Also, I hope that these insanities will be canceled soon so it's a waste of time to study this junk.

Some articles mention that this incredible blockade is supposed to be enforced by soldiers, too. Well, it's 5,000 soldiers, you can read in several outlets. It's clearly supposed to be a "demonstration of power" except that it is absolutely ludicrous. There are about 4,000,000 Czechs who are really, really pißed off at this moment, and determined not to obey these restrictions of the movement, aside from other excessive restrictions of basic rights. How do they want 5,000 soldiers to physically prevent the pressure from 4,000,000 people?

You may look at the situation locally. Each of the 77 (effective) districts has some 30 roads connecting it with other districts (and I will generously overlook the fact that it's easy to cross outside roads, through the greenery). OK, I haven't counted them but mine is an estimate. That's some 2,000 places on the boundaries of districts where people might cross to another district (intersections of roads and boundaries between districts). If you have mastered the concept of division, you may compute 5,000 over 2,000 and you will find out that... "Two And a Half Men" will stand on each of these intersections. How will these 2.5 men prevent a gang of 50 really angry (and, in many cases, horny) men from going to the adjacent district?

The actual situation is actually much harder because the pro-freedom sentiments obviously exist within the army, too. So unless they perform a really difficult screening of the soldiers, some 40% of the 2.5 men on the crossing may be strongly opposed to any restrictions. As a result, there is an internal fight between this 1 man (who wants to behave like the good soldier Švejk and effectively turn his overlords' authority to a joke) and the remaining 1.5 men on the crossing. In fact, only a small minority of the 1.5 men really wants to fight for the lockdown. Even if the pro-lockdown soldiers win the civil war within the 2.5 men, the residual force is some 0.2 men per crossing who will have to prevent all the people from a district – some 100,000 people in average – from crossing to the adjacent district.

The demonstration of the force is completely ludicrous and fake. The government doesn't actually have the political support for similar insanities and it doesn't have the physical strength to impose them, either. The overreach is amazing. You know, the government shouldn't respect the will of the population just because it's a nice, democratic attitude to governance. The government normally needs to respect the will of the population because the laws of physics make this adaptation unavoidable. If the government folks want to continue their lives, they should better study the concept of the Defenestrations of Prague and Operation Anthropoid because the declaration of total war on a very large fraction of the Czech nation isn't necessarily the safest thing to do in Prague.

We will also see what the Parliament will do. The government has the right to declare a new state of emergency but the Parliament may always terminate it by a vote. All these battles are completely insane especially now when it is clear that the propagation of the virus is collapsing globally and we are almost certainly at most a week or two weeks from the same development in Czechia, too (while it seems easy now to lend excessive patients to German and perhaps other hospitals if they materialize). The more contagious mutations added a month to the epidemics in Czechia but the decrease will be faster than it would be without these more contagious mutations, too.