## Sunday, July 04, 2021 ... //

### What robust herd immunity does: 4 Czech ICU patients only

Colombia has a 440 times higher fraction of population as serious Covid patients than Czechia

The Czech government sometimes behaved rather sensibly but its overall behavior in the epoch of Covidism has been as terrible as that of the average Western government (in some restrictions, it was saner, in others such as keeping the schoolkids away from schools, it was worse than the average).

Thankfully, in their everyday habitats, the Czech public behaved differently and something like 50% of us never bought the Covid-19 propaganda, remained calm, and used all available tools and cooperation to circumvent most of the unconstitutional restrictions, especially restrictions of the truly basic activities. Correspondingly, at the level of the everyday lives, most of the relevant people behaved normally. That also led to more natural, faster dynamics of the pandemics when it was taking place – and to very robust (mostly natural) herd immunity.

It is herd immunity towards pre-delta variants. The Indian delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 belongs among the common cold viruses. Correspondingly, the $$R_0\approx 5-8$$ and almost all countries with a nonzero presence of this nearly harmless virus are almost guaranteed to see some "growth of delta" – unless all their regions and otherwise sliced subcommunities enjoy at least 80-90% of the immunity rate which most countries simply don't have, especially not among youth where the vaccination rate is generally low (for extremely good reasons).

What matters are the truly sick people and the dead. The most recent 7 daily death numbers on our statistics page say 0,0,0,1,1,1,0. Just 3 deaths in 7 days, 0.43 per day in average. That's way down from the peak, 237 deaths on March 15th, 2021.

Similarly, you may check the graph of hospitalizations and ICU/serious patients in Czechia (see and click the picture above). The peak of hospitalizations occurred also on March 15th, the exact same day as the peak of deaths (no delay at all!), and it was 9466 patients. The peak of the ICU/serious patients occurred one day later, March 16th, 2021, and it was 2064. The most recent figures published on Sunday morning, 8 am, are 33 patients including 4 ICU/serious ones (down from 8 a day earlier!), in the whole country of 10.7 million. These figures are 0.34% and 0.19% of the peak values! A great majority of Czech hospitals have zero Covid-positive patients and the serious ones are truly rare, 4 per 80 hospitals.

It is not hard to look at the graph above and confirm that Covid-19 as a health problem is simply over in Czechia. In February, dishonest left-wing media were presenting Czechia as a country with an ongoing Armageddon. I was getting e-mails from totally brainwashed Californian professors who were sending me condolences. Of course, nothing qualitatively unusual was happening in Czechia and the life remained happier in Czechia than in virtually all other European countries at all times.

There were just a few weeks of "real pandemics" when the death rate almost doubled. While it was a negative thing in the short term, it became a clear positive thing in the medium and long term. It is this other side of the story – the fact that it was an excellent idea for the Czech public to allow Covid-19 to "get through without some hysterical resistance" – that is not covered by the deceitful global leftist media at all. They simply cherry-pick, overhype, and distort the convenient numbers only – those that seem useful to turn nations into herds of braindead sheep.

OK, let me take the number "4 ICU patients in Czechia" and compare it with the numbers of serious patients in other countries in Europe and North America (plus a few others). In Europe, I will omit countries below 1 million people unless their serious patients count is above 5. OK, here you have a list of latest "serious patients per 1 million of population".

162. Colombia
152. Chile
126. Argentina
81.8 Paraguay
71.3 Peru
71.3 Zambia
39.4 Brazil
39.0 Iran
37.5 Mexico
30.8 Thailand
18.8 Moldova
18.4 Cuba
17.4 Philippines
16.5 Greece
16.4 France
16.0 Russia
14.0 Lithuania
12.5 Spain
12.0 North Macedonia
11.9 Portugal
11.6 U.S.
11.0 Belgium
9.65 Montenegro
8.56 Turkey
8.33 Latvia
8.17 Slovenia
7.11 Germany
6.55 India
6.54 Netherlands
5.69 Slovakia
4.97 Austria
4.50 U.K.
4.09 Switzerland
3.99 Ukraine
3.95 Japan
3.87 Israel
3.77 Estonia
3.62 Sweden
3.45 Romania
3.38 Italy
2.85 Ireland
2.45 Croatia
2.32 Poland
2.24 Hungary
1.99 Finland
1.72 Denmark
1.29 Serbia
1.05 Albania
0.75 Norway
0.37 Czechia

Belarus reports 0 but Belorusian data were previously self-evidently rigged. But you may see some facts that are not really reported by the media. In particular, many Latin American countries have truly overfilled ICUs in the hospitals now and Brazil's density of such patients is just 25% of that of Colombia and a few other countries. Brazil is doing relatively well now because it's been also more relaxed.

Most importantly, the distasteful inkspillers who were slinging mud on Czechia won't tell anybody that Czechia is the cleanest country again – because they don't want to admit that typical Czechs' giving their middle finger to the Covid-19 was exactly the best thing that all nations should have done. It is inconvenient for them exactly because the masses' obedience to nasty liars justifying their terror against whole nations by junk science is what makes the fake news media and their fellow travelers powerful and wealthy.

But you see that except for Norway and Czechia (and the Norwegian rate is still twice the Czech one), all European countries have between 1 and 20 serious patients per 1 million citizens now. Moldova and Greece are the leaders between 16 and 19 but some extra Western European countries are almost this high in the list, too. Germany has been often presented as a good example but it has over 7 ICU patients per million people – that number is greater than the Czech counterpart by a factor of nineteen! The secret is that Germany doesn't really have herd immunity yet (not even relatively to the old variants; and summer conditions when the spreading is harder for the virus) and it is still artificially suppressing the spreading of the virus by draconian restrictions that aren't economically sustainable.

But even countries that have achieved herd immunity such as the U.K. have seen the number of serious patients drop much less than Czechia. For example, the British figure of 4.50 is greater than the Czech 0.37 by a factor of twelve. Although Covid-19 may be said to be a negligible problem in both countries by now, a factor of 12 is a lot. During the most relevant decrease in Czechia, all these daily quantities were getting halved in 10 days or so. 19 and 12 represent 4.2 and 3.6 doublings (those are the base-two logarithms). With the halving time of 10 days, 4.2 and 3.6 translate to 42 and 36 days, respectively. So the drop in Czechia is over a month ahead of some other countries in the "qualitatively" identical situation. But the drop of the disease is slower (the halving time is longer than 10 days) there so it could be 2-3 months of their dynamics.

At any rate, my point is that almost all the aspects of the situation that were considered a disadvantage in February 2021 (or any other moment in the past) simply turned into an advantage now (or another later point or the future) and it was inevitable. So all nationwide efforts to "fight" Covid-19 have always been manifestations of the nations' or governments' myopia – and it was a breathtakingly expensive myopia that has globally cost over \$10 trillion, not to mention deeper losses that can't be easily quantified. Everyone who uses his brain must have known for quite some time (I have been writing essays about it since March 2020) that (whenever it was impossible to send the number of daily cases towards zero and keep it that way, and it was only feasible in heavily anti-democratic countries) all the artificial suppression of Covid-19 was just delaying the events that would come whether someone liked it or not, often just by days or weeks (logarithmically short time scales).

Even now, when the fresh deaths and hospital data show that all Covid-19 emergencies, if they ever occurred at all, have been over for months, nasty lying corrupt parasites have gained so much influence that our government still restricts us and, in many situations, it even wants to harden the restrictions just because of some increases of the number of cases which is a totally irrelevant number whenever the character of the disease is changing. All physicians must know that Covid-19 as a disease is basically non-existent in Czechia, we have the herd immunity towards all variants that are substantially harmful, and it is just totally insane to extend the restrictions into the future.

I believe that the Czech nation will ultimately not allow this insanity to continue and if the minister or the government wants to continue, despite the absence of Covid-19 patients, there will be another defenestration of Prague.

We know almost everything about the disease and its dynamics now, at least I do. It is very clear what should have happened instead. We should have said "absolutely no restrictions" and encourage young healthy people or groups outside risk to get through the infection as quickly as possible, while recommending the risk groups to hide for some time. We would have gotten the growth of Covid -19 by an order of magnitude in a week. The disease would have grown to the peak and dropped to the peak within 2 months (everything in Spring 2020; two months would be the estimate for "how long the risk groups are recommended to hide") and the total death tally would be about the same 30,000 as we have now (and maybe much lower if the temporary isolation of the elderly were somewhat successful). Yes, we would have gotten days with 500+ extra deaths (on top of the normal 300) but those would have been just the temporally concentrated suffering. A whole year of extra restrictions (one one trillion crowns in economic losses) would be totally avoided.

Update: A day later, on Monday 8 am, the fresh figure revealed another dramatic drop of the hospital numbers. Hospitalized patients went from 33 to 30. Serious patients went from 4 to 2 in one day, another 50% decrease in a day. The recent daily deaths were 0,0,0,1,1,1,0,0. The Czech number 0.37 in the table above (ICU patients per million) should be replaced with 0.19, you surely know how to do it.