Saturday, October 09, 2021

Despite 20% predictions, just 2% of the Czech Parliament will be the Pirates

When I took the picture of the Piratostan bus and these Pirates, I told the comical Pirate that he must expect to be photographed, this is why he wore the hat, right? No, I was told, he wore the hat in order for other Pirates to identify him as a Pirate! ;-) A mature party LOL. I took a picture of their boss Bartoš and many other things there a week ago.

Czechia has more advanced voting procedures than the US or Germany so 1-2 hours after the voting rooms closed at 2 pm on Satuday (they opened at 2 pm on Friday), we had extremely accurate predictions. My Tricolor #8 didn't get in, its 2.76% was highly compatible with the average predictions of the agencies (the Tricolor will get $5 for each voter, about $500,000 in total). But after 100 years, communists dropped of the Parliament (the party was founded in 1921 and it became Stalinist in 1929). Good riddance. Social democracy dropped from the Parliament, too. They were below 5%, and so was the Pledge led by the cop Šlachta (who removed Nečas' government because Nečas' love got a nice purse, and two very similar "crimes").

So only 4 "parties or coalitions" got to the Parliament, a seemingly big drop from 9 after the 2017 elections. This drop is largely spurious, however, because Together and Piratostan are coalitions of 3 and 2 (different enough) parties, respectively. Ex-president Klaus rightfully said that these pre-election coalitions are just a way to deceive the voters and obfuscate the differences in important questions.

OK, out of the 200 lawmakers in the lower chamber, PM Babiš' YES (ANO) movement has 72 deputies or so; the Together (Spolu) coalition has 71 (the numbers of votes for ANO and Together are statistically tied), Piratostan has 37, and Okamura's nationalist SPD has 20. Because of the slide of ANO and SPD in the later portions of the counting process, ANO and SPD have just 92 lawmakers, not enough for a coalition. It means that the complement, Together and Piratostan, has 108 which is enough for a coalition. ANO+Together is enough for a constitutional majority, and as the split numbers show, even ANO+ODS is enough for a coalition (106).

In recent months, the potential Pirates+Together meta-coalition (post-election coalition of pre-election coalitions) was the darkest scenario for me because it's the most likely meta-coalition that may want to turn Czechia into an EU Protectorate, especially because of the Pirates. Even though Babiš will be ordered by President Zeman to start to build a government (Babiš is both the strongest party leader and Zeman's favorite one), he may fail because SPD isn't enough and Piratostan+Together may tell him No (no one expects a Pirate-ANO coalition). However, there is a wonderful silver lining in this dark scenario.

Piratostan got 37 lawmakers in total but you may still distinguish the Pirates from the Mayors (STAN). It turns out that the Mayors got 33 and... the Pirates only got 4 lawmakers! ;-) This is the most wonderful result of the 2021 Czech Parliamentary elections, a much happier result than the elimination of the communists and social democrats. Three damn far left Pirates in the Parliament. I have already memorized all their names: Olga Richterová, Klára Kocmanová (two females), Ivan Bartoš. And maybe Jakub Michálek (the boss of the club so far; he's been appearing and disappearing in the preliminary results). Because Together and Piratostan have about 108 lawmakers, Together and STAN – which used to be called the Demobloc – has about 104 lawmakers, still barely enough for a majority, even without the three Pirates. Such a government would clearly seem less catastrophic than a government dominated by Pirates.

Because of their truly unreliable behavior and their Merkel-like drift to the left, I find the Demobloc worse than any realistic coalition led by Babiš' ANO. On the other hand, a Demobloc government is better than the Pirate one. A decade ago, and maybe even some 4 years ago, the Demobloc-like governments were the golden standards that I actually preferred, in comparison with other realistic choices, although my excitement was weakening as ODS was separating from Klaus and moving to the center. These days, I no longer prefer it because ODS isn't even a center party, it is (so far moderately) a left-wing one. But there are at least some mostly sensible, brave people left in ODS, the main part of Together. It would be worse than the status quo but hopefully not catastrophically worse.

The split of the Together candidates is also better than random: ODS 34, KDU-ČSL 23, TOP 09 14: the parties are ordered according to the right-wing credentials which agrees with their size. Note that TOP 09 are the fanatical globalist "progressives" (ludicrously calling themselves right-wing, the only difference from the far left Pirates). There are 4 Pirates plus 14 TOP 09 lawmakers, or 18 moldy strawberries in total (among 200, i.e. 9%), of fanatically pro-EU lawmakers in the Czech Parliament. Under normal circumstances, it should mean that some massive EU-led devastation should be impossible. However, the EU is making it clear that it wants to completely liquidate the power of the national Parliaments, courts, constitutions, and democracy, and to introduce a direct dictatorship across the continent, governed by Brussels. I sincerely hope that a big majorty of the 185 not-fanatically-pro-Leyen deputies will see the severity of the situation if the relationships with the EU get even more severe.

P.S.: I forgot to say that the Pirates and Mayors had an agreement not to encourage the voters to circle individual candidates (personal preferrential votes). This agreement turned out to be a failing one. The "discrimination" did happen and the Pirates lost the intra-coalition war miserably. It would be interesting to know why it happened. Maybe the Pirate voters found the circling too difficult. Or they were not sufficiently motivated to "punish" the Mayors and elevate the Pirates. Or, maybe even more interestingly, the Pirate voters don't know how to use the Internet and social networks and encourage other similar voters to circle the Pirates. The last explanation would be cute for a party that has pretended to be ingenious with the computers and communication! ;-) At any rate, good riddance, commies, socialists, Pirates (but 3), and TOP 09 (but 12).

While the fraction of truly moldy strawberries is just 9%, I find the whole new Parliament to be a very unreliable protection against the most dangerous threats of the present. So it may be expected that, at a slower pace than some other countries, this Parliament will lead the Czech nation towards some neo-Marxist dystopia that is clearly devouring Western Europe now, too. It seems pretty clear that what the nation voted for were mostly weak, spineless, and colorless politicians who want the moderate progress within the bounds of the law (Mr Petr Fiala is a template of those). Sad. A big majority of the people just don't have a fudging clue.

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