Friday, November 26, 2021

Farcical pseudoscience of the new South African variant

Omicron is a dumb story designed to bring the Coronazi ultramorons' hysteria to an even higher level

In the morning, I needed some 10 minutes to find out why the stock futures are collapsing today. Yes, when the movements are sharp, there is usually a single explanation (while the attributions of smaller, noise-like movements are usually fuzzy fairy-tales) and today it is
A new Covid-19 variant could show immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility, South African scientists warn (CNN)
Oh I see. So some African "scientists" have found a new genetic code of a SARS-CoV-2 descendant and called it the B.1.1.529 variant, also called "omicron" by the WHO or "nu" by others or (by the nutty Belgian PM) Covid-21. It has the highest number of mutations and maybe, perhaps, it will not only be more transmissible but also evade the immune system and other things. Millions of people clearly buy the garbage "science" news every day and today, this stuff is apparently enough to subtract 4% from DAX (the German index) while the Prague Index only lost 1.67% at the end (thank God, a lukewarm version of the psychopathy is here); some of the drop is "justifiable" by the fact that politicians are discussing new travel bans and similar things again (VIX, the index of fear, goes up damn 46%). How totally braindead do you have to become to buy something like that and react in this way? I am absolutely shocked by the sheer stupidity of so many people.



Botswana

In fact, everyone who believes any alarmism sold as "science" is a completely braindead pile of šit. There has never been a single prediction made by these alarmist scientists that turned out to be accurate and useful. Instead, virtually every single meme that these "scientists" (which are not scientists in the proper sense) have ever produced to get their dirty money has been deeply harmful for our societies because almost all of them have pushed millions of people to behave completely irrationally.



What do useful predictions by experts look like? Those who understand Czech may play this January 2021 interview with ex-president Klaus. In that one-minute-long segment, Klaus warned about the low efficacy and the dangerous side effects of Covid vaccines – which were already known and those who actually studied these things (which is something completely different than mindlessly accepting the omnipresent MSM crap) already discussed then – but especially about the increasingly mandatory character of vaccination. Under the influence of media and other organizations, he predicted, the vaccination would soon become mandatory. The host assertively disagreed. Who could possibly want others to be mandatorily vaccinated, he asked? At that time, much of the "mainstream" media attacked Klaus as a conspiracy theorist. At the very same time, in early 2021, he was even listed as one of the two most prominent "sources of Covid misinformation" according to the Czech ministry of health.

He was right on the money, just like he was capable of predicting the decline of freedom and democracy in the EU (he surely disliked the EU well before I did, so I understand that I was far from being the most far-reaching visionary in these topics!), the escalating fanaticism of climate alarmists and others, and so many other things. These predictions were no coincidences – Klaus isn't really a chronic emitter of mutually contradicting predictions of all kinds (let alone science-fiction-style conspiracy theories). He hasn't made many predictions that turned out to be completely wrong. He is so often right in such nontrivial predictions because he actually understands the human behavior. He is brilliant and he has studied the relevant things, especially the evolution of people's political and ideological thinking and its interaction with the real world events, for most of his 80-year-long life. Everyone whose properly quantified IQ is above 130 must be capable at least of seeing that an average inkspiller or media-savvy demagogue simply isn't in Klaus' league. Almost all the stuff served by the MSM media is just some randomly amplified and mutated noise and BS.



But what about the alarmist "science"? All of it has always been a corrupt industry that started with predetermined answers (which is what science shouldn't really do) and that allowed the "scientists" to get lots of grants and influence for their sensational claims (simply because the sensationalism and ideological convenience have been more decisive for the funding than accuracy for many years); and that has made millions of gullible people fearful which has led to many insane individual decisions as well as suicidal decisions of whole corporations, nations, and blocs (Europe's Green Deal is a major culmination of the mass psychosis). Just try to remember all the catastrophic predictions about the climate. Not a single one has ever been accurate, reliable, and nontrivial enough to be useful. By now (or 2015), the life on Earth should have ended or at least the ice sheets should have disappeared or... A random generator of sentences of "roughly the same kind" would be equally useless.

Look at the Arctic Ice. The area is actually greater than the bottom 10% of the 1981-2010 numbers now, it is just some 1.5 sigma below the normal. The Arctic Ice may easily grow to above-the-normal level rather soon. Or look at the October 2021 temperatures in Czechia. Relatively to the 1961-1990 benchmark period, the temperature anomaly was... 0.0 °C. It was as average an October as you can get, with quite some insane precision. We are used to headlines of the type "global warming has caused a terrible cooling" etc. But how do you create alarming headlines about this number 0.0 °C? Climate change has caused catastrophically stagnant temperatures in Czechia!

All the predictions saying that something unusual and unusually bad was happening with the climate in the bulk of the globe have been completely mocked by the reality. They have been proven to be absolute garbage and everyone who believes that there is a reason to be concerned about the climate is an absolute imbecile who is unable to evaluate even the most basic facts about the real world. The growing CO2 levels contribute a positive term to the temperature but there are hundreds of other terms and the CO2 can't be considered to be the decisive influence that decides about the questions about the weather that we care about. Almost all questions about the weather or the climate remain as random and noisy as they have always been! CO2 is almost completely irrelevant for pretty much everything that we may care about. Some colder temperatures in recent 1-2 years are mostly due to the La Niňa, a Pacific Ocean pattern, not CO2. A few decades of dominant La Niňas may very well lead to decades of a cooling.

Great. Now Covid-19. Clearly, some new type of a virus has been either released or engineered or modified in a (partly U.S.-funded) Chinese lab in Wuhan. It could have been prevented if the lab were closed and/or Anthony Fauci were executed a few years ago but no one found it important then (and even now!). So the virus came out and became a part of Nature which is probably (but not certainly) more capable of survival than most strains of flu and types of respiratory viruses. So dreaming about its complete disappearance may be less realistic than dreaming about the eradication of flu.

It has caused a flu-like epidemic in many regions of the world, especially the West, which was some 3+ times worse than typical flu seasons; but less deadly than the 1918 Spanish flu (especially if you study the fraction of the population that died; and it wasn't mostly the old and ill who were dying in 1918!), let alone some medieval pandemics. From the beginning, a valid argument was that the disease would try to mutate to become more contagious – because more contagious variants simply win the "reproduction races" – but that increased transmissibility would also make the disease less dangerous. Along with some growing immunity in the world population, that would mean that the Covid-19-based diseases would transform to another segment of the common cold, relatively minor recurrent seasonal infectious respiratory diseases.

The real world clearly seems to follow this scenario. Just look at the first graph at This Euromomo page which describes the overall deaths in a subset of European countries (and regions), roughly 1/2 of (mostly Western) Europe. There is no statistically significant excess of deaths in (quasi-Western) Europe now. All the hysteria is just a fabricated mass psychosis by now. The permanent repetition of lies has made hundreds of millions of scientifically illiterate, impressionable people believe that a positive Covid PCR test means something very bad, and because the cold-like disease easily produces positive PCR results now (for people outside hospitals, inside hospitals, and in crematoriums, too), people are fed with the idea that a shocking deadly wave is causing lots of dying. Except that it isn't. It is hard to predict whether the excess of deaths in the 2021-2022 cold season will be positive or negative but the tally probably won't differ from the average by too many sigmas. It is likely that we are better at curing Covid than we were at curing flu 2 years ago.

But the main point I want to make in this text is that all the would-be "fancy theoretical research" in the genetics of Covid has been a corrupt and therefore useless enterprise and people would do much better if they just followed "clearly observable facts" and common sense and completely ignored all the factoids that seem too technical or too contrived.

Just think about the amount of stuff that inkspillers have written about the mutations of the novel coronavirus; and about the message that these articles tried to convey. And compare it with the events that we have actually experienced. If you are not a total moron, you must know that virtually all of the "technical factoids" were completely irrelevant and misleading noise; and the only true purpose of all these articles was to make the readers "more hysterical than ever before" which has never followed from the scientific facts. I admit that I am partly driven up the wall because the authors of all this stunning garbage are presented as "scientists" as if they were comparable e.g. to me. They are not. They are not scientists in the same sense as I am (or other scholars whom I respect); they are either corrupt or totally dumb intellectual prostitutes (usually both).

Take the fresh CNN article about the South African variant of Covid-19. What do they say? The real point is that every suggestion they make is designed to increase the hysteria; but this conclusion is irrational in 100% of the cases. OK, so
Officials also expressed concern that the mutation could result in immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility of the virus, ...
Why is this news? Officials are just random morons who speak BS just like other morons and there is obviously nothing more happening over there. The British ministers are primarily afraid of Covid spread by their farts. Great. Does it mean that this is science when a moron who happens to be a British minister has been trained to be particularly scared of Covid in farts? Most kids in kindergartens may invent a sentence combining a poop and Covid, too. Do you really have more reasons to think that a British minister's poop is smarter than the small kid's poop? Should the media spread this kind of a meme? These memes are obviously way more dangerous than Covid in farts itself.

The same comment applies to the transmissability of the South African mutation. Some mutations make the virus more transmissible, others make it less transmissible. In the short term, the two options are pretty much equally likely, mutations are random. The same comments apply to random wiggles in the stock markets. In the short term, the wiggles are random. But in the longer term, there are systematic asymmetric effects. In the case of evolution, and it applies to mutations of viruses as well, the more transmissible species and variants tend to win because they reproduce faster. After some time, the signal emerges from the noise. This is really the basic mechanism that was discovered or appreciated by Charles Darwin. Do you understand that? You should because this is material taught to schoolkids in elementary schools.

So unless you have been brainwashed to become a zombie who passionately follows every sentence at CNN, trying to see a doom in every other word, you know that the sentence above just says "irrelevant morons baselessly speculated about the sign of the trend of transmissibility in a completely irrelevant mutation of Covid somewhere in the desert or the bushveld, a sign that they cannot know and that affects absolutely nothing, anyway".

The very question whether some particular, so far rare, variant is more transmissible or less transmissible is an absolutely unimportant factoid, and the CNN and its sources don't even have any evidence whatsoever to bring you the correct answer about the sign. It is totally possible that this South African variant is more transmissible than the first Delta (Indian variant) or other mutations but that doesn't mean that it is bad news because most of the time, a higher transmissibility makes the disease more cold-like and therefore less dangerous.

Similar comments apply to the question whether the variant is actually more capable of circumventing the immune system. New mutations tend to behave as new species with new shapes so most of them can be more or less invisible to the antibodies that were produced to fight the viruses' non-identical ancestors. This is really a basic insight about virology – well, a universal insight about all of biology or Darwin's evolution – something that you should have known from the age of 10 or so and you shouldn't need to read this stuff in CNN. The CNN article contains zero new relevant information and it can only push you to buy or sell stocks (or prevent people from returning from their exotic vacation) if you are a hopelessly brainwashed moron. Sadly, there are clearly gigatons of such morons in the market (and among the top politicians and bureaucrats). Divide gigatons by some 70 kg, it is a lot of idiots, indeed.

So they don't really know whether the transmissibility is higher or lower, whether the ability of the variant to circumvent the immune system is lower or higher, but they want the reader to pick the worse scenario (and they want policymaking to continue or escalate all the crippling restrictions) because this is how the gigatons of šitty imbeciles have been trained to behave for many years by now. It is the precautionary principle, the people are always encouraged to believe the worse scenario, the most extreme fantasy that someone emits from his aß, even if the detachment from reality becomes truly insane and spectacularly or comically obvious. This is why majorities in many Western nations believe that over 20% of the Covid-infected people die and similar lunacies. It was de facto a flu and it is mostly a fucking common cold by now. Scum may have harassed those who point out these basic inconvenient truths but this bullying couldn't make the truths any less true! And it didn't.

Without a glimpse of evidence, the CNN article makes the dumb readers believe that there is a more scary variant somewhere (no fearmongering about variants has ever turned out to be true and important in the past) because it is more transmissible but also more resilient towards the humans' immune reaction. But they also make it "sciencey" by quantifying how many bases have mutated. Great. So this South African virus has over 30 mutations in the "key spike protein". Whoever is more fearful after having read this sentence is a tremendously manipulated simpleton, indeed.

All previous hysterias about mutations were proven crazy and totally wrong; all mutations were either minor or making things better or both. The only important mutation was delta, also known as the Indian variant, and it clearly made the situation less grave. Also, look at the damn India, the cradle of delta, to see that they have almost no Covid now and the overall deaths with Covid per million were just 10% of the typical European ones.

30 is just some random number. 30 is greater than e.g. 15 but that doesn't mean that a virus with 30 mutations is more dangerous than a virus with 15 mutations. These numbers have absolutely no direct relationship with the degree of justifiable fear or with the right way to treat the virus (in an individual patient or in a nation). But tons of morons have been trained to immediately translate "30 mutations" or "28,000 cases" to a "30-like huge problem" or "28,000-like huge problem". All this translation is completely and totally wrong. The number of mutations (like the number of "cases") has absolutely no direct practical consequences that could be understood by a generic CNN reader and any reader who translates things in this way is a scientifically illiterate braindead sheep.

In the same way, the phrase "key spike protein" contains the word "key" which makes sloppy people think that the information in the sentence is also a "key", and therefore important, and that is why they should be more fearful. But this reasoning is completely wrong. The word "key" is only connected with the "spike protein". The sentence says that there are mutations there. Indeed, mutations affect every piece of the genetic code. It is a trivial fact about biology. A totally innocent tautology with no new content whatsoever. Mutations appear along the whole RNA molecule and one may find a variant that has a higher (or the highest) number of mutations in the spike protein. But that doesn't mean that this trait of the variant is more than a curiosity. So the word "key" is really inserted to manipulate the people into thinking that an unimportant piece of information is important. And this manipulation happens several times in pretty much every sentence and I think that many of the masterminds of such articles (which are copied by scum from fellow scum) know it very well that they are fraudulent (many of them have admitted it to me, and even publicly, what they write isn't about the truth but about the support for their "narratives"). But it has become normal in their "occupation".

Of course, I always saw this totally idiotic reasoning. Like the braindead critics of string theory who had a hissy fit because the number of string vacua in some class was 10500 or something like that. According to these individuals, a large number meant that things (and the theory) were very bad and this seems like a large number, indeed. Except that this reasoning is 100% irrational. The correct theory of Nature predicts numbers in the way She wants, it has its value for the electron mass and it has its number of phases of water and ice or the number of vacua that are siblings of ours. The purpose of science is to learn the truth (i.e. convey the information from Nature to humans, not in the opposite direction!) and if you don't like some of these numbers that result from a careful scientific research (and have no reasons to be considered wrong), it is your psychiatric problem tha you should settle with your psychiatrist (or move to a different multiverse). In reality, in science, all these numbers (number of vacua, number of mutations...) are just some totally cold numbers with no immediately valid "good" or "bad" interpretation. Everyone who has been translating these cold numbers to "good" or "bad" (and the leftists were always picking "bad" in recent decades) is just a manipulative dishonest stinky asshole, or a psychologically unstable puppet controlled by these evil people, not a person who communicates genuine science.

So the whole talk about the changes to transmissability, number of mutations, modified ability to resist the immune reaction etc. are just some sentence with no justifiable beef and no new information that are capable of making gigatons of morons fearful, anyway. It is not just about the quantities; it is the choice of the variant itself. The very idea that it has been established that the most important variant of Covid-19 as of November 2021 emerged in South Africa and Botswana is implausible.

Just think what had to be done in order to detect, describe, name, and hype this variant, and then to pick it and describe in the international media, and you will see that this chain is so contrived and dominated by arbitrary human decisions that it is simply implausible that the resulting CNN article reflects the scientific truth in any way. It is self-evidently vastly more likely that this is just some random outcome of a bunch of influential self-serving people who try to do something good for their own interests and who interact with other similar people in a certain way. First, the detailed genetic sequencing of the viruses is done rarely but it is still being done at many places of Earth. Lots of various mutations have been seen across the world, the mutations are unavoidable. Now, how did it happen that this particular South African mutation was chosen to produce the "big story"? It is obvious that it was all about some random contacts between not really honest humans. Someone in South Africa (where the number of positive cases and deaths is nearly zero now!) probably realized that he could become important by inventing a new horror about a new variant, despite his country's having almost no Covid now (which might have been simply whatever genetic code was found at a given place), and he just had contacts that led all the way to the international media to hype his story. He has almost certainly gained money and/or power by this exercise.

If such a media-savvy person existed in Nicaragua, Angola, Hiroshima, Egypt, or Turany (Slovakia), we could equally deal with a "scary" Nicaraguan variant, Angolan variant, Hiroshima variant, Egyptian variant, or Turany (Slovak) variant. It is so obvious that there is no beef here and if this branch of mutations turns out to be globally important, it will be a pure coincidence! In fact, even the identification of this variant with the South of Africa may be random noise because the variant also exists in Hong Kong and Israel, and maybe most countries of the world, too. I am pretty sure that the sequencers in Israel and Hong Kong had to be surprised that this particular mutation was so "hot", they probably knew about it for some time. Update: It is in Belgium, too. Of course, a problem is that it almost certainly won't be important but the manipulators will still claim credit for that outcome, instead of admitting that they were full of BS. And lots of people will give them this totally undeserved credit and this has been happening again and again for years now! No such a prediction of an important enough variant has ever worked in the past. It was always more reliable and practical to simply wait for the moment when a variant becomes much more widespread and then give more attention to it; the speculative premature promotion of variants has always led just to misallocation of resources and work. No proper research has been done that would imply that the South African mutation should get a huge attention now. Doctors should just cure the people. Drugs exist and they are damn good by today. They get some patients with a pneumonia-like or flu-like or cold-like illness (or blood clots or whatever) and they use the appropriate treatment. The genetic sequencing of the viruses is possible but it hasn't really been useful to cure the people! All this would-be "sciencey" stuff is just noise that is making gigatons of imbeciles believe that their great (and apparently growing?) fear of (shrinking and normalizing) Covid is justified by some high-brow science. It clearly isn't. Almost all the judgements "bad" or "good" about the data are completely irrational or fraudulent, the signs of the trends are often completely unknown, anyway, and the details of the genetic code are not helpful to pick the best treatment.

Just two years ago, virtually everyone would agree with me. People were not sequencing the genetic code of flu viruses all the time because they knew it was largely irrelevant. They took aspirin or whatever. In each region and season, a strain of flu was dominant but you get what you get. You don't really change anything about the outcome by inventing names and stories about some detailed mutations on the influenza's genetic code (those predictions are being used to optimize flu vaccines but it's debatable whether this optimization is too successful). People weren't frantically testing their noses. If you feel great, there is no reason to know whether a PCR or similar test is capable of finding some influenza virions on your nose. Yes, asymptomatic people could have always transferred some diseases but the preventive testing to fight a flu-like disease is clearly "too much prevention"! It is pathological for societies to behave in this way (a collective paranoia) and they pay dearly when these patterns of behavior spread.

This obsession with the tests and even with the irrelevant details of the viruses' genetic code is a novelty that emerged in the Covid era. It is presented as something that brought science to billions of people; something that made the cutting-edge biology relevant for the masses. In reality, it did just the opposite. It is just a scientifically sounding propaganda that has robbed billions of people of the last traces of scientific literacy and even common sense. It has turned tons of them to 100% manipulated zombie sheep because they ignore the important truths and scientific principles that they kind of understood, and parrot irrelevant and distorted factoids with conclusions that directly contradict even the most basic science. And that is really terrible because proper science – and even legitimate communication of science – is doing and must be doing just the opposite. It makes people react in a more rational (and more balanced), less emotional way; it makes people remember the important principles and ignore the manipulative distractions; and it ultimately makes individual people and whole nations react in (at least statistically) beneficial ways, instead of the suicidally destructive ones.

I simply suffer because the quality of science that is being promoted through this criminal CNN-like complex has been dropping dramatically and by now, what is sold as "science" is almost identical to what has been called "antiscience" for decades or centuries. Silly medieval superstitions including witch hunts with some completely ludicrous science-like buzzwords inserted into every sentence. It also applies at the level of the human sources of these memes; the people hyped as "scientists" are overwhelmingly corrupt and/or incompetent trash, much of which belongs to the jail for many years.

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